Welcome to the Halloween edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It’s pretty clear that Macaulay Culkin got the memo that today is Halloween, and I know that because he has the best costume of anyone: The “Home Alone” star decided to dress up as Joe Burrow. You can see the pictures here. As a noted Bengals homer, I will be celebrating his costume by watching at least one Macaulay Culkin move per day during the entire month of November. I hope my kids like “Home Alone” and “Home Alone 2.”
Speaking of Halloween costumes, we also have Christian McCaffrey dressing up as the Tin Man, which I’m only mentioning, because based on the video of him, he would clearly rather be playing football than dressing up like the Tin Man (You can see his costume here). Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert also had an interesting couples costume and you can see it here.
As for me, my 4-year-old picked my costume, so I’ll be dressing up as Bluey’s dad, Bandit, this year.
If you need something scary to watch tonight, the Jets will be playing and that should be enough to terrify everyone in your family. Anyway, we’ll be previewing their game against the Texans in today’s newsletter, plus we’ll be unveiling our 2024 Midseason All-Rookie Team.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Texans at Jets
It’s fitting that the Jets are playing on Halloween because watching them play is more horrifying than anything else that could possibly be on television tonight. At 2-6, the Jets will be looking to save their season and if that’s going to happen, they’re going to have to knock off the Texans.
Houston won’t have Stefon Diggs, who’s out for the season with a torn ACL. On the Jets’ end, they’ll be going into the game with a new kicker after placing Greg Zuerlein on injured reserve this week. That move means that either Riley Patterson or Spencer Shrader will be handling the kicking duties tonight.
Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight:
- Why the Texans can win: The Texans will be missing their two top receivers (Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins), but they’ll still have Joe Mixon and that could be the reason why they end up winning. Mixon has flown under-the-radar this year even though he’s one of just three players in the NFL averaging over 100 rushing yards per game on the season. The Jets are surrendering more than 125 yards per game on the ground and if Mixon can get going against New York’s defense, that will likely put Houston in firm control of the game.
- Why the Jets can win: The Jets have the sixth-most sacks in the NFL this year and if they can get to C.J. Stroud, that could put New York in a position to win. The Texans are just 5-6 in Stroud’s career when he’s sacked three or more times, but 10-2 when he’s sacked two times or less. The Jets have the ultimate sack machine in Will McDonald IV, who ranks second in the NFL with eight sacks. The Jets will also need Aaron Rodgers to play better, but that’s a given based on how the season has gone so far.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jeff Kerr by clicking here.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Joe Mixon OVER 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM): With Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs both out, I feel like that’s going to mean we see Mixon get a huge workload tonight. The Texans running back has played in five games this season and he’s rushed for at least 102 yards in four of those games. He’s also one of just three running backs in the NFL averaging at least 100 yards per game this year. Basically, Mixon should see a lot of action and he’ll be facing a Jets defense that isn’t great at stopping the run.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Ka’imi Fairbairn OVER 7.5 points (+100 at BetMGM): The Texans have already played four games in the month of October and Fairbairn has scored at least 10 points in each of those games. He’s been one of the best kickers in the NFL this year and DeMeco Ryans isn’t afraid to use him. I also like the fact that Fairbairn is averaging 9.3 points per game, so getting even money on the over here feels like a steal. There’s also going to be perfect kicking weather tonight with the temperature expected to be in the mid-70s around kickoff (As we get later in the season, you have to watch the weather closely before betting on a kicking prop).
And in case you’re wondering, my props are 22-15 on the season (11-6 on kicker props and 11-9 on all other props).
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR ‘TNF’
Kerr’s pick: Texans 26-24 over Jets
Prisco’s pick: Jets 31-23 over Texans
My pick: Jets 23-20 over Texans
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. QB carousel: Jordan Love might play, Derek Carr likely to return this week
The biggest QB news this week came from the Indianapolis Colts, who decided to send Anthony Richardson to the bench in favor of Joe Flacco. Although that QB situation is settled for now, that’s not the case with every team.
