NFL Week 2: Why intermediate passing game, blitz pickup will determine whether Vikings or 49ers move to 2-0

The margins between winning and losing in the National Football League can be razor thin.

That’s why it’s time to take a closer look at one of Week 2’s biggest showdowns between a couple of 1-0 teams, the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings. We’ll examine the two biggest matchups, one on each side of the football, and figure who has the advantage each in each key area. Let’s get to it.

WARNING: we are entering Week 2, so Week 1 and recent, past seasons are all we have to look back on as far as data points go

Vikings offense vs. 49ers defense

New Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold, who was Brock Purdy’s 49ers backup in 2023, looked like a new man in Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense during their 28-6 Week 1 road win at the New York Giants. He completed 19 of his 24 passes, including a career-high 12 in a row to start the game, for 208 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. His 79.2% completion was the third-best in Week 1, he was only sacked once and his sole interception came on a tipped pass. One game is an incredibly small sample size, but Darnold played like top-five quarterback among Week 1 passers as his 113.2 passer rating was the fifth-best in the NFL.

His top target, 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, is unquestionably a top-five wide receiver in football. He became just the third player all-time to total at least 1,000 receiving yards (1,074) while playing in 10 or fewer games. Since his dominant OPOY run in 2022, Jefferson has been elite at separating and producing on intermediate throws, passes traveling 10 to 19 yards through the air, ranking top-five in targets (93), catches (62) and receiving yards (1,129) in that span. 

Justin Jefferson intermediate area receiving
since 2022

* Intermediate Area= 10-19 yards

** Jefferson won the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award

On the flip side, the 49ers have been one of the NFL’s best five units at defending intermediate passes thanks to All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga patrolling the middle of the field. 

San Francisco 49ers intermediate area pass defense
Since 2022

Per NFL Pro Insights

A huge factor in determining which side has the edge can be answered by a simple question: Will Darnold have enough time to throw? He was only sacked once despite being under pressure on 42.3% of his dropbacks at the Giants, the fourth-highest rate in Week 1. Darnold being under pressure wasn’t an issue last week because he completed all five of his passes against the blitz for 81 yards and a touchdown, per NFL Pro’s Insights. He got the ball out with 2.46 seconds average time to throw against the blitz, the 12th-fastest in the NFL in Week 1. However, San Francisco hasn’t blitzed much at all since new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen joined Shanahan’s staff as a defensive assistant in 2022 with 22.5% blitz rate, the eighth-lowest in football. 

Without the advantage of being able to quickly diagnose a defense with less players dropped back in coverage, Darnold may struggle to get the football out to Jefferson as much as needed to ensure victory.

Edge: 49ers

49ers offense vs. Vikings defense

Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is notorious for his aggressive blitz schemes. No other team blitzed more than the Vikings’ 50.7% rate last season, but they only had a quarterback pressure ratee of 32.1%, 27th in the NFL. Flores’ bunch went against tendency in Week 1 at the Giants, probably because they felt like they didn’t need to throw the kitchen sink at the struggling Daniel Jones, a player Minnesota admitting feeling sorry for. 

They blitzed on only 22.4% of the Giants’ dropbacks, 21st in the league in Week 1. Facing a beleaguered New York offensive line, Minnesota generated a quarterback pressure rate of 40.8%, the sixth-highest of Week 1 with 20 quarterback pressures, the third-highest of any team last week. Their five sacks were the second-most of any team, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys‘ six against a similarly struggling Deshaun Watson. 

Should Flores return to his blitz-happy ways against the defending NFC champions, it could play into the 49ers’ respective hand. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy tore up Flores’ blitz in Week 7 last season, completing 14 of 16 throws against it for 183 yards and a touchdown, while facing the blitz on over half (51.5%) of his dropbacks, per NFL Pro Insights. There are so many easy answers against the blitz for Purdy from Deebo Samuel to Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffery (if healthy).  Although, one of his two incompletions against Flores’ blitz last season was an interception on a play that began at midfield. Cornerback Camryn Bynum intercepted the pass with only 5:36 left in the game and Minnesota up five, 22-17. The Vikings ended up escaping with a victory that night by the same score. 

If McCaffrey doesn’t play, and the Vikings defense doesn’t need to respect the threat of Jordan Mason in the passing game like Minnesota would for CMC, the Vikings have a chance. That of course is also likely reliant on an untimely Purdy interception, which is a low stakes proposition.

Edge: 49ers

Verdict: 49ers but proceed with caution

Sure, the 49ers are 5.5-point road favorites on Sunday in Minnesota, per SportsLine Consensus Odds, but weird stuff seems to happen to them when they play on the road at the Vikings. The have lost seven games in a row on the Vikings’ turf with their last road win in Minnesota coming in a 20-17 Week 15 matchup that featured Steve Young (49ers) versus Rich Gannon (Vikings) as the starting quarterbacks that day. The seven-game losing streak in Minnesota is the 49ers’ longest active road losing streak for the franchise today. Wide receiver Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ 2023 first-round pick, registered career-highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (123) and receiving touchdowns (two) in Minnesota’s 22-17 Week 7 win in this matchup last year with Jefferson out with an injury.

San Francisco certainly has the matchups to prevail on Sunday and improve to 2-0, but a Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones revenge game with a healthy Justin Jefferson could potentially prove to be tougher than anticipated. Jones ran for 108 rushing yards on 18 carries for a six yards per carry average in the Green Bay Packers‘ 24-21 NFC Divisional Round loss at the 49ers in January. Minnesota has enough credible matchups, plus some voodoo (if you believe in superstitious things), when this matchup takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium. Sunday afternoon between these two squads should be top tier programming in the NFL’s 1 p.m. ET Week 2 slate.