Patriots vs. Broncos odds, spread, time: 2023 Christmas Eve NFL picks, prediction, bets by model on 32-21 roll

The Christmas Eve NFL schedule closes out with a Week 16 matchup between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. The Broncos (7-7) saw their playoff hopes take a hit with a 42-17 loss to the Lions last week, but they have one of the softest schedules in the league over the final three weeks. It starts with the Week 16 NFL matchup with the Patriots (3-11), the lowest scoring team in the league. New England (3-11) is in the midst of its worst season since Bill Belichick arrived. The Patriots have lost six of their past seven games, including last Sunday’s 27-17 home setback to the Chiefs.

Sunday night’s kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Denver’s Empower Field at Mile High. Denver is a seven-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds, while the over-under is 35.5. Before making any Broncos vs. Patriots picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Broncos 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Broncos vs. Patriots:

• Patriots vs. Broncos spread: Denver -7
• Patriots vs. Broncos over/under: 35.5 points
• Patriots vs. Broncos money line: New England +281, Denver -356
• NE: Patriots are 11-12-1 ATS on the road over the past three seasons
• DEN: Broncos are 6-11 ATS as home favorites since the 2021 season
• Patriots vs. Broncos picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Patriots vs. Broncos streaming: fubo (try for free) 

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver had a rough week against the Lions, but that was on the road, and New England is far from a playoff-caliber team. The Patriots average just 13.3 points per game and have scored less than 20 in 11 of their 14 games. Russell Wilson threw for more than 220 yards for a second straight game last week and has 24 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The Patriots are 29th in the NFL in both takeaways (14) and sacks (29) and allow 21.4 points per game (16th).   

Wilson is 3-0 in his career regular-season matchups with the Patriots, throwing 11 TD passes and one interception. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy combined for 145 receiving yards against the Lions, and Sutton has 770 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. The Broncos defense was exploited by a talented Lions team, but the unit allowed just 15.6 points per game from Weeks 7-14. The Broncos were plus-10 in turnover margin over that span, best in the NFL. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Patriots can cover

Bill Belichick will do anything he can to beat Sean Payton, a fellow Bill Parcells disciple. The coach also won’t allow his team to give up on this lost season, and the shoddy Denver defense should give the Pats a chance. The Broncos have the NFL’s second-worst defense (382.4 yards per game), are last against the run (146.9) and give up 25.1 points per game (30th). New England’s defense is second against the run (84.9), so the Patriots will make Wilson beat them.   

The Patriots beat the Steelers 21-18 in Pittsburgh two weeks ago as Bailey Zappe took control. The offense has rallied around the new starter, who threw for 240 yards and three TDs against the Steelers. He had 141 yards in the first half last week before the Chiefs clamped down. Ezekiel Elliott, who leads NFL running backs with catches for 133 yards the past three weeks, could play a big role. The Broncos have won six of the past eight meetings between the teams. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Patriots vs. Broncos picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, projecting 36 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

So who wins Patriots vs. Broncos on Christmas Eve, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Patriots spread to back, all from the model on a 178-129 roll on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.