NFL playoff predictions for 2023 season: Eagles fall, Falcons rise, plus full division and wild-card picks

The debut of the Brinson Model™️ during Monday’s full win-loss record prediction breakdown for every single NFL team ahead of the 2023 season was such a raging success, Corporate asked me to dust off my proprietary projection process for some more fun the very next day. Which brings us to division title and wild-card picks, essentially my “way too early” playoff picks. 

Last year my good friend Jason La Canfora managed to hit on six of his eight division winners (only the Rams and Colts cost him a sweep), although his wild-card record left something to be desired. Picking NFL playoff teams in August is hard. Picking playoff teams in May … even harder! 

I plan to abide by the projection system here — any manual tweaks for my preferred selections usually comes during the actual projection process anyway. Plus, given all the fantastic feedback I’ve gotten from satisfied readers … how could I not??? 

Over on Instagram (follow me @WillBrinson if you want to yell at me for my picks!), I’ve been called “dry trash,” a “🤡” and a “doofus.” People asked how I “still have a job,” told me I “write with my ass,” that I’m “higher than Denver itself” … and someone even angrily complained I gave the 49ers a 12-5 record. 

Twitter (again @WillBrinson, come for the yelling, stay for the witty humor) wasn’t much better, although it was mostly Browns fans screaming about my giving them a 7-10 record. You know every NFL fanbase is delusional when Browns fans — despite Cleveland having four seasons with eight wins or more since 1999 — are apoplectic about a 7-10 record in May. Spoiler, Browns fans: You don’t win the division below! 

Angry optimism runs red through the NFL streets, my friends. Let’s dive back in!  (Note: Division winners are in bold; wild-card teams have an asterisk.)

Projected Standings

AFC East

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5) — Division winner
2. New York Jets (10-7)* — Wild-card team
3. New England Patriots (9-8)
4. Miami Dolphins (8-9)

A very easy selection for me at the top: Buffalo might be “down” after failing to beat the Chiefs again, but this roster is still loaded and — last I checked — Josh Allen is still very, very good. The presence of Aaron Rodgers can put up for debate “best quarterback in the division” but I’ll still take Allen relative to the continuity issues each of them face. If the Jets offense takes flight out of the gate — without any delays, even — this could be a different story. And I think the Jets will push Buffalo here as long as Rodgers stays upright and healthy. But Buffalo is great value in the betting market and definitely strong value in the prediction market if everyone and their brother is dabbling in Big Apple futures. 

AFC North

1. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) — Division winner
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)* — Wild-card team
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (7-10)

The Bengals have never been AFC North champs for three straight seasons. Last year was just their 12th divisional title and just the second time they repeated as divisional champs. Joe Burrow is pretty good! This year would have been a cakewalk, too, barring something strange, if Baltimore hadn’t gotten its act together and inked Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal. Jackson’s presence definitely makes this divisional race much more interesting. I’ve still got the Bengals squeaking it out, although in very narrow fashion with the Ravens projecting as the top wild-card team in the AFC. I love Todd Monken’s addition as offensive coordinator plus the weapons Baltimore grabbed for Lamar this offseason. The Steelers were definitely close to being a wild-card team in my model; Matt Canada is very meh but I like what they’ve done to the roster. The Browns went 3-3 last year with Deshaun Watson back, beating the Texans, Ravens sans Lamar and Washington. Maybe settle down on this coronation, Cleveland.

AFC South

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6) — Division winner
2. Houston Texans (7-10)
3. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
4. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

The AFC South once again represents what will likely be the worst of the conferences in terms of total performance by a division, but this is a potentially enthralling division for the long haul with three top-five picks in Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson plus a projected top-five pick (by some) in Will Levis lined up to run these offenses for the next little bit. I thought I’d be down on Jacksonville a little bit relative to the rest of the “market,” but once you run through the schedule it’s hard to really hate on the Jags. Stroud or Richardson could definitely surprise and I never rule out Mike Vrabel/Ryan Tannehill/Derrick Henry making chicken salad from less appetizing ingredients. But right now the Jaguars look like the cream of the crop in this division, particularly if Lawrence makes a leap in his second season with Doug Pederson. 

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) — Division winner
2. Denver Broncos (9-8)* — Wild-card team
3. Los Angeles Chargers (8-9)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)

People questioned the Chiefs last year, and it worked out poorly for those JABRONIS. The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and even though they dealt with some attrition, they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, which puts them in the pole position to dominate this division yet again. Anything under -200 should be considered a good bet with how the Chiefs operate. The Broncos and Chargers are a little scary — as long as Denver’s flying under the radar going into the season I’ll be higher on them. Sean Payton is a massive, massive upgrade over Nathaniel Hackett. It really can’t be overstated enough. Someone got mad at me for putting the Raiders in fourth place here … they’ve finished second three times since 2003 and haven’t won the division since 2002, so maybe settle down on demanding I think the Raiders will be great this season. 

AFC wild cards

• Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
• New York Jets (10-7)
• Denver Broncos (9-8)