While the Chiefs and Eagles square off in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday, there are still 30 other NFL fan bases wishing their team will advance to the Super Bowl next year.
Therefore, I’ve created a ranking of the teams most likely to advance to Super Bowl LX.
Yes, most of the teams listed below were playoff teams in 2024. You could be asking yourself — wait, doesn’t each season breed new playoff teams? Absolutely. Over the past decade, there’ve been roughly six teams (!) in the postseason that did not advance there the year before.
As usual, I’d like to deploy math to properly frame this article. Historical math, let’s call it.
In the last 10 years, five of the 20 participating Super Bowl teams did not make the playoffs in the previous season. That’s 25%, a rather sizable number. Because of that figure, I will split this top-10 ranking into two parts — eight teams who would be returning playoff clubs and two that I believe have the best opportunity to go from out of the playoffs to the Super Bowl in February 2026.
The number next to the team is where I’d rank them in the top 10 altogether. Make sense? Hopefully. As stated in the headline, I’ve gone with teams other than the Chiefs and Eagles, who are obvious Super Bowl LX contenders.
Returning playoff teams
10. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are hard to peg — they feel on the verge of a deep playoff run (again) yet are simultaneously at a crossroads with the roster, especially on defense.
There are more holes on that side of the ball than at any other stage in the super-successful Matt LaFleur era. What does the future hold for Jaire Alexander? How about Quay Walker? Who else can generate consistent pressure on the quarterback other than Rashan Gary? The safety spot needs work too, beyond All-Pro Xavier McKinney of course.
The offense, when fully healthy, is overflowing with skill-position talent, yet not one receiver in particular stepped into a prominent role in 2024, and Green Bay laid an egg in the wild-card round loss to the Eagles, with a mere 10 points, its lowest total of the season at the worst time. Christian Watson’s injury history is now very much a thing.
Now, this is not to say the Packers must rebuild. It’s just that they felt much more positioned to erupt after their narrow defeat in the divisional round a year ago than they are now. If health is more on their side in 2025, Jordan Love takes another step, and GM Brian Gutekunst adds quality contributors in free agency and the draft — like his track record suggests he can — the Packers can once again be a dangerous club in the NFC.
9. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have won many close games in the Kevin O’Connell era — he’s 26-9 in one-score games to be exact — and it’s amounted to a pair of wild-card losses, nothing more.
Another fact — the Vikings have built quite the sterling roster, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Christian Darrisaw, and a litany of pass rushers on defense who have created quite the cozy atmosphere for any quarterback. Whether the Vikings run it back with Sam Darnold, who played like a top-seven quarterback during the regular season, or turn to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings are bound to be serious contenders in the NFC.
The reason they’re lower in these rankings than you may have expected, is those exact quarterbacks. While I have 10x more faith in Darnold playing in Minnesota than if he signs a lucrative deal elsewhere in free agency, I don’t know if I’m confident in him completing 66% of his passes for 4,300-plus yards with 35 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions next season.
I do think McCarthy has a bright future with the Vikings, and not strictly due to his environment. He has a strong arm, can dazzle as an improviser when needed, and has plus accuracy. I can’t, however, envision him leading the Vikings through a treacherous postseason in the NFC all the way to the Super Bowl. Jayden Daniels got close as a rookie, yet he had much more collegiate experience than McCarthy.
8. Houston Texans
The Texans are kind of like the AFC version of the Packers. Young, clearly talented quarterback. Back-to-back playoff appearances. But they’ve lost some of their juice, haven’t they?
What the Packers lack on defense, Houston lacks in its receiver room, with Stefon Diggs a free agent coming off a torn ACL, and the very much uncertain future of budding star Tank Dell. It’s Nico Collins and what else? Plus, the offensive line needs major work.
Because of Stroud and Collins, along with a defense that finished third in EPA per play in non-garbage time during the regular season, this franchise is still in Super Bowl contender range. Are Laremy Tunsil and Danielle Hunter still going to be in their primes at 31 next season? Probably. Right?
7. Los Angeles Chargers
We saw Year 1 of the Jim Harbaugh effect with the Chargers. The same impact he had at the University of San Diego, Stanford, with the 49ers, and at Michigan.
The growth should continue in Los Angeles, and I still have a strong conviction about Justin Herbert. He’s right on the cusp of the elite tier among quarterbacks. Incredibly talented. And he’ll only be 27 next season. Now, I don’t love the history of Year 2 for quarterbacks in Greg Roman’s offense (see: Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson in their second full seasons with Roman calling the plays).
That’s the main, very nit-picky reason the Chargers are relatively low on this list. Ladd McConkey looks like a future superstar, their GM Joe Hortiz was a long-time executive in the Ravens super-shrewd organization and has the fifth-most cap space to work with this offseason.
I’m also reasonably concerned about the future of the edge rusher spot given the age and impending free agency of Khalil Mack along with the lengthy injury history of Joey Bosa. But this was a club that finished fifth in defensive EPA when excluding garbage time in 2024. Asante Samuel Jr. will return from injury. Derwin James is in his prime. Linebacker Daiyan Henley experienced a breakout Year 2. I love the idea of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt as the franchise offensive tackles.
The Chargers will be a force to be reckoned with in 2025.
6. Washington Commanders
The Commanders had a magical run to the NFC title game, with close victories over a rock-solid Buccaneers team in Tampa Bay and a dispatching of the Lions in front of a raucous crowd in Detroit.
Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Terry McLaurin made Second Team All-Pro.
Other than that, the Commanders surged down the stretch on the shoulders of overachievers like Frankie Luvu, Dorance Armstrong, Jamison Crowder and Zach Ertz.
