Previewing NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game, plus Thanksgiving grades and Commanders fire their DC

If you’re a regular listener of the “Pick Six NFL” podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then just when you think we’re done making picks, we make more picks. 

For today’s show, host Will Brinson was joined by R.J. White and Alex “PropStarz” Selelnick — two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine — and the three of them offered some of their best bets for Week 12.

The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we’re going to go over a few of their best bets here: 

Will Brinson (0-3 in picks we shared here last week, 15-17-1 on the season)

R.J. White (3-0 in picks we shared here last week, 16-17 on the season)

Katie Mox (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 14-16 on the season)

As for PropStarz, he usually hands out props, but there wasn’t a full prop slate available when this show was recorded on Wednesday, so we’re propless for today, which is unfortunate, because PropStarz went 3-0 last week (He’s now 18-15 on the season). 

To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 12 — and there are quite a few — be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. 

2. Thanksgiving grades: Packers earn an ‘A+’ for dominating Lions

It’s not often you see every Thanksgiving game turn into a blowout, but that’s exactly what happened yesterday. There was only one game that was even close on the scoreboard (Packers-Lions), but that game wasn’t even that close. The Lions scored a garbage-time touchdown to make it look like there was some drama at the end, but trust me, there wasn’t. 

In Dallas, the Commanders got beat so bad the they fired their defensive coordinator (Jack Del Rio), which we’ll touch on at the bottom of the newsletter. 

Anyway, here are the grades we handed out for two of the three games that were played on Thanksgiving:

Packers 29-22 over Lions (Click here for full game stats)

• Packers takeaway: It seems that something has finally clicked with Jordan Love, because he suddenly looks like one of the best quarterbacks in football. After dicing up the Chargers in Week 11, Love followed that up with an even more impressive performance against the Lions. Love opened the game with a 53-yard pass to Christian Watson on the first play from scrimmage and he only got better from there on a day where he threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers had seven different receivers catch at least one pass, including Watson, who finished with five catches for 94 yards and a TD. As good as the offense was, the defense was even better. Jonathan Owens had a breakout game: Not only did he lead the team in tackles, but he also returned a fumble for a TD in the first quarter that allowed Green Bay to jump out to a 20-6 lead. The Lions couldn’t figure out how to slow down Rashan Gary, who sacked Jared Goff three times. This was a wildly impressive performance for a Packers team that is suddenly very much alive in the NFC playoff race. Grade: A+
• Lions takeaways: After looking nearly invincible through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Lions suddenly look like a very beatable team and a lot of that has to do with the play of Jared Goff. The Lions QB lost three fumbles, including one that was returned for a Packers TD in the first quarter. Goff now has six turnovers over his past two games, which is almost impossible to believe when you consider that he only turned the ball over five times in Detroit’s first nine games. Goff didn’t get any help from an offensive line that struggled against the Packers pass rush. The Lions also went 0-for-4 on fourth down. The most questionable fourth-down call came on a fourth-and-3 in the third quarter when Dan Campbell called for a fake punt from his own 23-yard line with the Lions only trailing 23-14 (The Packers would score a TD three plays later that effectively iced the game). Defensively, the Lions looked confused by almost everything the Packers did. It’s possible they underestimated Jordan Love, but whatever the reason was, they got diced up for 268 yards and three touchdowns by the Packers QB. Grade: D-

 Cowboys 45-10 over Commanders (Click here for full game stats)

• Commanders takeaways: If Ron Rivera wasn’t on the hot seat before this week, he almost certainly is now after watching his team get blown out in Dallas. Riverboat Ron wasn’t wearing his riverboat hat in the first half. During the first quarter, the Commanders had a chance to take charge of the game, but they ended up punting twice from inside of Cowboys territory. In the second half, the Commanders went for it three times on fourth down, but they were already down double-digits by that point. The Commanders simply got outcoached, but it also didn’t help that their defense got torched by Dak Prescott. Offensively, the Commanders had SEVEN drives that reached Cowboys territory, but they only came away with 10 points. With five losses in their past six games, it feels like the Commanders’ season is over. Grade: F
• Cowboys takeaways: The Cowboys probably didn’t eat Thanksgiving dinner this year and that’s because they feasted on the Commanders. The star of the show was Dak Prescott, who shredded Washington’s defense for 331 yards and four touchdowns. The Cowboys QB, who didn’t get sacked, had a lot of time to throw and he utilized that by hitting TEN different receivers with eight of those guys finishing with at least 20 yards. Defensively, the Cowboys didn’t fully shut down the Commanders, but they stopped Washington on nearly every big play, including holding the Commanders to an 0-for-3 showing on fourth down. Johnathan Hankins (2 sacks) and Micah Parsons (1.5 sacks) led a pass rush that gave Sam Howell fits. DaRon Bland also iced the win when he came up with his NFL-record-setting fifth pick-six of the season in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys are looking more and more like a legit Super Bowl contender every week, and if they keep playing like this, this might be the season where they end their 28-year big game drought. Grade: A

If you want to check out my grades for Seahawks-49ers, you can do that here. 

3. Black Friday preview: Prepping you for Dolphins at Jets

For the first time ever, the NFL will be holding a Black Friday game and that will be going down at 3 p.m. ET today. The Dolphins (7-3) are a huge favorite, but they’ve struggled on the road this year, going 2-3. As for the Jets (4-6), their season isn’t necessarily on the line in this game, but it kind of feels that way. 

This game will be streaming on Amazon and ANYONE can watch. For every other Amazon game this season, you had to have a Prime subscription, but this game will be available for free to everyone at Amazon.com. 

My good buddy Cody Benjamin put together our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here’s how he sees the game playing out:

• Why the Dolphins can win: When you think of Miami’s offense, you usually think of Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa and the passing attack, but the Dolphins also have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and if they’re smart, they’ll be using it a lot against the Jets. The Jets defense is surrendering 137.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 30th in the NFL. On the other hand, the Dolphins have the second-best rushing attack in the league with an average of 143 yards per game. If the Dolphin get things going on the ground, it’s hard to see the Jets winning. Also, if the Dolphins can score just three touchdowns, that should be enough to beat a Jets team that is very bad at scoring points. 
• Why the Jets can win: Like almost every Jets game this season, New York is going to need a huge game from its defense if it wants to win. The Jets are 3-0 this year when they force three or more turnovers, so if the opportunistic defense can force Tua Tagovailoa into making a few mistakes, that could open the door for New York to pull off the upset. If the Jets can get their ground game going, that would also be helpful. For one, that would allow the Jets to control the flow of the game while keeping Miami’s offense off the field. Also, with Tim Boyle starting at QB, it’s hard to imagine the Jets putting up big passing numbers, which is why the ground game will be so important. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Cody by clicking here.

If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here’s one prop I like: 

• ONE PROP I LIKE: Raheem Mostert OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-140). Mostert has gone over this number in two straight games, and it feels like he should be able to do it again while going up against a Jets defense that has had some serious trouble stopping the run. Also, De’Von Achane isn’t expected to play for the Dolphins, which means Mostert should be getting the brunt of the work on the ground for Miami today. 

My prime-time prop record is 16-9 this year. 

Finally, if you’re wondering who we’re picking, here’s who we have tonight: 

Cody’s pick: Dolphins 26-16 over Jets
My pick: Dolphins 24-13 over Jets

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of our experts are taking the Dolphins to win, but only five of us think the Dolphins will cover as a 10-point favorite. 

4. NFL Week 12 picks: Browns and Steelers both win thrillers