Let’s take a look at the starting QB spots that are still up in the air heading into Week 9:
- Packers: Jordan Love. There’s a good chance Love won’t practice this week after suffering a groin injury in Week 8, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t play. During an interview on Wednesday, Love was asked if he would be able to start, even if he doesn’t practice. “I think it’s realistic,” Love said. “Obviously not practicing during the week is not the ideal format for trying to play a game.” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said the team would take things one day at a time and that Love could “potentially” play on Sunday against the Lions even if he doesn’t practice. If Love can’t go, Malik Willis will get his third start of the season.
- Saints: Derek Carr. After missing the past three games due to an oblique injury, Carr is finally expected to return this week. Saints coach Dennis Allen said on Wednesday that his “expectation” is that Carr is “going to be ready to go.” With Carr on the field, the Saints went 2-3 this year, but without him, they went 0-3. If the Saints want to have any chance of saving their season, they’ll have to win on Sunday in Carolina.
- Panthers: Bryce Young. For the second straight week, Bryce Young will be starting for the Panthers. Young got the start last week after Andy Dalton sprained his right thumb in a car accident. Dalton did return to practice this week, but the Panthers are going to take it slow with him and let Young start this week’s game against New Orleans. Young was the starter back in Week 1 when the Panthers lost to the Saints, 47-10, so the Panthers will be hoping that things go much better this time around.
In other QB news, two MVP candidates both missed practice on Wednesday. Lamar Jackson didn’t practice and he was listed on the injury report with back and knee issues. However, Ravens coach John Harbaugh said it was a veteran rest day for his QB. Jared Goff also missed practice due to an ankle injury, but he said he “should be fine” for this week’s game against Green Bay.
We’re tracking every key injury around the NFL heading into Week 9 and you can see that here.
3. NFL trade deadline: Biggest roster hole that needs to be filled for five different contenders
The NFL trade deadline is just five days away, so to celebrate that fact, Bryan DeArdo decided to take a look at five different contending teams and the biggest hole they each need to fill before the trade deadline.
Let’s check out the top-three needs on DeArdo’s list
1. Lions: EDGE rusher. “It’s no secret that Detroit has been in the market for an edge rushing since Aidan Hutchinson sustained an injury that will sideline him for the rest of the rest of the regular season. … A name that has been floated around is Za’Darius Smith, a three-time Pro Bowler who is in the middle of his second season with the Browns. Smith, after having a so-so 2023 season, has returned to form this year. His 5.5 sacks through eight games is more than double what the Lions’ current leader in sacks has (Alim McNeill) with Hutchinson out. “
2. Texans: Wide receiver. “Stefon Diggs’ season-ending injury has created a void the Texans will surely try to fill before the deadline. This won’t be easy, however, as they are likely competing with several other teams to try to find the best-available receiver in what is a dwindling market. The stock might be low, but the cupboard isn’t entirely bare regarding receivers. Darius Slayton is a possible option, along with Panthers veteran Adam Thielen.”
3. Cowboys: Running back. “Jerry Jones has taken heat for not pursuing Derrick Henry, who wanted to sign with Dallas but is instead enjoying an MVP-caliber year in Baltimore. Jones would be wise to place a call to Panthers general manager Dan Morgan to gauge interest in a possible trade for running back Chuba Hubbard, who has been one of the NFL’s most underrated players since entering the league back in 2021.”
You can check out all five teams in DeArdo’s ranking by reading his full story here.
4. Ranking the five scariest NFL schedules for the second half of the season
Since today is Halloween, we thought it would be a good time to rank the five scariest schedules for the second half of the NFL season. The season won’t officially hit the halfway point until Week 9 is over, but we’re not going to wait until Week 9 is over, we’re going to rank things now.