This franchise’s arrow is pointing upward. That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy for them to go a step further in 2025 than they did this past season. Bobby Wagner turns 35 in June. Ertz turns 35 in November. Jonathan Allen is 30.
Plus, the Commanders went 9-3 in one-score games — counting the playoffs — with the 16th ranked defense in EPA per play excluding garbage time during the regular season. Washington does have the third-most cap space in football. The front office can spend lavishly in free agency. If the Commanders hit on some of those acquisitions, Washington will be aligned to once again battle with the Eagles for the NFC East title and one of the top seeds in the conference next year with a dynamic quarterback on a rookie deal.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens had six All-Pros in 2024 — on the first or second team — headlined by a career year for Lamar Jackson. With Zay Flowers healthy, this became an offensive machine, with incredible efficiency on the ground and in the air.
Baltimore finished first in EPA per play in non-garbage time scenarios on offense, and they only major offensive free agent is left tackle Ronnie Stanley. That decision looms reasonably large, no doubt. Baltimore, surprisingly, doesn’t have a cheap but talented homegrown talent at left tackle waiting in the wings to replace him. Another reason the Ravens aren’t higher on this list — and, yes, to some No. 4 isn’t high enough — Derrick Henry just turned 31 years old, and while he’s shown zero signs of slowing down, he did carry the football 367 times, counting the playoffs, in the 2024 season.
Jackson is undeniably in his prime. And his connection with Flowers will catalyze plenty of big plays in the coming years. The defense has dudes in Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey. The pass rush needs to be replenished, as Kyle Van Noy will be 35 this offseason. Baltimore will have long stretches of stellar play in 2025, but there’s work to be done to get to the Super Bowl in a loaded AFC.
2. Detroit Lions
I’m snatching the low-hanging fruit here. The Lions aren’t going to be as injured in 2025 as they were in 2024. The injury big infested this roster without mercy, starting with Aidan Hutchinson’s broken leg early in the season.
Losing both coordinators is an enormous bummer. Ben Johnson has proven himself to be one of the brightest, most innovative play-callers in football, and Aaron Glenn held the patchwork defense together.
The offensive line is still probably the best in football. Jared Goff comes with mobility flaws, but keenly understands where to go with the football, the running back tandem is the finest in the league. And the skill-position group out wide is sneaky good with All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams, the latter of whom settled into a splash-play role in 2024.
The Lions will be back in 2025.
1. Buffalo Bills
The four losses to Kansas City in the playoffs haunt Buffalo, no question. But all things — and games — considered, no team has played the Chiefs as well as the Bills. In the past five years, the Bills have a pair of wins by more than one score over the Chiefs. Josh Allen’s squadron has beaten Mahomes in four straight regular seasons, including three-consecutive victories in Arrowhead Stadium.
They’ve only come excruciatingly close in each of the last three playoff losses to Mahomes and Andy Reid.
And the Bills are returning the entire offensive line. James Cook. And both coordinators.
Sean McDermott and his staff still have to be more shrewd in those colossal showdowns with the Chiefs, but he’s become one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL, and Allen just enjoyed a tremendous season that featured the same otherworldly plays with his arm and legs without many mistakes at all.
Sure, there’ll be some regression in the turnover department, no doubt. But the Bills are unlikely to be as leaky on defense in 2025. Beyond the Chiefs, Buffalo is the most likely club to get to next year’s Super Bowl in Levi Stadium.
New playoff teams
5. San Francisco 49ers
I realize the streak has to stop at some point, but since 2011, the 49ers have either missed the playoffs completely or at least gotten to the NFC title game. Incredible. That doesn’t mean it’s alternated — from 2014 to 2018 they did not qualify for the postseason — just that it’s either been watching the NFC playoffs from their luxurious homes in the Bay Area or strapping it up for the NFC championship game for the past 15 years. No in between. Of course that time frame includes an excruciating three Super Bowl losses.
Brock Purdy is still unfathomably cheap — his last year with such financial standing — and I’m banking on the 49ers roster not getting as ravaged by injury as it was in 2024. Heck, that seems to be the only phenomenon that can stop a Kyle Shanahan-led team from advancing to or ever-so-close to the Super Bowl. With Brandon Aiyuk back from injury, and without a summer-long holdout, what I assume will be new pieces on the interior off the defensive line, Nick Bosa in his prime and more Deebo Samuel, Fred Warner and George Kittle and yeah it’s not a challenge to envision this team as the NFC representative in Super Bowl 60.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow had his most effective season in the NFL, and the Bengals didn’t even get to the playoffs. It’s remarkable thinking about that. And, heck, Lou Anarumo went from having the reputation of an elite-level defensive coordinator who could limit Patrick Mahomes to fired in three years.
Even if the defense only marginally improves — and it essentially has to from its standing at No. 25 in EPA per play allowed beyond garbage time — the Bengals will again emerge as a dangerous playoff team. Remember how close they were to beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead Week 2? And the Ravens at home in Week 5? How about the one-point loss in Baltimore a few weeks later?
Burrow and Co. have shown they can elevate their level of play to astronomical levels if the defense is shoddy. And there’s enormous room for improvement on that side of the ball, don’t get me wrong.
This No. 3 spot for the Bengals is mostly contingent upon how owner Mike Brown handles the Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase scenarios. One day on Twitter, you’ll think Higgins is a goner. The next, the vibe suggests he’ll be back in Cincinnati. The Bengals need to keep the band together offensively to have a real shot at making another Super Bowl.
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Author: Chris Trapasso
February 6, 2025 | 11:00 am
