There is no better time for betting on sports than the Super Bowl, and Super Bowl LIX — taking place this Sunday between the Eagles and Chiefs — may be the ultimate spot for it, given the advent of legalized sports gambling and all the different props that we now have access to as a result.
Included in this are some fun, longer-shot bets, which I’m going to focus on below. I’ve come up with 10 of them, but I also want them to be somewhat realistic, so I set the bar at 5-1 or longer although I’m only including a pair of bets that are under 10-1. Most of these are going to be threading a needle through a relatively tight window, but I don’t think that prohibits us from finding one or two of them to get home.
And you don’t need to hit all of these to profit. Sprinkle a full unit across the board and if one of the longer ones gets home, we’re going to make money across the board. If a couple of these get there … watch out.
Got a better one I missed? Send me your favorite long shots @WillBrinson on Twitter/X.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jalen Hurts 300+ passing yards (+710)
In a perfect world for the Eagles, this doesn’t happen. If Jalen Hurts’ passing totals remain suppressed, it likely means the Eagles have run the ball effectively, Saquon Barkley is gashing the Chiefs on the ground and Hurts isn’t being asked to chuck the ball around a ton. But there’s a more than reasonable chance of two things happening here. One, the Eagles decide to zag and come out throwing the football a bunch to throw the Chiefs defense off, which would lead to more passing yards for Hurts as well as potentially elevate the pace of this game significantly and lead to more passing attempts. Or two, the Chiefs jump out to a lead and the Eagles are forced to throw a lot against the K.C. defense. Remember, Hurts topped 300 yards against Kansas City in this very spot two years ago. Getting more than 7-1 odds on it happening is a nice look and you can sprinkle on smaller bands (300-325 and 326-350) at some massive numbers as well if you think this is a possibility.
Xavier Worthy 50+ first-quarter receiving yards (+950)
The speedy rookie has taken on the role of WR1 for the Chiefs over the back half of the season, thanks to his development, Rashee Rice’s injury and Hollywood Brown slowly working his way back from injury. In the Chiefs last five games where they played starters (Week 18 excluded), Xavier Worthy has 32 catches on 44 targets. He’s a more complete receiver than some thought coming into the draft, but he also possesses some of the most blazing speed in the league right now, a combo that makes him ripe for a big blowup early in this game. I’d be pretty surprised if Andy Reid didn’t have some kind of trick or shot play designed for Worthy early, and while 50 receiving yards is a LOT to ask for in the first quarter, we’re probably banking on him getting there via a single play down the field or a quick-hitting, screen-style play that he takes for a massive gain.
Either team to kick walk-off field goal (+1200)
If we’re assuming a really close game, I think this is pretty decent value! Both teams have good kickers, we obviously have an indoor environment ripe for longer kicks and if the game is tight at the end (inside a three-point margin), I think we’ll see both K.C. and Philly set up a kick to win if they have the opportunity. No pressure! Jake Elliott and Harrison Butker are both fairly trustworthy, even if Elliott has missed a few shorties recently. And I also think we could see either team with a small lead press the gas and try to get a first down, possibly setting up good field position for their opponent if they aren’t successful, which brings the field goal into play more. Two years ago we got Butker making a field goal to win by three points with eight seconds remaining — we need double zeroes on the clock for this prop to cash but it’s not unrealistic at all.
Hurts converts first first down of the game (+1400)
This is a crazy number for Hurts?! The Eagles are — likely — going to come out and try to run the ball. But those runs might be read options! It’s not outrageous at all to suggest Philly decides to mix things up and fake a run to Saquon Barkley, only to have Hurts keep the ball, find a seam in the Chiefs defense and rumble for a first down on the Eagles first possession of the game. Additionally, we can get this if Hurts drops backs to pass early and is pressured, decides to take off running and picks up a first down. Oh yeah and there’s the extremely realistic scenario of a third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 early after a decent kickoff return followed by a “Tush Push” for a first down. I really like this look.
