NFL

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyes Bills and Chargers in Week 1, 2024

by
SaC Bot
September 7, 2024

USATSI

There are three divisional-rivalry games on the Week 1 NFL schedule, including Texans vs. Colts. These teams played for the AFC South championship in Week 18 of last season, with Houston pulling out a 23-19 win and going on to win a playoff game before bowing out against the Ravens in the divisional round. The Texans are three-point road favorites according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds via the SportsLine Consensus. Which side should you back in that game and which other teams should you target as you make your Week 1 NFL predictions? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. It’s another divisional matchup and both teams will be hoping to make up ground on the Chiefs in the AFC West after shoring up their coaching staff in the offseason. Antonio Pierce went from interim head coach to a permanent hire and the Chargers landed Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in four seasons with the 49ers and most recently won a national championship at Michigan.

We saw a decent sample size of the Raiders with Pierce, as he led them to a 5-4 record over the final nine games last season. However, Harbaugh’s ability to quickly change a culture has been well-documented and he’s got an elite quarterback at his disposal this time around in Justin Herbert. Los Angeles won 24-17 at home last season and the model is expecting more of the same, predicting that the Chargers cover in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Buffalo lost wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis from last year’s roster, but it still has star quarterback Josh Allen. His top targets this season are tight end Dalton Kincaid, wide receiver Khalil Shakir and wide receiver Keon Coleman, so he still has plenty of talent at his disposal.

The Bills should not have any trouble moving the ball on Sunday, as Arizona’s defense allowed the second-most points per game (26.8) in the NFL last season. The Cardinals also finished near the bottom of the league offensively, and it will be difficult for them to correct all of those issues against an elite Buffalo defense. Buffalo has covered the spread in seven of the last eight meetings between these teams, and the model has the Bills covering in almost 70% of the model’s latest simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.