Happy Wednesday, folks. If you’re not too busy binging on candy from Halloween night, there’s plenty to catch up on around the NFL. John Breech is off today, probably to finish up said candy, so you’ve got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver the latest.
This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let’s get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We’ve got trade deadline deals, Week 9 predictions, major news out of Las Vegas, and more.
1. Today’s show: Grading the trade deadline deals
NFL teams were busy shuffling rosters ahead of Tuesday’s in-season trade deadline. Ryan Wilson and John Breech joined Will Brinson on the latest “Pick Six NFL” podcast to assess the most notable deals:
- Brinson loves the 49ers‘ move for pass rusher Chase Young, suggesting they should get an “A+” for acquiring the former No. 2 overall pick. Even if he’s a rental, he’s “gonna get paid a ton” in free agency and net San Francisco a compensatory pick.
- Breech praises the Seahawks‘ bet on Leonard Williams, arguing the ex-Giants defensive lineman could take Seattle’s “D” from “good to great” as Pete Carroll’s squad looks to stay in front of the 49ers in the NFC West.
- The Vikings deserve props for doing “something” at quarterback, Breech says, but he hopes the team explored alternatives like Ryan Tannehill and Andy Dalton before settling for Joshua Dobbs, who registers as more of a “meh” addition.
Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.
Pete Prisco went 11-5 making straight-up picks in Week 8. Now he’s back with predictions for every single Week 9 contest. Here’s a look at some of his most notable projections:
- Chiefs 30, Dolphins 26: The Chiefs are coming off a loss at Denver, one where the offense didn’t look that good. Miami impressed in beating New England, but it hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record yet. This is a big chance. I just don’t think it will happen. Patrick Mahomes will get the best of the Dolphins defense as he gets back going right after his flu game.
- Cowboys 31, Eagles 29: This is an enormous early-season game in the NFC East. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL, but they still haven’t looked great. The Cowboys have righted things the past two games, especially on offense. I think that shows up as the Cowboys pull off the upset with Dak Prescott having a big game.
- Bengals 31, Bills 30: The Bengals have come back to life after the slow start due to Joe Burrow‘s calf injury early in the season, which really impacted the offense. Buffalo played looser against the Bucs last week, and it has three extra days of rest. This will be a fun offensive game that will go right down to the wire. It’s tight, but the Bengals will win it late.
3. Raiders clean house, fire Josh McDaniels, GM Dave Ziegler
Two days after dropping an ugly Monday night game against the Lions to fall to 3-5 on the year, the Raiders are starting over, announcing at midnight on Halloween that both McDaniels and Ziegler have been fired. Offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi has also been ousted in the hours since, leaving former Giants linebacker Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach.
Here’s everything you need to know in the wake of Las Vegas’ latest overhaul:
4. QB news: Pickett will play, Heinicke takes over for Falcons
The Raiders aren’t the only team making a change under center. Here’s the latest:
5. Ranking the rookie head coaches halfway through 2023
Five different teams changed head coaches before the 2023 season, but only three are first-timers on the job. How are they faring almost halfway through their respective debuts? We ranked them ahead of Week 9:
3. Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals): No one expected Arizona to contend with such an understocked roster, so the Cardinals opening 2023 with a pair of one-score games was relatively impressive. But the shine of their grit has since worn off a bit, with Gannon’s defense surrendering 31+ points three times in October alone.
2. Shane Steichen (Colts): Steichen barely got a complete, healthy game from rookie Anthony Richardson before injuries cut the QB’s dynamic debut short. But Steichen leaned into Richardson’s elite mobility to keep Indianapolis feistier than expected, and his work with replacement QB Gardner Minshew has been even more impressive, with the Colts upsetting the Ravens and threatening the otherwise stingy Browns and Saints in back-to-back weeks. Only six other teams have scored more points per game.
1. DeMeco Ryans (Texans): It helps that rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been a revelation, offering veteran-level pocket poise to transcend an overlooked O-line. But Ryans’ defense has also far exceeded expectations, pairing youth and veteran rentals to embarrass clubs like the Jaguars and Steelers, ranking No. 7 in points allowed per game (18.3) and registering as borderline top 10 against the run. Houston may be a year away from a legitimate playoff run, but Ryans is getting the most out of a transitioning lineup, which should give a long-troubled franchise plenty of hope for the long term.
6. Extra point: Do the 49ers have a Brock Purdy problem?
The 49ers may have drawn praise for landing Chase Young, but they’ve also lost three straight after starting 5-0. And QB Brock Purdy has struggled to control the ball late in recent games. But are his hiccups exaggerated? Douglas Clawson dove into Purdy’s numbers — and the 49ers’ tendencies under Kyle Shanahan — to assess the situation.
This is a 49ers team that has never been built to play from behind with Kyle Shanahan. It has a 30-1 record under Shanahan when up at least eight points at halftime. But, it are 0-37 in that time when down eight-plus points in the fourth quarter, the only team with a loss in every game since 2017. Patrick Mahomes is 6-9 in his career in those situations, one difference between a two-time Super Bowl champion and a team that’s fallen just short.
So … do the 49ers have a Purdy problem? I think he’s off the hook, for now. His concussion, injuries to star players, bad kicking, bad defense and a really bad defensive play call lend itself to a wait-and-see approach. It’s not quite panic time in San Francisco, but it’s getting close — and there’s a heightened awareness around Purdy’s recent struggles. … There’s likely going to be a time when Purdy doesn’t have his full complement of weapons or the team isn’t clicking on all cylinders and they’ll need him to bail them out. That’s what champions do, and that’s the goal in San Francisco.
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Author: Cody Benjamin
November 1, 2023 | 1:26 pm
