The NFL playoffs are finally here, and it’s time to find out who is the best of the best. The journey began on Saturday with what we affectionately call “Super Wild Card Weekend.” C.J. Stroud takes on Joe Flacco, Tyreek Hill returns to Kansas City, Mike McCarthy hosts his former team while Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff face off against their former clubs in what is sure to be a memorable Motor City showdown.
Let’s get ahead of ourselves before any postseason football is actually played and attempt to predict the entire NFL playoff bracket. Are the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers destined to meet in Vegas as the NFL script writers foretold in their color scheme? Could Patrick Mahomes lead a Kansas City Chiefs rebound and get back to the Big Game? Maybe the Buffalo Bills shock the world and get to Vegas. Let’s explore.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Super Wild Card Weekend
(5) Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
Shoutout to the Texans, who completed a worst-to-first turnaround by winning the AFC South after finishing in last place in 2022. Stroud, who will win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, led the league in passing yards per game (273.9), and is first in EPA/dropback vs. zone coverage this season. Sounds great, except the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (41%).
The Browns defense could help Cleveland make a legitimate run. They allowed the fewest yards per game (270.0) since the 2014 Seattle Seahawks, who made the Super Bowl. Cleveland had the highest three-and-out percentage (48.6%) since the 2005 Tennessee Titans, the fewest yards per drive allowed (20.7) since the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers and the fewest first downs allowed per game (14.9) since the 2009 New York Jets. This defense can contain Stroud and Nico Collins.
As for the Browns offense, Texans fans likely still have nightmares about what Flacco and Amari Cooper did to them earlier this year. In a dominant victory, Flacco completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while Cooper caught 11 passes for a franchise-record 265 yards and two touchdowns, and became the second player in NFL history to record a 200-yard receiving game for three different teams.
Flacco is tied with Tom Brady for the most road playoff wins by a starting quarterback in NFL history with seven. He has also covered the spread in seven straight playoff starts, which is tied for the longest streak by a quarterback in the past 25 seasons. Give me the Browns.
The pick: Browns -2.5
Projected score: Browns 27-23
(6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock)
The Chiefs have not looked great as of late, I’m aware. But it’s not like the Dolphins have been great either. The No. 1 offense in the league hasn’t scored more than 22 points in three straight games now. This weekend, the Dolphins have to travel to a hostile environment, in primetime, against the No. 2 defense in the league … and it’s going to be COLD.
Weather.com says Saturday in Kansas City will feature conditions that include a high of 8 degrees, and a low of -6 degrees. At kickoff, the temperature is expected to be right around five degrees with a wind chill of -10, according to the National Weather Service. The Dolphins have lost 10 straight games when the kickoff temp is below 40 degrees, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa has lost the five coldest starts of his career, and he’s 6-13 in games under 70 degrees.
Throw in the fact that the Dolphins are dealing with numerous injuries on defense, and I’ll take the Chiefs.
The pick: Chiefs -4.5
Projected score: Chiefs 23-17
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The trends in this matchup are worrisome. The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS all-time vs. the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium despite being underdogs in all four matchups, Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS in his six playoff starts while Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four home playoff games.
Jordan Love has been playing some good ball, but the Packers bring in the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Bills, with an average age of 25 years, 214 days. The Cowboys have famously been dominant at home this season. Dallas is a perfect 8-0, and six of those victories have come by 20+ points. The Cowboys have a chance to change the narrative when it comes to their recent postseason failures, and they know this. Prescott and Co. begin the 2023 postseason with a statement victory.
The pick: Cowboys -7.5
Projected score: Cowboys 30-20
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills (-10)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers have had a fun run with Mason Rudolph, and Najee Harris has been on quite a hot streak, having registered back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for the first time in his career. However, not having T.J. Watt on defense is certainly going to hurt. The Steelers are 1-10 when Watt doesn’t play. Another thing working against the Steelers is that they are double-digit underdogs. Double-digit underdogs in the wild card round are 0-11 straight up all-time, and 2-9 against the spread.
This is another matchup that is expected to feature notable weather with high winds. That means we are in for a lot of running. The Bills are going to win this game in my opinion, but I think I’ll go against the trend and take the Steelers to lose by less than double digits.
The pick: Steelers +10
Projected score: Bills 17-10
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit Lions (-3)
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
This is the game of the weekend in my opinion. Stafford returns home, while Goff also gets to face off against his former team. I see this matchup as one that features two explosive offenses, but two defenses that are very inconsistent. The Lions pass defense ranks sixth-worst in the league, and the scoring defense is bottom 10. As for the Rams, well, they’ve allowed seven passing touchdowns on throws 20+ air yards down the field over the last five games, which ranks most in the NFL.
The Lions are better on paper, but they’ve struggled at home. Detroit fans certainly want to forget what happened on Thanksgiving. I lean towards Stafford and the Rams in an upset.
The Lions have a top five offense in total yards and points, but the Rams offense is pretty good too. When they have their “big four” on the field, with Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, they average 6.8 yards per play. L.A. is 6-2 with those four players on the field, and they average 28.5 points per game and 398.9 total yards per game. That foursome could find big success against the Lions defense.
The pick: Rams +3
Projected score: Rams 41-35 in OT
(5) Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Buccaneers are 5-1 since the start of December, while the Eagles are 1-5. It’s tough to feel good about Philly right now. The Eagles are the sixth team to make the playoffs after going 1-5 or worse in the final six games of the season. They have a +5 point differential this year, which is the fifth-worst all-time by an 11-win team. The offense has looked disjointed, A.J. Brown is dealing with a knee injury, DeVonta Smith missed last week due to an ankle injury and the defense has not been as dominant as they were in 2022. Philly finished with the third-worst scoring defense in the league with 25.2 points surrendered per game.
