I almost didn’t have time to write my picks this week and that’s because I was too busy writing a lengthy email to Roger Goodell.
I spent 1,700 words explaining why the NFL needs to do away with the Monday night doubleheader. For the fourth time this year, we’re getting a Monday doubleheader this week and for the fourth time this year, I will be complaining about it.
Based on an unscientific survey I took of three people at the grocery store over the weekend, no one likes the Monday doubleheader. The Twitter poll below would also suggest that no one likes the Monday doubleheader.
We can’t even get 66.7% of people to agree whether the earth is round and 66.7% of people want the Monday doubleheader abolished.
OK, I’m going to end this rant now because I need to get to the my Week 15 picks, but I just want everyone to know that I’m making my Monday doubleheader picks under protest.
You know what day of the week doesn’t have a doubleheader? Thursdays. That’s why I love Thursdays. With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s picks, starting with the Thursday night game.
NFL Week 15 picks
L.A. Rams (7-6) at San Francisco (6-7)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
This isn’t a playoff game, but it’s going to kind of feel like a playoff game and that’s because the loser here won’t have much hope of making the postseason, especially if that loser is the 49ers. One year after getting to the Super Bowl, the 49ers season is teetering on the edge of collapse. I was going to blame their struggles on injuries, but they’re about to face the one team in the NFL that has had almost as many injuries as them, so I think we’ll just call things even on the injury front and move on.
The one thing about the 49ers is that I’m still not sure how good they are. For the most part, I feel like I can tell if a team is any good after FOURTEEN WEEKS, but with the 49ers, I still have no idea and that’s mostly because they’ve struggled to beat good teams. The 49ers have played a total of nine games this year against teams that currently have a winning record and they’ve gone 2-7 in those games and that includes a loss to the Rams back in Week 3.
The 49ers are already down to their third-string running back in Isaac Guerendo, but he’s dealing with a foot injury, which means they might be down to their fourth-string running back (Patrick Taylor, Jr.) on Thursday night. If you’re down to your fourth-string guy at any position, I don’t like your chances of winning.
The Rams have been a streaky team this year, but if there’s one thing you can almost always count on, it’s Matthew Stafford getting hot in December. We should call him Stafford Claus, because he delivers as often as Santa in December. Since being traded to the Rams in 2021, Stafford has started 11 games in the month of December and he’s gone 10-1 in those games and the only loss came in OVERTIME on the road against the Ravens last season. In those 11 games, Stafford has averaged 272.9 yards while throwing 24 touchdown passes compared to just six interceptions.
I think my point here is that you should never pick against Matthew Stafford in the month of December, a painful lesson that I learned last week when I picked the Rams to lose to the Bills.
The pick: Rams 27-24 over 49ers
Point spread prediction: Rams (+2)
Buffalo (10-3) at Detroit (12-1)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I don’t want to say the Rams exposed the Bills in Week 14, but I’m starting to feel like the Rams exposed the Bills. If the Bills have one weakness this season, it’s their entire defense and that’s not a weakness you want to have when you’re about to face the highest-scoring team in the NFL.
Now, before any Bills fans think about sending me any hate mail, let me point out that I don’t think the Bills’ defense is bad, it’s just bad when it’s forced to play on the road against a good team. Heading into Week 15, the Bills have played four road games this year against teams that currently have a winning record and they’ve gone 1-3 in those games while surrendering 28 points per game.
When the defense is playing like that, that means that Josh Allen has to put up a super human effort just to keep his team in the game. In Week 14, the Bills quarterback became the first player in NFL regular-season history to rush for three touchdowns and throw for three touchdowns in the same game and STILL LOST. The Bills also had zero turnovers in the game.
When a team scores six touchdowns and turns the ball over zero times, they usually win, and by usually, I mean that NFL teams were a combined 245-0 when scoring six touchdowns with zero turnovers before the Bills lost to the Rams. Basically, Allen got Joe Burrow’d in Week 14, which is where a quarterback puts up insane numbers, but still loses.
The Bills are 0-2 this season when they surrender at least 300 passing yards and I could see Jared Goff doing that on Sunday. Also, the Bills have struggled to stop the run this year: They’re surrendering nearly 125 yards per game on the ground, and now, they have to face a Lions offense that is averaging the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL (151.1). This feels like a game where Sonic and Knuckles AKA Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery thrive. It’s fitting that they’re named after video game characters, because they might put up video game numbers against this Bills defense.
