Ranking NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates: Jayden Daniels emerges as heavy favorite

The NFL regular season is roughly half complete, so now is an appropriate time to update the NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year award races. Fans will find that one player has taken a commanding lead on offense, while there are reasons to believe the defensive award is still up for grabs.

Below, I rank the five offensive and defensive players for each award, as well as a sleeper.

All NFL betting odds come via the Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in the game.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

1. QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders: -1400
2. QB Caleb Williams, Bears: +2800
3. WR Malik Nabers, Giants: +2200
4. TE Brock Bowers, Raiders: +2500 
5. QB Bo Nix, Broncos: +2500

Earlier this week, Daniels became an even heavier betting favorite to win the award. Quarterbacks have won the award four of the past 10 years, which is equal to the number of times that a running back has won it in the same timeframe. Wide receivers won the other two years. The reality is that, short of a record-breaking performance, the award will skew toward quarterbacks as long as there is a deserving winner. Daniels has been more than deserving, as he is the first rookie quarterback since 1950 to lead his team to wins in seven of its first nine games. His two turnovers are the fewest in a quarterback’s first nine games since 1991, and his 71.5% completion percentage is the highest ever for a rookie in his first nine games. 

Williams has not looked good in recent weeks. He needs to re-gain form in order to have a realistic shot at winning the award, and that timeline must run parallel to Daniels coming back to Earth a bit. 

Bowers and Nabers, who are second and third in the league in receptions, would need to put up record-breaking numbers. Nabers had been on a compelling pace, but a concussion cost him two games and his quarterback play has not exactly helped his cause. Bowers is more volume than dynamic and will lack memorable moments on a team closer to fighting for the No. 1 overall selection than a playoff berth. 

Sleeper: QB Drake Maye, Patriots (+10000)

Maye did not begin the season as a starter like his peers, so he is behind the curve. He willed the Patriots to overtime last week with a miraculous last-second touchdown pass in regulation. If he is able to build upon that moment — and Daniels and Williams do not run away with the award, then Maye has an outside chance. A lack of team success will hurt him, but as far as sleepers are concerned, holding a quarterback ticket is the wisest play.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. EDGE Jared Verse, Rams: -175
2. CB Quinyon Mitchell, Eagles: +1100
3. CB Cooper DeJean, Eagles: +1600
4. DT Braden Fiske, Rams: +1600
5. CB Kamari Lassiter, Texans: +2000

In four of the past eight years, players able to accumulate nine-plus sacks in a season have been in pole position when it comes to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Shaquille Leonard were previously able to win with seven sacks. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Marshon Lattimore won it the other two years. From a statistical perspective, it is more difficult for cornerbacks to construct a case for the award, even when their quality of play suggests that they deserve consideration. 

Verse has the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL (20.3%) among players with at least 100 pass rush snaps this season, according to TruMedia. Fiske, his teammate, is second-highest (14.6%) among rookies and No. 22 overall. Verse would be a heavier favorite if he had more than 3.5 sacks. 

Mitchell, DeJean and Lassiter have all had varying degrees of success with Mitchell being the most consistent contributor. However, the trio has combined for just three interceptions. 

Sleeper: S Calen Bullock, Texans (+2800)

Bullock has been targeted 15 times this season for 95 yards, according to TruMedia. His three interceptions are tied with Steelers cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. for the rookie lead. If a singular player does not take a commanding lead, then a player like Bullock could slip in the back door.