NFL Week 16 features two potential Super Bowl previews in first matchups of its kind since 1980

We’re all being treated to not one, but two potential Super Bowl previews in Week 16 when the Cowboys take on the Dolphins and the 49ers host the Ravens. Both star-studded affairs have huge playoff seed and MVP implications.

These are the top four teams in scoring offense and points differential this season. It’s the first time since 1980 that the top four teams in points differential all meet this late into a season. If we’re lucky, one of them will end up being a Super Bowl preview. There’s only been one instance of teams meeting this late into a season, then playing in the Super Bowl. The Patriots beat the Giants 38-35 in Week 17 of 2007 before New York ended their undefeated season in the Super Bowl.

Among the intrigue in these games:

• Both games are Super Bowl rematches and could be Super Bowl previews
• All four teams are either currently the No. 1 seed in their conference or within a game.
• It’s a matchup of the top two scoring offenses (Cowboys-Dolphins) and top two scoring defenses (Ravens-49ers)
• Collectively, these game features six of the top nine players in NFL MVP odds (Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill)

Here are a few things to specifically look forward to in each game. 

Cowboys at Dolphins

Storyline to watch: who is for real?

I’m calling this the Cupcake Bowl because most of us out there are still wondering, are these teams legit contenders? The Cowboys and Dolphins are a combined 1-6 vs. above .500 teams this year and 19-2 in all other games. It’s the first matchup in NFL history between teams with at least 20 combined wins but one or fewer vs. above .500 teams. Neither team has made a conference championship game in roughly three decades, so forgive me for this stance: I’ll believe it when we see it. 

Why it matters: division title races

The Dolphins have played the easiest schedule in the NFL up to this point in terms of opponent record but have the hardest schedule in the last three weeks with games against the 10-4 Cowboys, 11-3 Ravens and 8-6 Bills. If they lose this game they could find themselves in a do-or-die game to win the AFC East in Week 18 against Josh Allen and the Bills, who have their number.

Like Miami, Dallas is also playing for both their division title and an outside shot at a one seed should the 49ers falter down the stretch. If the last two weeks are any indication, Dallas needs as many home playoff games as possible. They just lost by 21 in Buffalo after beating the Eagles by 20 at home. Dallas is 3-4 on the road this season and 7-0 at home. 

Milestone watch: Tyreek Hill 2K yards

Tyreek Hill can still reach 2,000 receiving yards with a heroic final three games despite missing his first game of the season in Week 15. He needs 458 yards in the last three games, but he’s only had that many yards in a three-game span once in his career (484 in 2020).

Like Hill, Dak Prescott’s MVP chances plummeted in Week 15, but he can still become the first player in Cowboys history to lead the NFL in touchdown passes in a season (outright). His 28 are one behind Brock Purdy, the league leader. 

Matchup to watch: Dolphins run game vs. Cowboys run defense

This game is full of interesting matchups from Micah Parsons vs. a banged up offensive line, to CeeDee Lamb vs. Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill vs. Dallas’ secondary. The one I think will be the most impactful is the Dolphins dynamic run game vs. the Cowboys run defense. We just saw Dallas get steamrolled for 266 rush yards on Sunday against the Bills offense, which has used more motion under new OC Joe Brady. 

Now we’ll see how Dallas responds on the road against a team that uses motion more than anybody, and has a more dynamic run game than Buffalo. The Dolphins lead the NFL in yards per rush courtesy of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. The Cowboys are 31st in success rate vs. the run and are allowing 192 rush yards per game in losses this season, the highest by any team since the 2010 Bills (minimum four losses). They allowed 222 in an upset loss to the Cardinals earlier this year.

Ravens at 49ers

Storyline to watch: MVP race

Who is the MVP of the NFL? Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson enter Week 16 ranking one-two in NFL MVP odds. Purdy is the heavy favorite thanks to a historic season that includes 9.9 yards per attempt, the best ever in a season with at least 375 attempts. He also ranks top two in completion rate, pass yards, touchdown passes and passer rating. The narrative could swing in Jackson’s favor though if he wins on the road against a 49ers team at full strength that has absolutely steamrolled the competition. They have never lost a game with a healthy Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. 

A win by the Ravens would also feed into the narrative that Jackson is doing more with less while Purdy has an all-world supporting cast. Jackson can win a game after Baltimore lost their most explosive running back (Keaton Mitchell), just a few weeks after they lost Jackson’s best target (Mark Andrews). I can already see the “game manager” trolls coming out in full force if the 49ers lose. 

Why it matters: Home-field advantage at stake

Both teams currently hold the top seed in their respective conferences, which could mean a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Three of the six Super Bowl seeds under the current playoff format have been one seeds, including both teams in last year’s championship between the Chiefs and Eagles. The winner of this game will remain in the driver’s seat for a top seed.

Milestone watch: Purdy yards per attempt record and McCaffrey rushing title

Brock Purdy is inching closer to setting the NFL-record for yards per attempt in a season with at least 375 attempts. Matt Ryan (9.3 in 2016) holds the current mark while Purdy sits at 9.9. Christian McCaffrey also leads the NFL in rushing by over 300 yards and is a virtual lock to become the first 49er to win a rushing title since Joe Perry in 1954. 

Matchup to watch: 49ers YAC vs. Ravens secondary

This is an incredible strength-vs-strength battle between Brock Purdy’s historic season and the Ravens No. 1 defense. Baltimore is allowing the fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.9) by any team since the 2008 Super Bowl-champion Steelers. Purdy can make big throws but the matchup boils down to YAC. San Francisco leads the NFL in yards after catch per reception (6.8) and Baltimore has allowed the fewest (4.4). If the Ravens can contain some of the 49ers weapons from turning short passes into explosive plays they will have a chance.