Week 13 of the NFL season features a cross-conference matchup on Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will visit Lambeau Field to take on Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs are 8-3 this season and enter Week 13 as the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. The Packers are 5-6 overall and 3-2 at home as they battle for playoff positioning in the NFC playoff picture.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Green Bay. The Chiefs are six-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 42.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Packers odds. Before you make any Packers vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Packers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Packers:
- Chiefs vs. Packers spread: Chiefs -6
- Chiefs vs. Packers over/under: 42.5 points
- Chiefs vs. Packers money line: Chiefs -255, Packers +207
- KC: Chiefs are 7-4 against the spread this season
- GB: Packers are 6-5 against the spread this season
- Chiefs vs. Packers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Chiefs vs. Packers live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City’s offense remains one of the best in the NFL. Led by head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are scoring points on more than 40% of possessions and averaging 23.3 points per game. Kansas City is averaging 24.3 points per game in the last nine games and coming off a 31-point performance against Las Vegas. The Chiefs are scoring 2.15 points per drive and the team’s passing game is averaging 258.5 yards per game.
Kansas City is in the top eight with 239 first downs, and the Chiefs are elite on third down. The Chiefs rank No. 4 in the league in converting almost 46% of third down chances and Mahomes is a dynamic weapon in any scenario. Mahomes is a two-time MVP and is in the top five in passing touchdowns (21) and total offense (3,117 yards). He also ranks in the top quartile in passing yards (2,917), completion rate (68.1%), and QBR (70.3). He also has a 20-4 career record against NFC opponents, with Mahomes producing 60 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions in those 24 matchups. See which team to pick here.
Why the Packers can cover
Green Bay’s offense is playing well in recent weeks, headlined by improved play from Jordan Love at the quarterback position. Love is in the top eight with 19 passing touchdowns and 11.6 yards per completion and has at least 229 passing yards in five straight games. In November, Love averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, completing 65% of passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. His off-target rate also declined to 10.9% in November, with Love averaging an NFL-best 9.9 yards per attempt when facing pressure from opponents.
Love is also taking care of the ball, decreasing his turnover-worthy throw rate from 5.1% previously down to 2.2% in November. For the season, the Packers lead the NFL with only two fumbles lost and are in the top eight with only 12 giveaways. While Kansas City is playing well on defense, the Chiefs have only 14 takeaways this season. The Chiefs are also in the bottom five of the league in allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opponents. See which team to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. Packers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, with neither quarterback projected to throw multiple touchdown passes. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
Who wins Packers vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 175-126 roll on NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
December 2, 2023 | 12:15 pm
