T.J. Watt was pretty clear when asked to outline his goals for the 2023 season. Just before Pittsburgh headed to training camp, Watt detailed what he wanted to accomplish more than anything during his seventh season.
“I’ve played in three playoff games and haven’t won a single one, so that’s a big issue,” Watt told CBS Sports at the time. “That’s probably goal No. 1 is just to get into the playoffs and win a playoff game and just go from there.
“I’m not about the individual goals anymore. I’ve set myself up nice where I’ve been having a good career but it doesn’t matter if you’re not winning games when they matter most. I think that’s objective No. 1, for sure.”
For a while, it appeared that Watt would get a chance at getting that coveted first playoff win. But after a 7-4 start, the Steelers have lost three straight games entering Saturday’s home game against the Bengals. While they are still technically in the playoff hunt, the Steelers haven’t looked anything like a team with postseason aspirations in recent weeks. It’s legitimate to wonder whether or not the 2023 Steelers will win another game.
Pittsburgh’s current playoff odds paint a similarly bleak picture. Those odds are currently at 4.9%, according to CBS Sports Research. Pittsburgh’s expected win total is just over 8, which is lower than Caesars Sportsbook’s preseason over/under projection of 8.5 wins.
The Steelers are currently 10th in the AFC standings. They’ll have to pass Indianapolis (8-6), Houston (8-6) and Buffalo (8-6) over the season’s last three weeks in order to secure a playoff spot. Saturday’s opponent, Cincinnati, is currently holding on to the AFC’s sixth spot.
So, can the Steelers actually make the playoffs? Let’s find out by breaking down the remaining schedules of the teams currently ahead of them as well as looking at Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule. We’ll also detail the three things the Steelers need to do over the next three weeks.
Remaining strength of schedule: AFC seeds 7-9
Steelers remaining schedule
Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18, so one of those teams will suffer a seventh loss. Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, though, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to finish with a better record than both squads.
That makes this weekend a crucial one, with the Colts heading to Atlanta and the Texans hosting the Browns (yes, Steelers fans will have to root for longtime rival Cleveland this weekend). The Falcons are better than their record would suggest (especially on defense), so the Colts also have their work cut out for them.
Given their upcoming schedules, it’s conceivable that the Steelers could finish above both teams if they win out. Buffalo, however, looks like a runaway train after spending most of the season’s first 10 weeks stuck in neutral. Winners of three of their last four games, the Bills have two extremely winnable games before finishing the season against a Dolphins team that they defeated by 28 points way back in Week 4.
By virtue of a better division record, the Steelers own the tiebreaker over the Bills should both teams finish with the same record. But similar to Houston and Indianapolis, that would likely require the Bills to lose at least once and the Steelers to run the table.
Pittsburgh can also catch Cincinnati; they’ll be ahead of the Bengals in the standings if they defeat them on Saturday. To do that, the Steelers will need to slow down a Bengals offense that has received inspired play in recent weeks from Jake Browning, who has put up Joe Burrow-like numbers over the past three weeks.
If the Steelers defeat the Bengals, they’ll then have to defeat Seattle and Baltimore on the road. The Seahawks, who shocked the Eagles on Monday night, have talented players, especially on offense with running back Kenneth Walker III and wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Ravens may not have anything to play for in Week 18; they currently have a one-game lead over Miami in the race to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed. But that doesn’t mean that the Ravens will be an easy win if they rest some players. Their backup quarterback, Tyler Huntley, was named to the Pro Bowl last season.
How can the Steelers run the table? It’s not going to be easy, especially with Kenny Pickett still out and with the Steelers defense dealing with more injuries than the Tune Squad in the original “Space Jam.” But here are three things they can do to increase their odds at snapping their losing streak.
1. Run, run and run some more
Pittsburgh recently averaged 165.2 rushing yards per game over a five-game span. It’s imperative that the Steelers stay committed to the running game over the next three weeks, starting with Saturday’s game against the Bengals.
Najee Harris ran for 99 yards and a score on 15 carries the last time the Steelers faced a Bengals defense that isn’t terribly good against the run. Cincinnati’s defense will likely be more susceptible against the run with D.J. Reader out for the season after getting hurt against the Vikings.
Harris and Jaylen Warren need to be vocal point of the offense moving forward. Warren has been the Steelers’ best offensive player this season with nearly 1,000 all-purpose yards and a 5.5 yards-per-carry average. Even if they fall behind, Pittsburgh needs to stick with the run while allowing the chips to fall where they may. Straying away from the run (which has happened in recent weeks) will only lead to bad things.
2. Ask your QB to not lose the game
This is basically what the Steelers asked Mason Rudolph to do in 2019 when he replaced an injured Ben Roethlisberger two weeks into the season. Rudolph went 5-3 as a starter that season despite suffering a nasty concussion and getting struck in the head by his own helmet in a loss to Cleveland.
Rudolph is capable of doing this assuming his teammates don’t sabotage him by running route routes, missing blocking assignments and committing unnecessary penalties.
Fortunately, Rudolph is a six-year veteran within the Steelers’ organization. He’s been there long enough where he has a keen understanding of the throws he’s comfortable with and, just as importantly, the ones he’s not. Yes, Rudolph will take some deep shots, and that’s fine, as long as he’s mostly tasked with taking care of the ball while throwing high percentage passes.
Unfortunately, this will likely lead to more temper tantrums from George Pickens, who checks out more than Peter Gibbons in “Office Space.” Rudolph, though, shouldn’t worry about that and instead should focus on getting the ball to players who stay in the game, both mentally and physically.
3. Steelers defensive stars need to play like stars
Even with Minkah Fitzpatrick out, the Steelers have three potential future Hall of Fame players on defense in Watt, Patrick Peterson and Cam Heyward. They also have Alex Highsmith, who received a hefty extension this offseason after recording a career-high 14.5 sacks a season ago. This quartet needs to play at an almost superhuman level over the next three weeks to give the Steelers a better shot at making the playoffs.
That’s obviously way easier said than done. Peterson is being stretched extremely thin while tying to make up for injuries in the secondary. Watt, Heyward and Highsmith have been playing through injuries that likely impacted their collective effectiveness in recent weeks.
That all might be true, but the fact remains that the Steelers need each of their defensive stars to play their best ball over the next three weeks. NFL Films icon John Facenda once said, “Great teams aren’t always great. They’re just great when they have to be.” The same can be said of great players.
Watt, especially, can significantly add to his legacy as a player over season’s final weeks. Watt may not get his coveted playoff win this season, but he can leave a mark on this season by playing his best football now while following in the footsteps of Joe Greene and other Steelers legends that put the team on their proverbial shoulders.
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Author: Bryan DeArdo
December 19, 2023 | 2:22 pm
