NFL Draft 2025: Comparing consensus top prospects in this year’s class to former infamous busts

I love NFL pro comparisons for NFL Draft prospects. Adore them, really. Spend way too much time formulating them every draft season.

Of course, comparisons are always “stylistic” and not solely based on things like height, weight or college program. And because I take them seriously and do so many, plenty of comparisons for prospects aren’t exactly superstars at the NFL level. They can’t be, right?

I will say, in most cases, every year the top prospects in every class are universally compared to established stars. But even if you follow the draft on a casual level, you know many first-round picks never reach superstar status, and in fact, “bust.” They’re on a different team in two years or out of the league completely before the end of their rookie deals. 

With that thought in mind, let’s compare the consensus top prospects in the 2025 class to former infamous draft busts. Hat tip to Purple Insider’s Matthew Coller for this idea. 

(VITAL DISCLAIMER: These are not my legitimate comparisons for these prospects. It’s just for fun.)

QB Cam Ward (Miami)

Bust comparison: Akili Smith

• Pick and year: No. 3 overall, 1999 draft (Bengals)
• College: Oregon

Smith was a transfer into Oregon after two years at junior college, and after modest statistics in his first season as the Ducks’ starter in 1997, Smith burst onto the college football scene — and appeared on the NFL Draft radar — with 30 touchdowns to seven interceptions in 1998. At 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds at the 1999 combine, Smith was slightly bigger than Ward, but like the Miami prospect, he mostly won from inside the pocket and had a flair for the dramatic play off-structure, but only as a last resort.  

In the NFL, Smith’s average arm talent, lack of downfield accuracy, problems reading NFL coverages, and a sudden inability to run away from everyone like he did in the Pac-10, led to a short professional career. He was out of the league after the 2002 season. If Ward flops in the NFL, it’ll be in similar fashion to Smith. 

EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State)

Bust comparison: Aaron Maybin

• Pick and year: No. 11 overall, 2009 draft (Bills)
• College: Penn State

Maybin was a dynamic outside pass rusher at Penn State in a sleek frame. He had a 38-inch vertical at the 2009 combine after a masterful 12-sack, 20 tackle-for-loss final season with the Nittany Lions. Many of his marquee plays came in enormous moments, just like Carter’s splash plays around the corner in college. 

Ultimately, Maybin wasn’t quite bendy nor powerful enough around the corner to threaten offensive tackles beyond an outside speed rush. Carter demonstrated better bend and speed-to-power conversion than Maybin in college, yet his patented method to beat blockers is with speed around the corner. He leans on that rush the most. 

Maybin never recorded a sack in two seasons in Buffalo and finished with six in his four-year NFL career. A development of counter moves will be vital for Carter, regardless of how naturally talented he is. They never materialized with Maybin. 

QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Bust comparison: Kenny Pickett

• Pick and year: No. 22 overall, 2022 draft (Steelers)

• College: Pittsburgh

Older, experienced, mostly accurate, predominantly pocket passer with glimmers of athleticism and just as many retreats in the pocket. That’s the one-sentence scouting report on Pickett, and it’s not crazy to fit Sanders into those descriptors either. 

Pickett “saw ghosts” often at Pittsburgh, and that cardinal sin of quarterbacking followed him to the NFL, when he’d retreat backward and out of the pocket after two seconds, regardless of the pressure he was or wasn’t facing. Sanders has a similar tendency. When in rhythm, both Pickett and Sanders can look like first-round-caliber passers and raises their respective floors. But they aren’t athletic enough on the field to improvise when things break down on a regular basis. 

If Sanders disappoints in the NFL, it’ll be comparable to Pickett in Pittsburgh. 

CB/WR Travis Hunter (Colorado)

Bust comparison: Morris Claiborne/Jalen Reagor

• Pick and year: No. 6 overall, 2012 draft (Cowboys) and No. 21 overall, 2020 draft (Eagles)
• College: LSU and TCU

Two positions for Hunter means two separate players. First, Claiborne. He was the most sought after cornerback out of LSU, in a cornerback draft class with Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick, Janoris Jenkins and Casey Hayward, which led to the No. 6 overall selection by the Cowboys. 

Claiborne was a fluid playmaker at LSU and the ballhawking skills he showcased in the SEC, never translated to the NFL. It’s that simple. At 5-foot-11 and 188 pounds, he couldn’t stay healthy either. While a lack of size doesn’t guarantee injuries of course, it does hint at an increased possibility, and Hunter was 6-foot and 188 at the combine. 

At receiver, Reagor was so dynamic of a mover at TCU he was picked ahead of Justin Jefferson in the receiver-loaded 2020 class. At 5-11 and 206, he had more thickness to his frame than Hunter, yet won with a similar combination of burst and speed on the outside as a receiver. 

In the NFL, his minimal YAC capabilities and rawish route running have led to Reagor playing on four teams in five years. 

RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Bust comparison: Trent Richardson

• Pick and year: No. 3 overall, 2012 draft (Browns)
• College: Alabama

Richardson was the can’t-miss running back prospect of can’t-miss running back prospects. At the top of the incredibly hyped 2012 draft that featured Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III with the first two picks, no one scoffed at the idea of the Browns calling in the Richardson pick immediately following the selection of those two quarterbacks. 

He was a short boulder of a back, with deceptive speed, and incredible contact balance at Alabama. After highly productive freshman and sophomore seasons for the Crimson Tide, Richardson stepped into the feature back role and accumulated nearly 1,700 yards on the ground at 5.9 yards per tote with 21 touchdowns — not Jeanty-level stats, yet darn impressive in the SEC at the time. 

In the NFL, injuries, a lack of vision and lesser speed than we all expected were driving forces in Richardson ultimately becoming one of the more clear early first-round draft busts of the past 25 years. 

DL Mason Graham (Michigan)

Bust comparison: Sedrick Ellis 

• Pick and year: No. 7 overall, 2008 draft (Saints)
• College: USC

Ellis was a key cog on super-successful Pete Carroll-coached Trojan teams. At 6-1 and 309 pounds, he had 17.5 sacks and 29 tackles for loss across three seasons in Los Angeles alongside the likes of Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, and Everson Griffen. 

His well-rounded skills and three seasons of consistency led to him being a top 10 pick in 2008.

In the NFL, Ellis’ complete game was adequate, yet his lack of a true specialty ultimately doomed his chances of emerging as a long-term star with the Saints. He played his entire rookie deal — five seasons — in New Orleans, registering a grand total of 12.5 sacks then didn’t play professionally again. 

Graham is as complete as they come at defensive tackle in this class oozing with talent. It is challenging at times to pinpoint his genuine speciality.