NFL

NFL Week 10 odds, picks, best bets: Steelers upset Commanders; Saints cover after coaching change

by
SaC Bot
November 6, 2024

It’s hard to believe that we’ve already reached the halfway point of the season, but here we are. Nine weeks of jam-packed football are in the books, and it’s a mad dash down the stretch as some teams try to close in on a playoff berth.

For us, we’ll look to finish the year out strong after an up-and-down betting run through the first half. Last week, we enjoyed ATS wins with the Falcons and Commanders within my five locks with the week, but Cleveland, Denver, and Kansas City were the ones that couldn’t keep it within the number.

As we pivot to Week 10, let’s unveil the picks, beginning with my five locks of the week.

2024 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 22-23
ATS: 59-76-3
ML: 84-54

All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

We get a doozy out of the gate in Week 10 with an AFC North slugfest in Baltimore. These two division rivals went to overtime the last time they faced one another, but I don’t think it’ll be that tightly contested this time around. The Ravens look like arguably the class of the AFC, with Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level. Jackson has historically dominated the Bengals in his career with a 9-1 record while scoring 20 total touchdowns with just five turnovers in his career. Baltimore is also 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups against Cincy. While the Bengals do own a 4-0 ATS record on the road this season, when you peel it back, it’s not that impressive outside of a cover in Kansas City in Week 2. Those other ATS road wins came against the Panthers, Giants, and Browns.

Projected score: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
The picks: Ravens -6

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This is strictly a play revolving around the Saints firing head coach Dennis Allen this week. Typically, teams respond well in the aftermath of a coach being fired, so we’ll ride that trend, particularly with the field goal hook. The Falcons are also a bit banged up coming into this matchup on offense, with top wideout Drake London leaving last week’s matchup due to a hip injury. This season, London has six touchdown receptions. It could slow Atlanta’s scoring ability and keep us within the number if he’s limited or out entirely.

Projected score: Falcons 23, Saints 20
The picks: Saints +3.5

No team has been hotter than the Washington Commanders, as they are 7-1-1 ATS on the year, which includes a 4-0 ATS mark at home. While this team seems primed to win the NFC East under Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels, this could be a spot where they slip up. They face a Steelers team that will be fresh off its bye and have been playing strong football. Defensively, they have a pass rusher that should disrupt Daniels, and their offense has come alive with Russell Wilson under center. Where Pittsburgh has thrived this year has been in the second half of games, where they’ve pulled away from opponents, owning a +76 point differential. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 21st in the league in second-half points allowed (12.7) this season. That, coupled with Pittsburgh owning a 4-0 SU and ATS record in their last four games post-bye, I have them pulling off the upset.

Projected score: Steelers 27, Commanders 24
The picks: Steelers +3

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

It’s time to start looking at the Chargers as a playoff team. Jim Harbaugh has Los Angeles playing at a high level, and Justin Herbert has started to get hot under center. The sportsbooks certainly are giving them their due by making them a two-score favorite at home against Tennessee, and I don’t see them having a problem putting this game away with relative ease, The Titans have a league-worst 1-7 ATS record this season and are averaging just 4.7 yards per play (28th in the NFL). That depleted offense is now tasked with going against an L.A. defense that is allowing 12.6 points per game (second-fewest in the NFL). The Chargers are 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season, and I expect that number to improve after Week 10.

Projected score: Chargers 23, Titans 13
The picks: Chargers -7.5

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

As we’ve noted here before, there’s really not a number that can scare us away from backing Detroit. Sure, laying the field goal with the hook on the road isn’t an ideal spot, but the Lions have shown that they can clear lofty hurdles and are 7-1 ATS on the season. That includes a 4-0 ATS mark on the road, and three of those ATS wins came as a road favorite. Detroit hasn’t faltered under the primetime lights, either. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 8-0 ATS in primetime games, while the Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games on “Sunday Night Football.” Meanwhile, the Texans are allowing the most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so Amon-Ra St. Brown’s anytime touchdown prop on DraftKings could also be worth a sprinkle.

Projected score: Lions 30, Texans 24
The picks: Lions -3.5