The Dallas Cowboys 2024 season is likely as cooked as a Thanksgiving turkey despite being just nine weeks in.ย
Dallas is 3-5 through nine weeks following three deflating defeats: a 47-9 home faceplant in Week 6 against the Detroit Lions, a 30-24 road loss in Week 8 at the San Francisco 49ers that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard indicated and a sloppy 27-21 road stumble in Week 9 at the Atlanta Falcons.ย
Three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott has already been ruled out for Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles with a hamstring injury he suffered at the Falcons in Week 9, per head coach Mike McCarthy, and owner and general manager Jerry Jones said Prescott is likely to be put on injured reserve. That means he is set to miss a minimum of four games. All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb also suffered a shoulder injury last week in Atlanta, and he is undergoing testing to determine his status going forward. That’s on top three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (ankle) and four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) being out since Week 4. Plus, 2023 first-team All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland, who led the NFL with nine interceptions including an NFL single-season record five pick-sixes, has yet to play a game in 2024 after suffering a stress fracture in his foot the last week of training camp.ย
Outside of Prescott’s season-ending ankle injury in 2020, the Cowboys are in the midst of their toughest season of the McCarthy era in 2024 following three consecutive 12-win seasons from 2021 to 2023. Dallas has been outscored by 54 points this season, the ninth-worst point differential in the NFL, and their minus seven turnover differential is tied for the third-worst in the league. Thanks to having the NFL’s second-worst rushing offense, averaging 82 rushing yards per game, and the league’s third-worst run defense, surrendering an average of 147.8 rushing yards per game, Dallas has been outrushed by 526 yards, the worst differential in the NFL this season. Add all of that up on top of the Cowboys readying to play the following three-game gauntlet on their 2024 schedule: home against the 6-2 Eagles in Week 10, home against the 6-3 Houston Texans in Week 11 and at the 7-2 Washington Commanders in Week 12, and it’s clear their season is on the brink of collapse.
“It’s definitely hard. I just think this is the path that’s been cut out for us. We’re going through adversity and it’s a phenomenal opportunity for us as a team is frankly what we talked about in the team meeting today,” McCarthy said on Monday.ย
Cowboys this season
Weeks 1-3 | Weeks 4-5 | Weeks 6-9 | |
---|---|---|---|
W-L | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
Points Scored | 77 | 40 | 54 |
Points Allowed | 89 | 32 | 104 |
Turnover Differential | 0 | -1 | -6 |
Opponent W-L | 10-17* | 8-9** | 17-8*** |
* at Browns, vs. Saints, vs. Ravens
*** vs. Lions, at 49ers, at Falcons
Here’s a look at where the Cowboys report card through the season’s first half. ย
Offense: D
Dallas’ 2024 attack has been a shell of what its 2023 form looked like. The Cowboys led the league in scoring offense (29.9 points per game) with Prescott atop the NFL in passing touchdowns (36), and 2023 first-team All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb ranking No. 1 in the league in receptions (135) en route to a third consecutive 12-5 campaign. The first half of 2024 has been a far cry with the Cowboys averaging 21.4 points per game (20th in the league) in the midst of a 3-5 first half of the season.ย
The drop off makes sense when weighing a number of factors. First off, the offensive ecosystem is significantly altered. Dallas is starting two rookies at arguably the two most important offensive line positions in first-round left tackle Tyler Guyton, who predominantly played right tackle at Oklahoma, and third-round center Cooper Beebe, who didn’t take a snap at center in a single game at Kansas State. Guyton’s nine accepted penalties against him this season are tied for the second-most in the NFL and ahead of only struggling Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil’s 13. Right tackle Terence Steele is also having a rough go in his second season removed from a torn ACL: his 25 quarterback pressures allowed this season are tied for the fourth-most in the NFL.ย
Growing pains in pre-snap communication up front because of the two rookies, and the team choosing to spearhead its running game with veteran undrafted free agent Rico Dowdle and past-their-prime versions of Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, have resulted in the Cowboys possessing the second-worst run game in the league, averaging 82.0 rushing yards per game. The inability to have an even slightly threatening run game and the inexperience upfront are major reasons why Prescott has struggled thus far. He has registered just 11 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions, his most interceptions through seven games in his career. Prescott ranks bottom 10 in the NFL in completion percentage (63.7%, 22nd in the NFL), touchdown-to-interception ratio (10-8, 24th) and passer rating (84.5, 24th) this season. Prescott’s eight interceptions and 6.9 yards per pass attempt are both his worst through eight games to start a season in his nine-year career. All of the aforementioned factors above plus Dallas not adding a wide receiver until trading for former Carolina Panthers second-round pick Jonathan Mingo on Tuesday also explains why Lamb has caught a career-low 63.1% of his targets. He’s talked about seeing double teams earlier in game and more frequently overall throughout the season.ย