First to 20 rushing yards: Worthy (+3000)
In that same vein, Worthy’s trick play could easily be a jet sweep that counts as a rush. So if you’re buying into the first-quarter receiving yards long-shot bet, I would probably sprinkle on Worthy rushing yards in some capacity. I discussed this one with the BetSweats guys (Joe O and Sammy P) on Monday: it makes all the sense in the world for Worthy to be the first player to hit 20 yards if the Chiefs get the ball first and feed Worthy in the trick capacity, or IF — and this is a big if — the Eagles get the ball first and K.C. completely bottles up Saquon Barkley, forcing the Eagles to punt. I don’t hate Hurts first to 20 rush yards, either (shop around, the numbers fluctuate wildly) or even Mahomes first to 20 rush yards (his longest rush attempt over/under is 13.5)
Noah Gray first touchdown scorer (+3000)
The anytime touchdown scorer market for the Super Bowl is, unsurprisingly, pretty meh. Gray is just 5-1 in that market, and while I think dabbling in that is interesting, we’re looking for longer shots here. Plus, I don’t think Gray is going to be heavily involved in this matchup, per se, as the Chiefs have really faded him out a bit in the playoffs and leaned on Travis Kelce. But if K.C. marches down to the red zone on its first drive, I don’t think it’s crazy at all to see some kind of trick play — that could even involve Kelce at quarterback — with Gray being targeted as a player who won’t be the focal point of the defense. Reid loves to dial up some crazy stuff in the red zone and Gray has been a very reliable target down there for the Chiefs this season. This is a pretty strong price for someone who should be on the field and a tertiary option for Mahomes near the goal line.
Chiefs ML + Sam Burns WMPO win w/o Scottie Scheffler (+3680)
You wanna get nuts? Let’s get NUTS. The beauty of legalized gambling is you can parlay all kinds of stuff these days. And with one of CBS Sports signature events — the Waste Management Phoenix Open — taking place in Arizona this week and ending on Sunday, you can set yourself up for a big old combo on Sunday if you play your cards right. Specifically, let’s take the Chiefs on the moneyline (I believe they’ll win, if you like Philly to win, you can crank up the value, so by all means, fire away) and parlay them with Sam Burns to win the Waste … without Scottie Scheffler. In other words, Scottie can win the tournament by 10 strokes, but Burns would still “win” here as long as he finishes second. Burns is one of the top-five favorites in the outright market (25-1) but we’re getting enough value even with removing Scottie from the equation that I’m comfortable firing on this versus him actually outright with the Chiefs (+4500), just in case Scheffler decides to go nuclear. Burns checks the boxes with course history, recent form (would like his approach play to be better but he can get by in Phoenix with great off-the-tee play) and pedigree.
He played just two offensive snaps in the AFC Championship game, but Perine was the go-to guy for Andy Reid on a third-down play to ice the game and put the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. I think there’s gonna be some stuff here for Perine, because Reid’s had two weeks to cook up a game plan. And there’s a few paths here to get the last touchdown bet. Maybe Perine is in there because the Chiefs are trailing and they want a true pass-catching back. Or maybe Perine is in there with a short lead and the Eagles holding timeouts, catches a pass from Mahomes and houses the ball to give K.C. a two-score lead and Philly doesn’t counter. Given his late-game usage against Buffalo, I think this is a pretty good long-shot sprinkle.
Hurts/Goedert/Hunt stat leaders (+6000)
This is the definition of threading the needle, but I like the idea of landing on the trifecta for most passing yards, most receiving yards and most rushing yards by going with an unexpected game script and fading the narrative of Saquon Barkley running the ball effectively and the Chiefs getting a lead early on with passing and defense. That could make the Eagles one dimensional and Dallas Goedert has been fantastic down the stretch this season and in the playoffs. He’s very capable of picking up big yardage after the catch and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Kareem Hurts had more rushing yards than Mahomes. If the Chiefs have a bigger lead early, Hunt should pile up rushing attempts and we just need him to break one and the Eagles stay out of run-first mode to get here on a huge number.
Chris Jones Super Bowl MVP (+6500)
The Super Bowl MVP is likely coming down to three people: Mahomes, Hurts and Barkley, depending on who wins and how they get there. The nature of the award is such that a bunch of people are voting on who should win and doing it in quick fashion at the end of the game in order to get back to their jobs in the press box. So it takes a couple things happening for a defensive player to win: One, you need a lower-scoring game. Two, you need a dominating performance from a defense. Three, you need a special day for a single defensive player. And four, you need some voter fatigue. Mahomes already has three Super Bowl MVP awards. If Jones and the Chiefs defensive line manage to stonewall Barkley, generate pressure on Hurts and we get a Jones strip-sack/fumble or some kind of explosive play, it’s very possible he gets the love at the end of the game. He’s the rare defensive player who will generate enough attention to steal the award and he’s an absolute gamer in the postseason.
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Author: Will Brinson
February 5, 2025 | 3:15 am
