The 2023 NFL Draft is fast approaching, and that means many, if not all, of the league’s remaining quarterback vacancies will soon be filled. Some clubs are in dire need of a new signal-caller. Others have veterans in place but could be eyeing future replacements. No matter what, four — maybe even five — QBs are expected to come off the board on Day 1, with the potential to start in 2023.
So which of the QB-needy teams should actually prioritize the position early on? We’ve pooled together 12 of the most logical candidates to spend a first-round pick at the position, then suggested whether they should take or wait on a QB:
Pick: No. 1
There isn’t a more obvious decision on the list. After moving up from No. 9 to No. 1, Carolina is primed to secure one of the consensus top two QBs of the class in Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. The thinking here is that it’ll be Young, with new coach Frank Reich valuing Young’s veteran-level poise over Stroud’s prototypical build. But either choice is a winner for a franchise that’s been searching for stable QB play since Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP season.
Picks: Nos. 2, 12
Word on the street is the Texans might pass on QB, their most glaring need, at No. 2 in the name of adding a premium defensive prospect. But we’re not buying it — or at least we hope Houston isn’t. Unless the Texans can guarantee they’ll get the raw but superhuman traits of, say, Florida’s Anthony Richardson with their second Day 1 pick, there’s no reason they should pass on whichever of Stroud or Young is still available at No. 2. Both project as immediate difference-makers, and it’s not like new coach DeMeco Ryans couldn’t get a starting-caliber defender and/or wide receiver with one of the team’s other top 35 picks.
Pick: No. 4
Years ago, amid his short-term gambles at QB, general manager Chris Ballard insisted he wouldn’t draft a QB early just for the sake of it. It’s about getting the right guy, he argued. Well now that approach — wise as it may be — will really be put to the test, with both Young and Stroud likely to be off the board, barring a trade up. If Young goes No. 1 but the rival Texans pass on Stroud, then this is a no-brainer; the latter would give new coach Shane Steichen a polished pocket passer to build around. Assuming both are gone, however, the Colts still can’t really leave Day 1 without a consolation prize, be it Richardson (who could sit and develop behind Gardner Minshew), the strong-armed but erratic Will Levis or Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker after a move down.
Picks: Nos. 5, 20
With Geno Smith trending upward and secured for reasonable money through 2023, they don’t necessarily need to rush adding his successor. But it’s not often you own two picks in the top 20, and it’s possible, if not probable, that both Richardson and Levis — dynamic talents who could stand to learn behind a veteran — will be there for the taking with their first selection. An alternative is aiming for Hooker, who could also sit while recovering from a college ACL tear, with their second pick. Either way, pairing Smith, 32, with better short- and long-term insurance would be wise, and wouldn’t prohibit the club from also addressing defense on Day 1.
Picks: Nos. 6, 18
This is where we must say that every “wait” is predicated on the top three/four consensus prospects — Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis — being unavailable. If, for example, Stroud somehow slides outside of the top three or four, Detroit has every reason to consider a move up. Jared Goff is serviceable and well-liked, but you simply don’t pass up on prime opportunities to upgrade this position for the long term. Otherwise, the Lions already boast a playoff-caliber roster and would do well to use their two Day 1 picks to further bolster the front and back ends of their growing defense, including at cornerback and along the D-line.
Pick: No. 7
It’d be nice to know what the Raiders are actually building toward. Swapping out Derek Carr and Darren Waller for Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers, for example, is a fine, if lateral, adjustment. But it leaves them in kind of a no man’s land, in between a rebuild and reload, where big investments in the trenches probably make more sense than swinging for a QB at this time. That’s not to say an Anthony Richardson or Will Levis wouldn’t juice up their offense, especially with Garoppolo a proven injury risk, but they almost need to build their foundation before asking a rookie QB to thrive within it.
Pick: No. 8
Are we advocating for the Falcons to leave Desmond Ridder unchallenged for the QB1 job? Absolutely not. But again, unless Richardson or Levis falls into their lap, they’re simply better positioned to address longstanding needs on defense, such as corner and edge rusher. Imagine if they’d just taken Georgia native Justin Fields when they had the chance, early in the 2021 draft.
Pick: No. 11
Securing “their guy” won’t be easy, picking outside the top 10, but it’s very much time to challenge/replace Ryan Tannehill. The veteran was a good story for Tennessee, but it’s time. He’s aging, expensive and maxed out as the placeholder for a run-first offense. Sure, maybe they should just give 2022 third-rounder Malik Willis more opportunity as a potential successor, but guys like Richardson and Levis are more physically gifted and offer relatively high floors, thanks to their own athleticism. Hendon Hooker also makes plenty of sense, more so in a slight trade down, even if Tannehill sticks.
Pick: No. 16
Can Ron Rivera and Co. afford to postpone their next QB investment until 2024? Probably not. Do they have another choice? Probably not. It’s possible Levis could slip to them outside the top 15; ditto for Hooker. But they’ve backed themselves into a weird corner by committing verbally and/or financially to a pair of passable, if unspectacular, options in 2022 rookie Sam Howell and journeyman reserve Jacoby Brissett. A surprise blockbuster move up for someone like Richardson would be spicy, but would it be smart, considering their lingering issues up front, as well as uncertainty regarding the future of the staff and ownership?
Pick: No. 19
Do they need more help post-Tom Brady? One hundred percent. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask’s pending competition is reminiscent of the Mayfield-Sam Darnold battle in Carolina: No matter who wins, the team likely loses. And yet they can’t afford to be selling multiple premium picks to secure one of this year’s top prospects, with other needs on both sides of the ball. If Hendon Hooker is available to them at No. 19, taking a flyer wouldn’t be unreasonable. But they’re better suited to reassess in 2024.
Pick: No. 23
Few teams are in a more unusual spot than the Vikings, who went 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s debut but have spent most of this offseason purging notable names and pondering the future. There are any number of receivers, corners or pass rushers who could make sense at No. 23, but with Kirk Cousins entering a contract year and clearly entrenched in the tier below the rare but elite QBs, forward-thinking GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has plenty of reason — and a potentially clean shot — to pursue someone like Hooker, an ideal candidate to sit for a year before potentially taking over in 2024.
Pick: No. 29
If Hooker is still available, then sure, why not? But the Saints buttered their bread when they paid big bucks for Derek Carr this offseason, effectively buying another two or three years of wild card contention — and, in the process, postponing a fuller rebuild. Taking a flyer on another QB later in the draft, perhaps at No. 40 (second round), No. 71 (third) or No. 115 (fourth), shouldn’t be ruled out if they truly believe in the traits of guys like Jake Haener (Fresno State), Jaren Hall (BYU) or Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA).
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Author: Cody Benjamin
April 20, 2023 | 9:19 am
