Saints vs. Jaguars odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by model on 172-120 run

The New Orleans Saints will try to bounce back from a disappointing loss when they begin Week 7 of the 2023 NFL schedule with a home matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. New Orleans (3-3) suffered a 20-13 loss at Houston last week despite outgaining the Texans by more than 130 yards. The Jaguars (4-2), who are 3-0 away from home this season, cruised past Indianapolis 37-20 at home in Week 6 for their third consecutive victory. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is suffering from a knee injury, but reports indicate he may play through it.

Kickoff from Caesars Superdome is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. New Orleans is a one-point favorite in the latest SportsLine consensus Saints vs. Jaguars odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 40. Before making any Jaguars vs. Saints picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 172-120 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 26-12 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Jaguars and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jags vs. Saints: 

• Saints vs. Jaguars spread: New Orleans -1
• Saints vs. Jaguars over/under: 40 points 
• Saints vs. Jaguars money line: New Orleans -119, Jacksonville -101
• NO: Saints are 0-4-1 against the spread as favorites this season
• JAX: Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
• Saints vs. Jaguars picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans moved the ball well against Houston, as it racked up 430 yards of total offense and 341 through the air. Derek Carr threw for 353 yards, his highest total since registering 373 for Las Vegas versus Dallas in Week 12 of the 2021 season. The 32-year-old quarterback completed passes to seven different receivers, with Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara making seven catches apiece.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is fourth in the NFL with 1,660 passing yards, but the Saints defense kept him under 200 for the first time, as the rookie finished with 199 and threw his first interception. New Orleans ranks fifth in the league against the pass with an average of 182 yards allowed and sixth in points surrendered (16). The club also is tied for second in the league with eight picks and seventh with 10 total takeaways. See which team to pick here.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville has yet to lose away from home this season as it opened 2023 with a victory at Indianapolis and posted a pair of wins in London. The Jaguars are multiple games above the .500 mark for the first time since beginning the 2018 campaign with a 3-1 record, ending what was the longest active drought in the NFL at 82 contests. Since falling to 4-8 last year, the club has won nine of its last 11 regular-season games, with six of the victories coming away from EverBank Stadium.

Travis Etienne Jr. scored twice against the Colts in Week 6 to give him five rushing touchdowns this season, which matches the total from his first NFL campaign in 2022. The 24-year-old running back is the first Jaguar with multiple TDs from scrimmage in consecutive games since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2009. Etienne is sixth in the league in rushing with 451 yards after gaining 55 on 18 carries last week. See which team to pick here.

How to make Saints vs. Jaguars picks on TNF

SportsLine’s model is leaning over the point total, calling for 40 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Saints vs. Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jaguars vs. Saints spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 172-120 roll on NFL picks, and find out.