NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports betting, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can’t really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.
With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I’ll revisit these in August before the season begins, but we’ll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they’re released:
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let’s get to it.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
- Over 10.5 (+105) / Under 10.5 (-125)
There’s no way around midseason last year you could have possibly predicted the Eagles win total under would hit, not with Philly sitting at 10-1 after a late November overtime win over the Bills. But the Eagles cratered to a 1-5 finish, eventually finishing the season at 11-6. They’re back with another robust win total ahead of 2024, but it’s reasonable to be concerned about this team yet again. For one, they vastly overperformed their expected wins (8.5) and also went 7-3 in one-score games. I think the addition of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator will solve a lot of issues on that side of the ball, but I’m not positive Kellen Moore is a big upgrade for the Eagles. Brian Johnson was clearly in over his head, but the Cowboys‘ (after firing Moore) improvement and Chargers‘ struggles should cause some concerns in Philly. Then there’s the loss of Jason Kelce on the offensive side and Fletcher Cox on the defensive side. Those are two of the biggest leaders and best players on the team. Howie Roseman set up the succession strategy well with Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis/Jalen Carter, but there could be a drop-off, especially early on. Philly profiles like a playoff team, but I’m not convinced it’ll steam roll to 11-plus wins with a difficult schedule and all the changes it’s undergone.
Pick: Eagles under 10.5 (-125)
Dallas Cowboys
- Over 10.5 (+115) / Under 10.5 (-135)
No one enters this season under more pressure than Mike McCarthy, which is wild considering the Cowboys head coach is coming off a third-consecutive 12-win season. Such is life when you work for Jerry Jones. The Cowboys stole the division from Philly late last year, but you can easily argue Dallas was the better team for much of the season. The Cowboys actually underperformed their expected win total and finished 3-2 in one-score games. Dak Prescott had maybe the best season of his career with McCarthy calling plays, and CeeDee Lamb was a force of nature down the stretch. Dan Quinn is gone now, which is a big concern, because the defense has been elite after a disastrous start to McCarthy’s run in Dallas with Mike Nolan. Mike Zimmer’s in town now, which could certainly prevent a huge drop-off. The AFC North and NFC South are on the docket this year, with Dallas also drawing matchups against the Lions, 49ers and Texans. It’s a tough schedule for Dallas, and a slow start might ratchet up the pressure on everyone in Dallas, especially if the Stars and/or Mavs win a title in the next few weeks. McCarthy might be a lame duck, but Dak, Lamb and Micah Parsons are superstars playing for contracts. I think the Cowboys respond with a big regular season. The postseason is the bigger problem anyway, but it doesn’t matter for win totals.
Pick: Cowboys over 10.5 (+115)
New York Giants
- Over 6.5 (+115) / Under 6.5 (-135)
Speaking of pressure, there could be plenty on the Giants in 2024 as well. New York declined to select a quarterback in the draft, leaving Daniel Jones and Drew Lock to battle it out for the starting role this offseason. Jones is the favorite to win, but I wouldn’t rule out Lock finding a way to steal things. Malik Nabers is a massive add for a team that hasn’t had a legitimate elite pass catcher since Odell Beckham Jr.’s peak. The Colts, Seahawks and Vikings are a tough third-place pull in terms of division crossover, and the aforementioned schedule is going to be tough. The Giants profiled as a 4.5-win team last year, so they overperformed expectations for the second straight year. Giants fans were frustrated last year but Brian Daboll really does get more out of less. The defensive line is outrageous with the addition of Brian Burns — I think they could generate enough pressure to actually produce a top shelf unit if everything breaks right. The Giants just need the offense to be league average and they could be a decent team. I just couldn’t even think about taking this over without knowing who the QB is and seeing how things look.
Lean: Giants over 6.5 (+115)
Washington Commanders
Over 6.5 (-120) / Under 6.5 (+100)
Washington is one of the most interesting teams to project this year. There’s a new coach in Dan Quinn and a new quarterback in Jayden Daniels. The former had a lot of success in Atlanta; people just remember the Super Bowl meltdown. I expect the defense to be improved from jump street. Offensively, I have no idea what to expect — Kliff Kingsbury coaching up Daniels makes sense, but Kingsbury’s chops as an OC can be called into question and the Commanders offensive line is a major red flag. If the OL holds up, there’s real potential here, though, thanks to the presence of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson plus the addition of Austin Ekeler, Luke McCaffrey and tight end Ben Sinnott. The Titans, Bears and Cardinals is a nice last-place schedule pull, and if Daniels continues to develop the way he did at LSU, there’s a real chance the offense could be dynamic. I don’t know if the Commanders are a fringe playoff team or not, but I think there are 7-plus wins on the schedule with an upgraded coaching staff.
Lean: Commanders over 6.5 (-120)
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Author: Will Brinson
May 28, 2024 | 11:07 am