As if that’s not bad enough for Buffalo, the Lions are going to be rested. They got to play on Thursday in Week 14, which means they’re going to have had three extra days of rest heading into this game. On the other hand, the Bills had to fly across the entire country to get home after suffering a tough loss. Advantage: Lions.
The Bills defense struggled to stop the Ravens and Rams — two teams that both have loaded offenses — and I think we’ll see them struggle to stop the Lions.
If Josh Allen can deliver another six touchdown game on Sunday, then I think the Bills can win, but there’s no way he’s doing that two weeks in a row. Right? RIGHT?!?
The pick: Lions 34-27 over Bills
Point spread prediction: Lions (-2.5)
Pittsburgh (10-3) at Philadelphia (11-2)
4:25 p.m ET (Fox)
I was watching “A Charlie Brown Christmas” the other day, which I’m only mentioning right now because it came out in 1965 and that’s pertinent here because that was the LAST TIME the Steelers won a game in Philadelphia. It’s been 59 YEARS. That was so long ago that someone name Cannonball Butler was returning kickoffs for the Steelers. We just don’t do nicknames like we used to.
Since that 1965 win, the Steelers have gone 0-10 in Philly and that includes 0-3 under Mike Tomlin. In Tomlin’s three games as coach, the Steelers have been outscored 84-22. If Tomlin wants to end that streak, he might want to bring a tank to practice this week and have his defense practice tackling it, since that’s basically what they’ll be doing on Sunday when they go up against Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles star is gunning to become the first running back in 12 years to take home the NFL MVP award and the reason he’s even in the conversation to win it is because he’s been dominant this year. Barkley has already set the Eagles’ franchise record for rushing yards in a season and he did it in just 13 games.
With 1,623 yards on the season, Barkley is on pace for 2,122 yards, which would break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record that has stood since 1984. A big reason the Eagles collapsed last season is because their offense struggled down the stretch and their defense fell apart. The good news for the Eagles is that Barkley fixes both of those problems. If you can run the ball, you can still win, even if your passing game struggles, which is what’s happening with the Eagles right now (Jalen Hurts has been held under 180 passing yards in three straight games, but the Eagles have won all three of those games thanks to Barkley). With Barkley running so well, that allows the Eagles to control the clock, which keeps the defense off the field and if they’re off the field, that keeps them well-rested.
The Eagles are 9-0 this season when Barkley rushes for at least 100 yards, so the big question is: Will he it 100 yards against the Steelers? There are only six teams in the NFL surrendering less than 100 rushing yards per game and the Steelers are one of them. The Steelers passed their biggest test of the year back in Week 11 when they gave up just 65 yards to Derrick Henry in a win over the Ravens. However, that game was at home in Pittsburgh and this game is being played Philadelphia, which has been Pittsburgh’s personal football hell for nearly 60 years.
I can’t pick against 60 years of history.
The pick: Eagles 23-20 over Steelers
Point spread prediction: Steelers (+5)
Tampa Bay (7-6) at L.A. Chargers (8-5)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
If I had to rank the five playoff contenders that I trust the least, these two teams would both definitely make the list. I can’t trust the Buccaneers because they’ve done the same thing every year for the past three years: They win the NFC South and then they flame out in the playoffs. And I can’t trust the Chargers because they’re the Chargers. There’s a reason that the word “Chargering” exists even if my dictionary tries to pretend it doesn’t.
The later the season gets, the harder it is to trust the Chargers. I thought Jim Harbaugh might change that, but so far, that hasn’t been the case.
Although the Chargers have a better record than Tampa Bay, I’m a “what have you done for me, lately” guy and the Buccaneers have done way more for me, lately. Since their Week 11 bye, the Bucs have gone 3-0 and two of those three wins came by at least 15 points. The Buccaneers offense has come alive over the past three weeks with Tampa Bay averaging 438.7 yards per game during their winning streak. Sure, those wins came over the Giants, Panthers and Raiders, and they might not have as much offensive success against the Chargers, but the Los Angeles defense is having its own problems, so maybe the Bucs can put up big numbers.
Since Week 12, the Chargers have gone 1-2 and that record would probably be 0-3 if Kirk Cousins didn’t have a total meltdown with four interceptions against them in Week 13. Despite getting those gifts from Cousins, the Chargers still barely won, 17-13. In their past four games, the Chargers have surrendered 372.3 yards per game, which is a high number when you consider that they only surrendered 302.1 yards per game through their first nine games.
