2025 NFL Draft: Making the case for Alabama’s Jalen Milroe as a first-round pick in this QB class

Alabama’s Jalen Milroe is far from a perfect quarterback prospect, but isn’t that true for most of them?

Actually, I think we’ve been spoiled of late at the top of recent drafts with transcendent type quarterback prospects with elite-level traits and outstanding collegiate production across multiple seasons that led to those passers being selected very early. 

At the start of the 2025 pre-draft process, I believe Milroe is uniquely positioned to be a first-round pick in April. Allow me to outline the multi-layered case for the Alabama quarterback to, despite his shortcomings, still be a first-round selection of the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Lacking strength in this QB class

There are no “generational” quarterback prospects in this class. And when I write “generational,” I mean “football generation,” as in 7-10 years, which would constitute a respectably long professional career. 

There probably isn’t one close to that characterization either. And so much of that lofty label or anything remotely close to it is always directly tied to traits. And neither Shedeur Sanders nor Cam Ward have impeccable traits. Can Sanders get into a fantastic rhythm inside the pocket, distributing the football to an array of targets? Yep. Has Ward improved as a passer and developed a strong improvisational element to his game? Absolutely. 

Neither are premier “talents” when compared to the likes of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, or even Jalen Hurts. 

All this is to suggest the door is open for a quarterback like Milroe — who clearly has the most tantalizing natural gifts pertaining to arm talent and pure athleticism — to ascend the board simply because of his physical difference to that of those bound to be selected within the Top 5 or 10 picks. 

At quarterback, much of succeeding at the position (or not) depends on mental processing and decision-making that comes from it. However, it’s far from the only component that matters at the position. Having a huge arm and receiver speed are major luxuries and can be vital crutches for a quarterback early in his professional career as he gets acclimated to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses. 

Avoiding recency bias 

The trend of drafting a reasonably raw but uber-talented quarterback has seemingly come to a screeching halt, mostly because of what we witnessed from Anthony Richardson in Year 2 with the Colts. 

Before Richardson was picked by Indianapolis early in the 2023 draft, essentially every quarterback-needy team was attempting to discover that exact type of passer, mostly because of what we had witnessed from Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts, three unfinished products who’ve blossomed into highly successful quarterbacks. 

While it’d be foolish to completely ignore Richardson’s disappointing second season, it’d be equally as foolish to assume Milroe is destined for the same fate. They’re not the same person. They won’t be in the same environment in the NFL. 

To unpack that further, Richardson threw 393 passes at Florida in college then 84 as a rookie before his season ended due to a serious shoulder injury. Milroe made 663 attempts at Alabama and isn’t nearly as reliant on tackle-breaking power as a runner. 

You’ll hear a lot about the importance of “team situation” for every prospect in this draft, especially for quarterbacks. With that being true, Milroe’s upside suggests he could offer more value than the average quarterback prospect, provided he’s placed in an environment conducive to his growth.

Get him with the right coach(es) who will accentuate his strengths, behind a quality offensive line, with respectable skill position players, and he can thrive. 

Positional value and its tie to finances 

As a rookie, Jayden Daniels’ cap hit was $8.5 million as the No. 2 pick in the draft. Next year, it’ll be $10.2M. The entirety of his rookie deal features $9.4M average-per-year. 

Entering this offseason, there are nine quarterbacks with average-per-year figures of $50-plus million in their respective contracts. 

This means even a highly drafted quarterback like Daniels represents about 18% of the average cap hit of the highest-paid players at the position.

And good-to-great quarterbacks don’t reside in all rounds of the draft like other positions. Of those aforementioned nine quarterbacks making, on average, more than $50M per year, only two — Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts — weren’t first-round picks. Among the top 20 quarterbacks in passing yards during the 2024 season, just four — Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, Hurts, and Kirk Cousins — didn’t hear their names called during the first round of their respective drafts. 

Of course, picking a quarterback in the first round doesn’t magically morph him into a stellar passer. 

But the current evidence suggests if you’re looking for a franchise quarterback, he needs to be selected in the first round. There’ll be more organizational buy-in if that’s the case too, and that’s a low-key crucial element to a quarterback’s development in the NFL. 

Summary

Of course, it’s conceivable that Milroe is either a Day 2 pick and/or never amounts to much in the NFL. But if teams, with GMs and large scouting staffs — far more knowledgable about football than I am — are still getting quarterbacks wrong in the draft, we have to accept that drafting as a whole, and particularly that position, is inherently imperfect and shaped by countless uncontrolable factors. None of us can be completely “sure” about a prospect. Remember, Lamar Jackson was the 32nd pick of the 2018 draft. 

It’s why we should prioritize process over results.

And because of the lacking strength at the quarterback position in this draft, Milroe having superior traits to his contemporaries, the enormous financial advantage a club can obtain if it hits on a quarterback it drafted, and what should be a steadfast avoidance of recency bias, the Alabama quarterback should be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.