What should Dolphins do with Tua Tagovailoa? Predicting how offseason unfolds for Miami QB

It’s not fair that one game can define how you view an entire season, but that’s what likely will happen with the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins finished the regular season with the No. 1 offense in the league (401.3 yards per game) and No. 2 scoring offense (29.2 points per game), but fans aren’t feeling great about the future following the 26-7 Super Wild Card Weekend loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday night.

The Dolphins underachieving against good teams was a common theme all year. Miami went 1-5 vs. eventual playoff teams in the regular season, and 10-1 vs. teams that did not make the playoffs. If you count the most-recent Chiefs loss, Miami went 1-6 vs. playoff teams, and finished with a -110 point differential in those games. The monster victories over teams like the Denver Broncos or New York Jets don’t seem as great when you’re disappearing against teams that are half-decent. 

Miami also crumbled down the stretch. Over the final four games of the 2023 campaign, the Dolphins scored 20-plus points just one time, and scored one touchdown on their final 16 offensive possessions. There’s plenty of blame to go around, but the play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is and will continue to be a major storyline.

Tagovailoa had a great year overall. He finished the regular season as a top seven favorite to win NFL MVP, and helped guide the Dolphins to their first 11-win season since 2008. The 25-year-old led the NFL in passing yards with 4,624, was tied for fifth in passing touchdowns with 29, finished third in completion percentage (69.3%) and picked up 222 first downs through the air, which was tied for the second-most in the NFL. But, he was not dominant consistently or vs. everyone.

Against Kansas City on Saturday night, Tagovailoa completed 20 of 39 passes for 199 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while Miami recorded just 264 yards of total offense. Tagovailoa froze in what was the fourth-coldest game in NFL history, as one of the best offenses during the regular season didn’t even get to the red zone. Even Tagovailoa’s lone touchdown pass wasn’t a thing of beauty.

Tagovailoa entered this week having lost each of the five coldest starts of his career. It’s a narrative that has been around for a couple years now. Tagovailoa is 6-14 in games under 70 degrees, and 23-4 in games of 70 or more degrees. Is Miami just doomed to lose every road playoff game it will play in the future that’s not in a warm climate or indoors?

This offseason will be an interesting one for Miami. Tagovailoa is under contract for one more year thanks to Miami picking up his fifth-year option, which is fully guaranteed. So, sorry to those overly outraged fans who are hoping Tagovailoa will be cut this offseason. That’s not happening. Instead, Tagovailoa’s representation will likely ramp up talks on a potential extension.

Spotrac’s market value tool predicts Tagovailoa is in line to sign a six-year, $302,781,786 extension that carries an AAV of $50.46M. That hypothetical contract would place Tagovailoa over Russell Wilson as the fifth-highest paid quarterback in the NFL. Is Miami comfortable locking in Tagovailoa on a deal near $50M per year? Is Miami even sold on Tagovailoa as its future quarterback? These are questions general manager Chris Grier and the front office will have to ponder in the coming months. There are benefits to locking down the quarterback you’re sold on as soon as possible, but Tagovailoa’s situation is not like the ones of Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert. 

Some will look at how the 2023 season ended and be completely sold that Tagovailoa cannot take the Dolphins where they want to go. I don’t know if we can say that definitively. I think we can say Tagovailoa is not someone like a Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson who can shoulder the load by themselves offensively, and will teams to victories. I also think we can say Tagovailoa is not the first quarterback you’re choosing in a game played in freezing conditions. 

If I had to guess what happens next, it’s that the Dolphins do not sign Tagovailoa to an extension, and handle the upcoming season as a true “prove-it” campaign. Tagovailoa has made strides each year under Mike McDaniel. What’s that next step? Performing well against your best competition, and winning postseason games.