Early in the year, things weren’t going all that well for the Philadelphia Eagles. They won a pair of close games, including one down in Brazil in their season opener, but they also dropped brutal games to the Falcons (in rather embarrassing fashion) and Buccaneers (in a blowout). Since taking their bye in Week 5, though, Philly has been dynamite, ripping off six straight wins and vaulting toward the top of the NFC race.
The biggest turnaround has been on defense. In the first four games, Philly allowed 400-plus yards twice and gave up 385 yards to the Falcons as well. Each of the Falcons, Packers and Buccaneeers scored 22 points or more. The only opponent to struggle offensively was New Orleans, which totaled just 219 yards and put only 12 points on the board.
Since that bye, though, Philly has turned basically every opposing offense into that Saints offense. Just once has a team scored more than 20 points. Not a single opponent has totaled more than 280 yards. Two different teams have been held below 150. The Giants and Cowboys were each held below 50 net passing yards, and the only team to reach 100 rushing yards was the Browns, who reached exactly 100.
The difference in performance really is that stark.
| Games | Before bye week | Since bye week |
|---|---|---|
| Yards/game | 365.8 | 211.3 |
| Points/game | 24.0 | 22.2 |
| EPA/play | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Pass EPA | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| Rush EPA | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| Third-down % | 37.0% | 39.6% |
| Touchdown % | 24.4% | 22.8% |
| Turnover % | 4.9% | 11.1% |
| Punt % | 29.3% | 36.1% |
| Three-and-out % | 19.5% | 31.7% |
| Negative play % | 36.7% | 32.0% |
| Explosive % | 6.5% | 6.1% |
To be sure, some of this is about the schedule. The Eagles faced the Packers, Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers before their bye, and have seen the Browns, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys and Washington since then.
And interestingly, it appears that a significant part of this improvement is simply about turnovers, which the Eagles are forcing more than twice as often as they did prior to the bye. They’re getting more punts and significantly more three-and-outs as a share of opponent possessions, but are giving up explosive plays at about the same rate, stopping plays at or behind the line of scrimmage at a lower rate and allowing opponents to convert third downs at a higher rate than they did before taking their week off.
It’s further notable that eight of the 11 turnovers the has defense forced during this stretch came in games against the Jaguars (who were playing without Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, and with Brian Thomas Jr. clearly operating at less than 100%) and Cowboys (who were starting Cooper Rush).
The schedule does get tougher down the stretch, but really only for the next few weeks. On Sunday night, the Eagles go up against a Rams team that has looked excellent offensively whenever Matthew Stafford has had both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field with him. In Week 13, they have to go up against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. And they get Washington again in Week 16. In the other four games, though, the Eagles get to face the Panthers and Steelers, and then the Cowboys and Giants again.
In other words, the next couple of weeks are probably going to tell us a lot about what this defense really is. And then we might not get to see it face another true test until the playoffs.
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Author: Jared Dubin
November 22, 2024 | 12:40 pm