I think what I’m trying to say is that the Chargers defense has struggled against good competition and the Buccaneers offense qualifies as good competition. Also, the Chargers rushing attack has fallen apart without J.K. Dobbins, which is a problem, because this team is 1-5 on the season when they rush for 95 yards or less.
After talking myself through this, I have decided that I trust Tampa Bay 3% more than I trust the Chargers, so I will be taking the Bucs by three points.
The pick: Buccaneers 26-23 over Chargers
Point spread prediction: Buccaneers (+2.5)
Green Bay (9-4) at Seattle (8-5)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
I’m surprised that M. Night Shyamalan hasn’t made a movie about the Packers-Seahawks series, because that guy loves a good twist and there’s no NFL matchup that gives us more twists than when these two teams play each other in Seattle.
Since 2012, the Packers and Seahawks have met four times in Seattle and almost every game has been bonkers. The craziness started 12 years ago in the famous Fail Mary game.
Shyamalan could make a movie about just that game.
After watching that, you’d think, ‘Surely that was craziest Packers-Seahawks game ever,’ but you’d be wrong. In the January 2015, the two teams met in the NFC Championship game. The Packers were winning that game 19-7 with three minutes left to play, but despite having what appeared to be an insurmountable lead, they still managed to lose.
Someone also needs to make a movie about that game. I feel like Jerry Bruckheimer needs to handle that and we need to get Tom Cruise involved.
Since that NFC title game, these team teams have only met once more in Seattle and that came in 2018 when the Seahawks beat the Packers 27-24. It’s now been six years since we’ve been a Packers-Seahawks game in Seattle, which makes sense, because there’s no way that anyone could mentally handle having these two teams play more often than that in Seattle.
And this year, it seems like we could be in for another crazy game. The Seahawks have had trouble stopping the run this season and they’ll be going up against the NFL’s third-leading rusher in Josh Jacobs. I won’t be surprised if Jacobs goes off. And I’m not just saying that because the fantasy football playoffs start this week and Jacobs is on two of my teams.
On the Packers’ end, their defense is surrendering over 220 yards per game through the air and they’ll be facing a quarterback in Geno Smith who’s throw for at least 280 yards in six games this year. The Packers are 7-1 this season when they hold their opponent under 250 passing yards, but 2-3 when they don’t.
The Packers have played six road games this year and five of them have been decided by one score and when you combine that with the crazy history we’ve seen between these two teams over the past 12 years, you can bet something unpredictable is going to happen and unpredictable would be the underdog coming out on top.
The pick: Seahawks 30-27 over Packers
Point spread prediction: Seahawks (+2.5)
NFL Week 15 picks: All the rest
Chief 27-20 over Browns
Bengals 24-17 over Titans
Commanders 31-13 over Saints
Ravens 34-20 over Giants
Panthers 20-17 over Cowboys
Jets 23-16 over Jaguars
Dolphins 30-23 over Texans
Broncos 24-20 over Colts
Cardinals 30-23 over Patriots
Vikings 31-17 over Bears (Monday doubleheader pick)
Falcons 24-13 over Raiders (Monday doubleheader pick)
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Chargers would score exactly 17 points in a loss to the Chiefs and guess what happened? The Chargers scored exactly 17 points in a loss to the Chargers. Now, did I know that the Chiefs were going to win the game by doinking in a field goal attempt off the left upright on the final play? Of course, I did. If you’ve watched any Chiefs football this year, then you already know that they always win in the craziest way possible, so it was pretty clear that a doinked kick was the only way that the game was going to end.
Classic Chiefs.
Worst pick: Picking the Titans to beat the Jaguars was my worst pick of Week 14, but not because I got the pick wrong. It was my worst pick because, for some reason, I predicted that the two teams would combine for 37 points. They could have played 29 quarters over five days and I’m not sure they would have hit the 37-point mark. I mean, all I had to do was take a closer look at the quarterback battle and I would have instantly known that there was no way in the world that this game was going to hit 37 points. A game that features Mac Jones vs. Will Levis just SCREAMS that it’s going to finish with a 10-6 final score, but I didn’t listen to the those screams. I’m now going to go scream in a corner.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Raiders (11-2), Chiefs (11-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (11 straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (5-8), Ravens (5-8, Steelers (5-8)
Longest losing streak: Rams, Titans, Jaguars, Bills (One straight incorrect pick)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 14: 11-2
SU overall: 132-76
Against the spread in Week 14: 5-7-1
ATS overall: 104-100-4
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably checking his email to see if Roger Goodell has responded.
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Author: John Breech
December 11, 2024 | 7:05 pm
