Will Brinson’s NFL Week 10 picks, best bets: Rams roll again; AFC West teaser; several touchdown scorers

In a remarkable turn of events, the NFL standings currently feature an astounding nine different teams with two wins or less. Most of them — Carolina, New England, Las Vegas, Tennessee, maybe even the Giants — aren’t surprising. But Cleveland, Jacksonville, Miami and New Orleans are on the list as well, giving us the most two-win teams this late in the season ever, tied with 2006.

Worth noting: the last time the final undefeated team in the NFL won the Super Bowl? Also 2006! Peyton Manning and the Colts topped the Bears that year. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid should at least feel good about their chances at three-peating after moving to 8-0 on Monday night. 

Also worth noting: in 2006, we ended up with a shocking five AFC teams with a .500 record or better who missed the playoffs. The 8-8 Giants were the sixth and final playoff team to sneak into the NFC. 

I think we’ll see something similar, albeit flipped, this year on both sides of the bracket with how things have played out through the first 10 weeks. Two AFC West teams — the Chargers and Broncos — sit at 5-3 and 5-4, respectively. The Colts and Bengals, both at 4-5, plus the 3-6 Jets, are lingering. There’s a really good chance some of these teams fight their way to (or back to?) .500 and battle it out for playoff spots late in the year. 

The NFC is shaping up like the AFC did in 2006. There are going to be a couple good teams who miss the playoffs. The Bears, Rams, 49ers, Buccaneers and Seahawks are all at 4-4 or 4-5 and sitting out of the playoffs as things stand right now. With a 6-3 Packers squad currently owning the seventh seed, it’s going to be an uphill battle in a really competitive conference. 

Week 10 best bets

Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (-125)

I’m a fan of basically any Chase props on Thursday night, as we’re getting a Bengals offense that’s been largely humming the last few weeks against a Ravens defense that is profiling as a pass funnel. We’ve seen plenty of top receiving options score against Baltimore this season including: Xavier Worthy, Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin (twice), Mike Evans, and David Njoku. Oh yeah and Chase himself scored twice against the Ravens already this season. There’s almost no game script where Chase isn’t heavily involved outside of a dominant Bengals win and even then he’d likely be part of the scoring. I expect him to show up in a big way in a big spot and find the end zone.

Bet Ja’Marr Chase props at DraftKings Sportsbook

Saints (+3.5) vs. Falcons

This is a principle play. The Saints got much healthier in Week 9 but still managed to completely botch a layup win against Bryce Young and the Panthers. New Orleans outgained the Panthers by 200 yards, ran for 150 yards and won the turnover margin … and still lost. It got Dennis Allen fired and helped the Saints decide to ship out Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline, which makes this a prime Dead Cat Bounce Game. When a head coach is fired and players are traded, it mostly signifies a team is giving up on the season. We shouldn’t expect the Saints to be good over the rest of the season. But  it immediately ratchets up the pressure on every involved. Derek Carr will take Allen’s ouster personally and has to think he’s playing for his future job, even if he’s got a disastrous cap hit coming in 2025. Chris Olave’s availability is a concern for sure, but it could be countered a bit depending on whether Drake London can play. Regardless, this line feels too short for a much better Falcons team, which makes it just stinky enough to take the Saints.

Bet the Saints against the spread at Caesar’s Sportsbook

Rams (-1) vs. Dolphins

We’re running back the Whale Play of the Week with the same team this week. The Rams stepped up in a big way to beat the Seahawks on Sunday and move to 4-4. The 2-4 start and the Cooper Kupp/Matthew Stafford trade rumors feel a lot longer than two weeks ago. Miami looks like a much better team with Tua Tagovailoa back under center and this could absolutely end up being a close game and/or a shootout. The young Rams defense is making some key plays and while I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down Tyreek Hill in a potential blowup spot, I do think they can manage to turn over the Dolphins and pressure Tua enough to generate some short fields. Offensively, the Rams are cooking. Stafford’s playing outstanding football and he’s got Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy now, along with Kyren Williams (who really could have scored twice Sunday) cooking. The Rams know they’re in the mix in the conference and definitely in the division and this profiles as a must-win spot for Sean McVay against his old buddy Mike McDaniel. 

Bet on the Rams against the spread at Fanatics Sportsbook

TEASER: Chiefs (-1.5) / Chargers (-1.5) 

The Chiefs’ ability to win football games with Mahomes is pretty obvious. They’re massive favorites against a frisky Broncos team, but good luck to Bo Nix and his skill guys against this Kansas City defense. Tampa Bay uncorked the kitchen sink and Sean Payton will have a good game plan, but I don’t think Denver is going to win this game, even if they keep it close for most of the contest. On the other side, we get a Jim Harbaugh-coached mini-juggernaut that’s starting to really open things up offensively. Justin Herbert’s throwing a lot more and the Chargers offense is becoming more variable. They should be able to name their price against the lowly Titans, but I’d rather bring this down and essentially just ask Los Angeles to win. I’m seeing the Chiefs -8.5 in other spots, so this is a good number to grab now. 

Bet a Chiefs/Chargers teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Hurts anytime TD (+100)

Saquon Barkley was an easy first look here, but his TWO-touchdown number is only like +265, which is just wild. The Eagles should be able to move the ball at will against a terrible Cowboys defense and that should result in plenty of red zone possessions. With red zone possessions come short-yardage runs and that should mean some “tush pushes,” which means Hurts finds the end zone. Hurts has 30 carries and six (!) rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks alone as he’s been the guy at the goal line, even with Barkley playing awesome football and doing super-human things by reverse vaulting over opponents.