The NFL continues to provide exciting action every week, wondering which teams are actually going to compete in Super Bowl LXIX in New Orleans. The Buffalo Bills made their statement to represent the AFC in that Super Bowl by scoring 48 points on the Detroit Lions while the Philadelphia Eagles continued to roll by thrashing the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The MVP race is heating up too, as Josh Allen threw for 362 yards and ran for 68 yards with four total touchdowns and Lamar Jackson threw for 290 yards and five touchdowns. Saquon Barkley is also on pace for 2,000 rushing yards and the Eagles keep winning.
As the Sunday slate in Week 15 comes to a close, the overreaction pot is flowing with takes. Which of these overreactions are truly overreactions, compared to which are reality?
Lions will not get the No. 1 seed in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Sunday’s loss to the Bills was a blow to the Lions having significant leeway over the Eagles and Vikings for the No. 1 seed, but Detroit still controls its own destiny for the top seed in the conference. The Lions hold the conference-record tiebreaker over the Eagles, so Sunday’s loss didn’t affect that tie breaking scenario in the standings. Detroit also holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota by virtue of the Lions’ victory over the Vikings earlier this year (Minnesota didn’t play yet this week).
There isn’t reason to worry for the Lions losing the No. 1 seed yet, but the margin for error is gone. The Lions will have to win out to lock up the No. 1 seed with how the Eagles are playing (they have Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants remaining) and the Vikings aren’t slipping up either (have Bears, Seahawks, Packers, Lions left).
Based on their schedules, the Eagles are a bigger threat to the Lions for the No. 1 seed. Detroit has to lose a conference game and Philadelphia will have to win out, but that margin of error is gone after the loss to Buffalo today.
Josh Allen locked up his MVP award
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Allen has been making his case to earn his first MVP award after another outstanding performance in Sunday’s win over the Lions. has put up 340+ passing yards, 60+ rushing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns and 2+ rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games (the only other player to ever have a stat line like that for one game was Steve Young in 1991), showcasing how historic his run has been.
Allen also had his second straight season with 25+ passing touchdowns and 10+ rushing touchdowns while becoming the only player since the merger with 6+ passing touchdowns and 6+ rushing touchdowns in a three-game span (and this doesn’t include his receiving touchdown). He also has not been sacked, committed a fumble, and threw an interception during the stretch.
So why doesn’t Allen have the MVP award locked up after leading the Bills to 48 points off a Lions defense that was allowing 15.8 points per game over the past four weeks? Lamar Jackson has thrown 34 touchdown passes to three interceptions this season, combined with his 743 rushing yards and three scores. Saquon Barkley is still on pace for 2,000 rushing yards as well.
Allen is the front runner for MVP (and should get the award through 15 weeks), but he didn’t wrap it up yet. The Bills easy finish (Patriots, Jets, Patriots) significantly favors Allen down the stretch.
The AFC has their seven playoff teams
Overreaction or reality: Reality
For the AFC teams that had an outside chance at the playoffs, this week was not very kind to them. The Dolphins (6-8) fell to the Texans while the Colts (6-8) could have made the Broncos‘ pash to the playoffs more challenging. Instead, the Dolphins and Colts are two games behind the Chargers (8-6) for the final playoff spot.
The Broncos (9-5) essentially locked up their playoff berth with their win over the Colts while the Ravens (9-5) are also a win away from sealing a playoff berth. The Chargers play the Broncos in Week 16, but finish with the Patriots (3-11) and Raiders (2-11). The other wild card spot will go to Los Angeles.
The Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals (6-8) don’t have a shot at the playoffs with three weeks to play. The AFC has their seven playoff teams, as the battle for seeding matters more in the home stretch.
Packers proved they can beat good teams
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
A convincing victory over the Seahawks on the road is what the Packers needed after a tough loss to the Lions, but Green Bay still needs more convincing to be considered a Super Bowl contender. Jordan Love has proven he can win playoff games on the road and the Packers defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in four of the last five games.
Against teams with 10+ wins, the Packers are 0-4 this season (lost twice to Lions and once to Eagles and Vikings). Sunday’s win over the Seahawks was the Packers’ fourth against a team that is currently .500 or better, but the elite teams Green Bay hasn’t beaten yet.
This doesn’t mean Green Bay can’t win a championship, but there will be doubts until they beat one of those 10+ win teams. They’ll have a tune up against the Vikings in Week 17 and should get another shot at one of the elite teams in the conference if they take care of business in the wild card round of the playoffs.
The Eagles don’t have a passing problem
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Jalen Hurts only needed a game to put the doubts regarding the Eagles passing game to rest, as the Eagles quarterback threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday’s win over the Steelers. Hurts finished with a 125.7 passer rating and completed 78.1% of his passes.
Hurts targeted A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith a total of 23 times, as the duo combined for 19 catches for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Brown and Smith were the first Eagles duo to have 100+ receiving yards, a receiving touchdowns more than five catches in a game since Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson in 2009. Brown had his season high in catches and targets just one week after he said “passing” was what the offense needed to improve on.
The Eagles rushed for just 131 yards and Saquon Barkley only finished with 65 (and had 3.4 yards per carry). Philadelphia just proved what it already knew — that the Eagles can win in a multitude of ways.
There is no passing problem on the Eagles. Hurts is multi-dimensional, which is why he wins as frequently as he does (now 46-19 as a starting quarterback). He’s still a good quarterback throwing the football, proving that aspect of his game is good enough when the game plan calls for it.
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Author: Jeff Kerr
December 16, 2024 | 9:30 am
