Nostalgia will be in the air when the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in a matchup between 2-0 teams.
Chargers coach John Harbaugh will return to the city where he nearly pulled off what would been one of the most remarkable plays in NFL history. Had Aaron Bailey been able to hold on to his Hail Mary on the final play of the 1995 AFC Championship game, Harbaugh and the Colts would have advanced to the Super Bowl, while in the process handing the Steelers a second straight gut-wrenching playoff defeat (the Steelers were upset by the Chargers at home in the ’94 AFC title game).
On the other side, there’s some irony in that Justin Fields will make his Steelers home debut 20 years after Ben Roethlisberger made his in what was an unexpected year for both him and Pittsburgh, who went 15-1 during the regular season. Fields is off to a similar strong start, and so are the Steelers after winning both of their first two games on the road for the first time in 25 years.
Nostalgia aside, this is a compelling matchup between two teams who are eerily similar. Both Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have strong running games and tough defenses that are spearheaded by some of the NFL’s best linebackers. A big storyline for this game is the status of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who is questionable to play after he sustained a high-ankle sprain during last week’s win over Carolina.
Now that the table has been set, here’s how you can follow the action in real time, along with a full breakdown of Sunday’s game and a prediction to boot.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 22 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Steelers -3, O/U 34.5
When the Steelers have the ball
Pittsburgh scored 10 points (and should have had more) in the first half last week in Denver but were lucky to eek out a field goal during the second half.
What changed? Denver went to a one-high safety look and crowded the line of scrimmage. The result was Fields going just 3 of 8 for 16 yards in the second half, Pittsburgh failing to convert any of their seven third-down situations, and Najee Harris averaging 2 yards less per carry in the second half than he did in the first half.
You can bet that the Chargers will employ a similar strategy against the Steelers in an attempt to stop the run while forcing Fields to beat them with his arm. That would present a stiff challenge for Fields as the Chargers possess one of the NFL’s top secondaries, led by three-time Pro Bowler Derwin James. The unit allowed just one touchdown pass during its first two games.
Really, I’m not expecting the Steelers to do many things differently than the past two weeks. Pittsburgh largely played it safe in Atlanta, gave Fields a longer leash to take chances in Denver and he’ll likely be given a similar allowance on Sunday. But really, the Steelers offense is going to continue to center on the running game and Fields making enough plays to keep the Chargers honest.
Pittsburgh will have a new wrinkle for Sunday in rookie wideout Roman Wilson, who will make his NFL debut after getting injured early in training camp. The Steelers are hoping that Wilson can help create more space for George Pickens, who has played well so far but has yet to break out.
The Steelers are also hoping to execute better after penalties last Sunday wiped out a 51-yard completion from Fields to Pickens and a Pickens touchdown catch. Broderick Jones, the Steelers’ 2023 first-round pick who was benched after committing several penalties, will start in place of rookie Troy Fautanu, who was placed on injured reserve after tweaking his knee during Friday’s practice.
Pittsburgh represents the best offense Los Angeles has faced so far, but the same thing can be said about the Steelers in regard to the Chargers defense. Specifically, the Chargers have been lights out on third down and in the red zone. The Los Angeles defense is No. 2 in the NFL on third down and No. 1 in the red zone. That isn’t a good sign for the Steelers, who struggled on third down in Denver and have scored just one touchdown through two games. Getting enough yards on first and second down and avoiding too many third-and-longs is going to be paramount for Pittsburgh.
The Chargers have several studs on defense, but the two players the Steelers must contain are pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Both players are capable of taking over a game while wreaking havoc on an opponent’s backfield. This is where the Steelers’ heavy-tight end set pays dividends.
When the Chargers have the ball
Clearly, Herbert’s status is going to heavily determine what happens when the Chargers have the ball. If Herbert plays (I’m expecting him to), he’s going to be largely stationary, which will undoubtedly lead to problems.
Pittsburgh isn’t called “Blitzburgh” for nothing. The Steelers defense is built around applying pressure, led by former Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and fellow linebackers Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig. Pittsburgh was already planning to pressure Herbert, and his injury only reinforces that plan.
The Chargers are aware of this, and they’ll try to use the Steelers’ aggressiveness to their advantage. Expect Los Angles to offset Pittsburgh’s rush with trick plays, screens, misdirections, etc. If the Chargers are able to get enough chunk plays early, that’ll likely force Pittsburgh to cool their jets, which in turn would allow Los Angeles to be the aggressors on offense.
The engine behind the Chargers offense will be running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, two players the Steelers are very familiar with dating to their years in Baltimore. Dobbins is finally healthy after injuries limited him to just nine games the previous two years. He currently leads the NFL in rushing and also has the NFL’s longest run (61 yards).
A bowling ball of a back, Dobbins had one of the best games of his career in Pittsburgh back in 2022. He rushed for 120 yards and a score on just 15 carries while leading Baltimore to a 16-14 win.
Arguably the biggest matchup in this game is between the Chargers offensive line and the Steelers defensive front, especially the matchup between Watt and Joe Alt, the Chargers starting right tackle and No. 5 overall pick. If Pittsburgh’s front can apply pressure while also containing Dobbins and Edwards, it’s going to be a long day for Herbert and the rest of the Chargers offense.
But if Herbert has time, rest assured that he will test Pittsburgh’s vastly improved secondary downfield. This is where second-year wideout Quentin Johnston is going to be key. Johnson has played well so far, but he’s going to have to win his share of matchups against Joey Porter Jr., the Steelers’ top corner. Also look for the Chargers to try to get rookie Ladd McConkey involved early in an attempt to offset Pittsburgh’s pressure.
Something tells me that the Chargers will use their tight ends more on Sunday than they did in their first two games, especially Hayden Hurst, who had some success against Pittsburgh during his lone year with the Bengals back in 2022.
Prediction
This game is going to come down to three keys: Fields’ success in the passing game, turnovers, and the Chargers’ rushing attack. Whoever wins two of these keys will likely end up winning the game.
The Chargers can’t allow Fields to get find his rhythm. But even if he does and the Steelers take an early lead, don’t expect the Chargers to abandon the running game. Los Angeles plans on making Sunday’s game a marathon, not a sprint.
With matchups this tight, the tiebreaker for me is usually the quarterback matchup. Even though Fields has played well, and even though Herbert is physically compromised, I’m taking Herbert and the Chargers as Harbaugh gets his long-awaited win in Pittsburgh.
This, of course, is contingent on Herbert playing. The Steelers should win with ease if Easton Stick — who owns an 0-4 career record as a regular-season starter — is the Chargers quarterback on Sunday.
Predicted score: Chargers 19-16
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Author: Bryan DeArdo
September 22, 2024 | 6:30 am