Dak Prescott NFL Ranks, 2023 vs. 2024 | 2023 | 2024 |
---|---|---|
Completion Pct | 69.5% (2nd) | 64.7% (20th) |
Pass Yards | 4,516 (3rd) | 1,978 (11th) |
Pass Yards/Att | 7.7 (6th) | 6.9 (22nd) |
Pass TD | 36 (1st) | 11 (T-10th) |
TD-INT | 36-9 (2nd) | 11-8 (26th) |
Passer Rating | 105.9 (2nd) | 86.0 (24th) |
Expected Points Added/Play | 0.18 (2nd) | -0.09 (24th) |
Tight Window Throw Pct* | 18.3% (29th) | 21.3% (Last) |
Average Yards of Separation/Target* | 3.1 (31st) | 3.1 (33rd)** |
* Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats
** Out of 35 qualified QBs
Defense: D
Dallas’ defense established an elite reputation built on takeaways from 2021 to 2023 under former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who is now the Washington Commanders head coach. During the Cowboys’ three years in a row with 12 wins from 2021 to 2023, they led the NFL in takeaways (93), interceptions (59) and quarterback pressure rate (41.4%). Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs leads the NFL with 16 interceptions since 2021, but only one of those has come in 2024. That was back in Week 1 off Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Cowboys numbers have taken a nose dive in 2024 without Parsons (sidelined since Week 4) and Bland (out since the end of training camp with a stress fracture in his foot). They have allowed nine passing touchdowns and haven’t forced an interception since Parsons, the 2023 quarterback pressures leader, went down in Week 4. Dallas’ five takeaways in 2024 are tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL, while the defense is slightly below average (17th in the league) in quarterback pressure rate (34.4%).ย
The lack of takeaways can be attributed to injures to their top four defensive ends plus Bland and roster attrition fromย Jerry Jones’ “all in” offseason. However, the premise of new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s defense is a lot less geared toward splash plays, which include takeaways, than Dan Quinn’s scheme was from 2021-2023. Dallas played man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL from 2021-2023 (33.8%), but in 2024 that figure was dropped to 26.9%, about middle of the pack — 14th-most in the league. To be fair to Zimmer, it’s hard to have faith in calling man coverage when players like Diggs fail to communicate and execute at a critical juncture like a fourth and three at the Falcons in Week 9. Diggs, who said players are still getting used to Zimmer’s scheme last week, and other defensive backs couldn’t get lined up correctly out of a timeout and surrendered a 36-yard touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins to wide receiver Darnell Mooney on a wheel route.ย
Special Teams: B+
Punter Bryan Anger’s 44.9 net yards per punt ranked as the second-best in the NFL last season, but he is down to a 42.3 average this season, which ranks as 16th in the league thus far in 2024. Cowboys kick returner KaVontae Turpin leads the NFL in yards per kickoff return at 34.2, which is strong. Kicker Brandon Aubrey, the 2023 first-team All-Pro, is stellar once again this season as he has drained 20 of his 22 field goals. Aubrey’s nine made field goals from 50 yards or deeper are the second-most in the NFL, including two from 60 yards or deeper. The rest of the league has combined to make only two field goals from 60 or beyond. He is also one of two kickers to have an onside kick recovered under the new rules this season.ย
Special teams coordinator John “Bones” Fassel is off to another strong start in 2024, outside of a failed fake punt pass in Week 9 at the Falcons that he took responsibility for on Monday. The only thing keeping this grade from being at least A-minus is an NFL-worst 17 special teams penalties.ย
Coaching: D
The Cowboys 62 penalties accepted against them are the eighth-most in the NFL, but what’s even worse is how their homefield advantage from 2022 and 2023 has completely vanished. They have lost four consecutive home games after winning 16 in a row including playoffs, and they suffered their largest home loss under Jones, since 1989, when they lost 47-9 against the Lions in Week 6. Dallas has been outscored by 66 points in three home losses this season, 119 to 53. How bad is that? Well, no team has been outscored by that many points in their first three home games and made the playoffs.ย
With Prescott out, McCarthy has gone the conservative route, tapping longtime backup Cooper Rush as the team’s starter going forward. Dallas has won five of his six starts in place of an injured Prescott, including four of five when he was sidelined with an injury on his throwing hand in 2022. The difference between then and now is Pro Bowl running back Tony Pollard and eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith were on the roster, and the Cowboys defense was playing like a top five to top 10 unit. Despite Dallas trading a fourth-round pick to the 49ers for the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft in Trey Lance, McCarthy isn’t willing to start him at the moment even though he possesses better athletic traits and upside than the known commodity in Rush.ย
Failing to play clean football, failing to protect homefield and conservative decision-making, schematically and with personnel, have doomed Dallas through nine weeks. There’s plenty for them to clean up in the second half, but with their depleted roster, in comparison to past seasons, it may not be fair to expect a turnaround in the final nine games of 2024.ย
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Author: Garrett Podell
November 6, 2024 | 11:35 am