2025 NFL mock draft: Focusing on betting market prop projections with six trades, including one in the top 10

Every 2025 NFL mock draft will likely fall into two categories: what the writer thinks will happen, or what the writer thinks should happen. But in this mock draft, both take a backseat to another category where it pays to be right: what the betting market projects will happen based on NFL draft prop odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

What does that mean exactly? This mock dials in on the odds in various types of draft props available at two major sportsbooks to build a picture of what would need to happen to satisfy the most likely scenario when each team is on the clock, within reason. In some cases, that means assigning the player that is favored to go, for example, No. 4 overall (Will Campbell) into the No. 4 slot. We have odds for which player will be taken with each of the first five draft picks, so this mock draft starts with the favorites in those five props.

In other cases, we’re focusing on the draft position over/under for a player to determine where he will go, and if that isn’t available, we’re looking at the odds to be a top-10 pick or a first-round pick to build our big board of player rankings. That determines situations where we’ll need to make sure Shedeur Sanders does not go before No. 8, as his position prop is heavily juiced to him going Over 8.5 at -300, but likely does go in the top 10, which is -220 to happen. (Spoiler alert: Congratulations to the Saints on your new quarterback).

In some instances, it means pairing a player like Tyler Warren with the team that’s favored to take him when we have those markets available, but Warren’s case in particular is unique in that he’s also -155 to go in the top 10. This presents a chance for us to work out a trade using my draft pick value chart (based upon trades that have happened in drafts over the last decade) to connect Warren with the right team (Indianapolis) in the right range (top 10).

One other primary factor in where we assign players is the position each is favored to take first, a market that is available for each team outside the top five picks. In only a handful of cases will the favorite be minus odds, which is correlated with a better than 50% chance to happen, so most of the time these are more of a loose guide than props like draft position over/unders or odds to be a first-round pick.

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis on “With the First Pick” — our NFL Draft podcast with analyst Ryan Wilson and former Titans general manager Ran Carthon. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen to the latest episode below!

The 2025 NFL Draft is to take place from April 24-26 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.