With the conclusion of the Senior Bowl, college all-star game season is in the rearview, the NFL combine is just a few weeks away, and in fact, as I write this, we’re 81 days from the 2024 NFL Draft. Which means we’re no more than 81 days from learning, for the second straight year, what the Bears will do with the first-overall pick, and exactly how many quarterbacks end up going in the top 10 — and in the first-round altogether.
Put another way, there’s a long way to go and much to be sorted. For now, though, it’s my latest top-50 Big Board, post-Senior Bowl edition.
Let’s get to it.
1. Caleb Williams, QB, Southern California
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
5. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Caleb Williams remains QB1 because he’s a truly special talent. His 2023 season had its ebbs and flows, but he consistently elevated that USC offense, despite a suspect offensive line and a defense that struggled to stop anyone. As I’ve said for months, the biggest issue with Williams has little to do with his football-playing ability, but how involved his father might be in his professional future. Because on the field, he’s the best quarterback in this class and, as we sit here, it’s not particularly close. (That’s not to say we could all be having a different conversation in a few years; 12 months ago, had Williams been eligible, he would’ve been QB1 despite C.J. Stroud also being in the draft class.)
I’m higher on Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt than others, but the thinking is that a) Fashanu just turned 21 and he’s one of the best athletes in the entire class. He had an uneven season at times for Penn State, but he possesses special physical gifts. Alt, meanwhile, isn’t the athlete that Fashanu is, but he’s a better technician at this point in his journey, and his 2023 tape proved that he’s more than capable of playing left tackle in the NFL.
Brock Bowers rounds out the top 5 because he’s a truly special talent, and while he isn’t the athlete Kyle Pitts was coming out of Florida, he’s a much better tight end. Still, the reality is that Bowers may end up getting drafted somewhere in the second half of the first round because that’s what recent history tells us. I’ll repeat what I wrote back on Dec. 4, in my mock draft 4.0: “In the last 20 years, 19 tight ends have gone in the first round. Five of those were selected in the top 10 (Eric Ebron, 10th overall in 2014; T.J. Hockenson, 8th overall in 2019; Kellen Winslow II and Vernon Davis, 6th overall in 2004 and 2006; and Kyle Pitts, 4th overall in 2021). The other 14 were drafted between No. 19 and No. 32.”
But with the way Sam LaPorta, and even Luke Musgrave played when he was healthy, there could be a renewed focus on the tight end position, which means that perhaps Bowers does go top 10.
6. Dallas Turner, ED, Alabama
7. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
8. Jayden Daniels, QB, Louisiana State
9. Jared Verse, ED, Florida State
10. Malik Nabers, WR, Louisiana State
Two quarterbacks — Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels — are my No. 7 and No. 8 players, and I’m still not sure Daniels won’t end up as my QB2. I made the point back on Dec. 22 on the With the First Pick Podcast, with my co-host, Rick Spielman:
And a few weeks later, Shrine Bowl Director Eric Galko talked about how far Daniels has come since transferring from Arizona State.
Meanwhile, Malik Nabers rounds out the top 10 though it wouldn’t surprise me if he went higher than this. He’s a terror at all three levels, is a yards-after-catch machine, and while he was the beneficiary of playing with Jayden Daniels, that relationship was a two-way street because Nabers made life immeasurably easier for his quarterback too.
11. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
12. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
13. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
14. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
15. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
16. Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
17. Laiatu Latu, ED, UCLA
18. JC Latham, OT, Alabama
19. Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas
20. Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon
Quinyon Mitchell, Taliese Fuaga, Laiatu Latu and Jackson Powers-Johnson all took part in the Senior Bowl, and all improved their draft stock, as a result. But none more than Mitchell, who went from a solid first-rounder to CB1 with as breezy a dominating practice performance as you’ll ever see from a defensive back, both in 1-on-1 and team drills. Fuaga, Latue and Powers-Johnson were all dominant in their respective 1-on-1 and team drills, and it speaks to the benefits of coming to an all-star game and balling out. Not only can you remove some (and maybe most) lingering doubts from evaluators, you also show that you’re eager to compete.
21. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
22. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
23. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
24. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
25. Troy Fautanu, OG, Washington
26. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
27. Darius Robinson, ED, Missouri
28. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
29. Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
30. Graham Barton, OG, Duke
31. Bralen Trice, ED, Washington
32. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Louisiana State
33. Chop Robinson, ED, Penn State
34. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
35. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
I remain high on Michael Penix Jr., even if there are mixed reviews around the league on where he’s ultimately drafted. I’ve talked to teams that like him in Round 1, and others who like him in Round 3. Here’s where I begin the conversation: How did he play in the fall? Because Penix was clinical for much of the season, was the best deep-ball thrower in college football, and routinely wore out defenses. Yes, he played behind one of the best offensive lines, and yes, he was throwing to three receivers who will likely be top-100 picks, but you could’ve said the same thing about Joe Burrow coming out of LSU. The point: Yes, there are holes in Penix Jr.’s game, and he does have an injury history, but you don’t have to squint to find the good — it’s staring you in the face, week in and week out. Put another way: if he was in the 2022 QB class, the one that included only one first-round pick, Kenny Pickett, Penix Jr. is QB1 by a large margin.
To continue the Senior Bowl theme, Tyler Guyton, Darius Robinson, Patrick Paul and Xavier Legette, all came to mobile, all, to varying degrees, were dominant, and all helped themselves with a solid week of practice. This offensive line class is deeper than a deep 2023 group, and Robinson, who flashed on tape in the fall, backed it up during practices, when he was just about unblockable.
36. Ja’lynn Polk, WR, Washington
37. Chris Braswell, ED, Alabama
38. Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
39. Christian Jones, OT, Texas
40. Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington
41. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
42. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
43. Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson
44. DeWayne Carter, DL, Duke
45. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
46. Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
47. McKinnley Jackson, DL, Texas A&M
48. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
49. Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
50. Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami
Jordan Morgan and Christian Jones could end up going higher than this — again, no surprise, both were at the Senior Bowl and both availed themselves nicely — in part because you can never have enough good offensive linemen, but also because both players reinforced in Mobile what we all saw on tape in the fall.
Bo Nix comes in at 41, and I still can’t get a feel on where he might go in the actual draft. But this much is certain: he’s somehow underrated despite two strong seasons at Oregon. He’s a good athlete, has a good arm, makes good decisions, continues to get better, and has a ton of experience. I don’t think he’s a Year 1 starter in the NFL, but I also didn’t think Stroud would do the things he did in Houston last fall.
Finally, Ladd McConkey is one of my favorite players in this class. He couldn’t be covered during 1-on-1 drills at the Senior Bowl, and that was pretty much the case during the season at Georgia, too. I don’t think you can draft him too early, and I’ll be curious to see how that perception changes if he blows the doors off the combine.
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Author: Ryan Wilson
February 5, 2024 | 2:06 pm
