Raiders QB prediction, preseason grades as coach Antonio Pierce hopes to name starter after 2nd preseason game

All offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders have waited around for one of their quarterbacks to “grab the bull by the horns” and earn the starting job. But time is running out before the start of the 2024 NFL season, which is why head coach Antonio Pierce is prepared to bring the competition to a close.

“The goal will be to hopefully make a decision after the [second preseason] game this Saturday,” Pierce told reporters, per the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “We have to get ready to play football. We have enough film and we’ll have two games to evaluate both quarterbacks to see how they’ll play.”

So who’s it going to be? Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew?

Let’s start by grading their recent 2024 preseason debut:

Week 1 preseason grades

Aidan O’Connell: B+

Drawing the start against the Minnesota Vikings, the second-year veteran went 7 of 9 for 76 yards, leading a 15-play scoring drive in his lone possession. He looked fairly comfortable in the pocket, showcasing his big 6-3 frame while delivering solid strikes over the top.

His pocket awareness (or lack thereof) seemingly contributed to a killer red-zone sack, however, forcing Las Vegas to settle for three out of the gate.

Gardner Minshew: A-

If O’Connell was solid, if unspectacular, as the shepherd of a methodical field-goal drive, then Minshew was the more sporadic but higher-upside alternative, showing nimble shifts in the pocket while hurling a handful of pretty downfield balls for big gains.

He completed just 50% of his throws (6 of 12) on three drives, but his best lofts were chain-movers, and the Raiders also scored 17 points on those series.

Predicting the Raiders’ decision

Game 2 of the preseason will be a factor, but without knowing what’ll occur there, here’s our current read on the situation: It’s fairly clear Minshew brings more dynamism to the position, not solely because of his flashy live-action Raiders debut but because he’s shown flair in 37 career starts around the NFL. You know what you’re getting with the journeyman: gutsy, if inconsistent, production. If the Raiders were basing their decision only on the eye test of their preseason opener, Minshew would probably be the guy.

Or would he? Pierce is a defensive-minded head coach, which doesn’t guarantee but probably means he’d prefer a quarterback with the smarts to control the ball. And O’Connell’s own preseason debut, though limited, was confirmation of his strengths as an old-school pocket passer; he’s not gonna scare you with his legs or dangerous downfield shots, but he’s got the rifle to chip away at a defense.

Couple that with the fact this even remains a competition — Minshew, age 28 with 37 career starts, versus O’Connell, age 25 with 10 — and it’s actually this writer’s opinion that O’Connell remains the favorite to open 2024 under center. If Minshew could arrive with more experience, signing for top-end backup money after nearly a full season starting for another AFC wild-card contender, and not already be cemented as the Week 1 starter, then it stands to reason Las Vegas is best-suited — and more likely — to give the younger O’Connell a full regular-season audition for the first-team job.

Why start with Minshew and turn back to the incumbent rather than the other way around, after all? Minshew has done some of his best work coming off the bench, which means he’s primed to serve that relief-pitcher role in Las Vegas, waiting in the wings in the event his younger counterpart isn’t fit to remain the No. 1. In the bigger picture, remember, Pierce and Co. are determined to identify their quarterback of both the present and future, so if they have a chance to assess O’Connell in that regard, they surely will.