I don’t see the Buccaneers as legitimate contenders, and Baker Mayfield is dealing with a ribs injury that clearly affected him in the regular-season finale. But I do have faith Mayfield and Mike Evans plus the rest of this passing attack can find success against Philly’s secondary. The Eagles have failed to cover in six straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. I’m going to have to take the Buccaneers at home.
The pick: Buccaneers +3
Projected score: Buccaneers 26-20
Divisional round
No. 5 Cleveland Browns at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
What a game this was back in Week 10, where Deshaun Watson and the Browns scored 16 unanswered points to win in Baltimore, 33-31. These are two of the best defenses in the league, so it really comes down to which offense will be more effective.
If I’m John Harbaugh, I’m reminding my team about the 2019 season this entire bye week. It’s deja vu. The Ravens won the AFC North, earned the No. 1 seed in the conference and Lamar Jackson won MVP. What happened that year? Baltimore was quickly ousted from the postseason by that year’s Cinderella team, the Titans. The Ravens won’t let that happen again.
Projected score: Ravens 24-21
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Another Chiefs-Bills postseason matchup. Yep. We are back. After a year off in 2022, we resume this playoff rivalry. I think this matchup is very likely. These two teams faced off just a month ago, with the Bills escaping Arrowhead with a three-point win thanks to Kadarius Toney lining up offsides.
Winning in Buffalo isn’t impossible. We saw Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals embarrass the Bills in the snow last year. The thing is, I’m still curious if the Chiefs offense can return to form in the playoffs. The weather helped them out in Kansas City in Super Wild Card Weekend. Can the Chiefs put up more points than Buffalo in Buffalo?
The Bills have won six straight games by this point, which is the longest streak in the NFL. They are the first team since seeding began in 1975 to earn a top two seed after being .500 or worse with five or fewer games remaining. Is this a team of destiny thing? Buffalo has put together a couple inspired performances at home, such as the 32-6 win over the Jets after Ken Dorsey was fired, or the 31-10 beatdown of the Cowboys that really opened the eyes of the NFL world. I’ll lean towards the Bills, but could end up flipping next week.
Projected score: Bills 24-23
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams vs. No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
I think this could be a close game. When these two teams faced off in Week 2, the 49ers forced two second-half turnovers to break a tie game, and Sean McVay kicked a meaningless field goal to cover the spread for us, losing 30-23. Brock Purdy threw for 206 yards and zero touchdowns, while Stafford attempted a whopping 55 passes for 307 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.
Kyle Shanahan is 10-5 vs. Sean McVay, but the last loss came in the regular-season finale — an instant classic featuring Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz at quarterback. San Francisco is undoubtedly the better team, so I’ll take the 49ers to advance.
Projected score: 49ers 31-24
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys
It was a nice run for the Buccaneers, who upset the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, but the No. 23-ranked defense won’t be able to stop Dallas in AT&T Stadium.
Projected score: Cowboys 24-18
Championship weekend
No. 2 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
The last time these two teams played was last year in rainy Baltimore. The Bills scored points in all four quarters, and overcame a 17-point deficit to defeat the Ravens, 23-20, thanks to a Jordan Poyer interception at the goal line, and then a 21-yard Tyler Bass game-winning field goal. Jackson threw for 144 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and led Baltimore in rushing with 73 yards. Allen scored two total touchdowns, and also led his team in rushing with 70 yards. I bet we could see both quarterbacks run a decent amount in this matchup, but there is one big difference between last year’s Ravens team and this year’s Ravens team, and that’s offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
The Ravens finished this season with the best point differential vs. winning teams in NFL HISTORY (+178). They finished the year ranked sixth in total offense, and fourth in scoring offense. To bring up the defense again, Baltimore also became the first team in NFL history to lead the league in scoring defense, sacks and takeaways. Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Projected score: Ravens 27-17
No. 2 Dallas Cowboys at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
It’s a reoccurring nightmare for Prescott. The Cowboys have lost three straight to the 49ers, with two of those losses coming in the playoffs back-to-back years, and the other in the form of a 42-10 beatdown back in Week 5. The 49ers offense had no problem against the Cowboys defense, and the Cowboys offense couldn’t do anything against the 49ers defense. Prescott threw for 153 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, while Purdy threw for 252 yards and four touchdowns. I’m not taking the Cowboys to upset the 49ers now, but congrats to Jerry Jones for his first NFC Championship appearance since 1995.
Projected score: 49ers 31-23
Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+)
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
A No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed Super Bowl? Sorry I couldn’t make the bracket more interesting, but I do truly feel like these are the two best teams in the NFL. Maybe the Browns surprise the Ravens for the second time this season in the divisional round, maybe an unfortunate injury derails San Francisco’s postseason run for the second straight year. Expect the unexpected.
I guess that Christmas night matchup was indeed a Super Bowl preview. The Ravens were so successful in that 33-19 victory over the 49ers because the defense forced turnovers and the offense scored consistently. Baltimore forced three interceptions in the first half and scored on four of five first-half possessions — a streak that was extended to seven straight scoring drives in the third quarter. It was dominant, and pretty surprising to see against one of the best defenses in the league.
I will tell you this, though. The 49ers love these revenge games. Remember what they did to the Eagles earlier this year? Even though they were on the road in a hostile environment against a hot team? I mean, San Francisco may have broken Philly with that 42-19 win. My guess is that the 49ers don’t lose two straight to the Ravens.
Projected score: 49ers 27-24
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Author: Jordan Dajani
January 14, 2024 | 9:56 am
