NFL

NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 16, 2023: Model eyeing Vikings, Dolphins

by
SaC Bot
December 19, 2023

USATSI

Any time an AFC team and NFC team go head-to-head, it’s, in theory, a Super Bowl preview, but the Week 16 NFL schedule offers two legitimate possibilities. Cowboys vs. Dolphins on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET will see a pair of 10-4 teams matching up, with Miami 1.5-point home favorites in the latest Week 16 NFL odds. Those franchises squared off in Super Bowl VI in 1972, with Dallas claiming the first of its five victories in The Big Game. On Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET, Ravens vs. 49ers takes place, a Super Bowl rematch after Baltimore won Super Bowl XLVII in 2013. San Francisco is favored by 5.5 points at home in the latest NFL spreads. All of the Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 16 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 16 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 16 NFL picks is that the Vikings (+3) cover at home against the Lions in a Sunday 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Detroit is just 2-3 against the spread over its last five games, while no team has been better versus the spread than Minnesota over the last two months. It has just one ATS loss over the last nine games. Meanwhile, after covering in all six divisional games last season, Detroit is just 1-3 ATS versus fellow NFC North teams this year.

While Kirk Cousins (Achilles) is out for the year, this is as strong as Minnesota’s offense has been since its starting QB went down as Justin Jefferson returned last week, while Ty Chandler had a breakout game. The running back had 157 yards from scrimmage, plus a touchdown, as Jefferson’s mere presence opens up running lanes. Add in rookie Jordan Addison, who ranks fourth in the NFL with nine TD receptions, and T.J. Hockenson, who leads all tight ends with 91 catches, and Minnesota can attack Detroit in many different ways. For these reasons and more, the Vikings (+3) cover in 60% of simulations See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 16 NFL predictions: The Dolphins (-1.5) cover the spread at home versus the Cowboys on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Miami had every reason to have a bad offensive showing last week as it was without Tyreek Hill and facing a Jets defense that was a top-10 scoring unit entering Week 15. However, Miami didn’t let up and won 30-0 despite pulling its starters early in the fourth quarter. While the Dolphins’ offense gets most of the attention, one also can’t ignore the shutout it handed New York and the noticeable improvement on the defensive side of the ball over the last month.

The Dolphins have given up just 13.8 points per game over their last five and averaged 2.6 takeaways during this stretch. Meanwhile, Dallas once again failed to cover as an underdog last week against Buffalo. The Cowboys have struggled against contenders all year, and they are 0-3 against the spread as underdogs. Miami is 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite, which is the third best cover percentage in the NFL. SportsLine’s model has Miami covering as 1.5-point favorites well over 50% of the time, and it also says the Under (51) hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 16 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 16 NFL schedule and just revealed teams that outright win well over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.