This ranking is taking a look at the contenders who will be facing the toughest road over the second half of the season:
1. Bears (4-3). I felt bad for the Bears after watching them lose on a Hail Mary in Week 8, and after looking at their second-half schedule, I feel even worse. The Bears still haven’t played a single division game, which means six of their final 10 games will be coming against NFC North teams. Also, nine of their final 10 games are against teams that are currently .500 or above. Remaining strength of schedule: .632
2. Lions (6-1). If the Lions end up with the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, they’re absolutely going to have earned it. Over their final 10 games, they have to play three teams that are currently in first place or a tie for first place (Bills, Texans, 49ers), not to mention, they still have to play the Packers twice and the Vikings once. Remaining strength of schedule: .610
3. 49ers (4-4). It’s a good thing the 49ers are likely getting Christian McCaffrey back after the bye, because they’re going to need him. There are currently seven teams in the NFL with six wins or more and the 49ers have to face three of them over their final nine games (Bills, Packers, Lions). Remaining strength of schedule: .574
4. Packers (6-2). The NFC North is the best division in the NFL this year and the Packers will have to close the season by playing five of their final nine games against divisional opponents. They also have the 49ers in there, so the Packers better hope that Jordan Love gets fully healthy soon. Remaining strength of schedule: .561
5. Steelers (6-2). The Steelers are on a bye this week, but when they return from that bye, they’re going to be facing one of the most brutal second-half stretches of any team in the NFL. Over their final nine games, they have to face both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow twice. Not to mention, they also have to face Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts. The Steelers also play the Browns twice and those games look much more difficult now that Jameis Winston is the QB in Cleveland. Remaining strength of schedule: .542
The Bears and Lions are the only two teams in the NFL that have a remaining strength of schedule over .600.
For Halloween, we also ranked the scariest teams (check it out here) along with the five scariest defensive players in the NFL right now (You can see that story here).
5. 2024 Midseason All-Rookie Team: Packers lead the way with three players
We don’t just have tricks today, we also have some treats and our biggest treat is the unveiling of our Midseason All-Rookie Team. CBSSports.com NFL Draft guru Chris Trapasso has been keeping a close eye on every rookie all season and heading into Week 9, here’s who made the cut on the offensive side of the ball of his All-Rookie Team.
QB: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers
WR: Malik Nabers, Giants
WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
WR: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
TE: Brock Bowers, Raiders
OL: Dominick Puni, 49ers
OL: Joe Alt, Cardinals
C: Tanor Bortolini, Colts
OL: J.C. Latham, Titans
OL: Jordan Morgan, Packers
The Packers were the only team to land three rookies on the midseason team. If you want to see the full team, you can do that here.
6. Extra points: Jameson Williams could face weapons charge
It’s been a busy week in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Jameson William in murky legal situation. The Lions receiver has already been hit with a two-game suspension for PEDs, and now, he’s facing even more trouble. Williams was involved in a recent traffic stop and police in Detroit have now launched an internal investigation to see why Williams was let go without being charged even though he had a gun on him. You can read the details here. According to the Detroit Free Press, Williams could still face a felony weapons charge and if that happens, it could open him up for more punishment from the NFL.
- Hall of Fame contributor class trimmed down to nine semifinalists. The contributor category is a competitive one this year with Robert Kraft, Art Modell and Art Rooney Jr. among the nine candidates who could get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year. The group of nine will be trimmed down to one finalist on Nov. 12 and that person will be voted on for induction into the Hall of Fame in February. You can check out the full list of contributor candidates here.
- Steelers get former Pro Bowler back from suspension. When the Steelers return to the field in Week 10, they’re going to finally have Cam Sutton. The cornerback started 17 games for the Lions last season, but the team released him in March after he was arrested on a domestic violence warrant. Sutton spent six seasons with the Steelers from 2017 thru 2022 and started 56 games for them in that span, so Mike Tomlin decided to bring him in for the 2024 season. Sutton was suspended eight games due to his arrest, but he’s now eligible to return.
- Earnest Jones IV got to play the same team two weeks in a row. In his final game with the Titans, Jones got to face the Bills back in Week 7. A few days later, he was traded from Tennessee to Seattle. The fun part here is that he then got to play the Bills AGAIN in Week 8, but this time with the Seahawks. That made Jones the first player in 35 years to play the same team in back-to-back weeks after being traded. You can read more about this interesting nugget here.
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Author: John Breech
October 31, 2024 | 1:35 pm
