2024 NFL Draft’s Caleb Williams sweepstakes: Here’s a look ahead at games that will decide No. 1 overall pick

Week 6 of the NFL regular season is nearly complete and a bottom tier of teams is beginning to emerge in pursuit of USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Over the past decade, the rights holder of the eventual No. 1 overall selection has averaged 2.0 wins. 

Here are the six teams with one win or fewer so far:

Carolina traded its 2024 first-round draft selection to Chicago as part of the deal for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and the eventual rights to Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. The win-loss record for the Panthers’ remaining opponents is 33-35.

Remaining schedule

The Panthers’ Week 10 matchup with Chicago is a win-lose for the Bears. It is guaranteed to help placement of one of their picks while inhibiting the other. They do not have any other remaining games against teams on this list.

2. Chicago Bears (1-5)

Justin Fields left Sunday’s game against the Vikings with a dislocated thumb, so that could impact his availability for future games. Chicago’s Week 6 loss bumped Minnesota out of the one loss or fewer crowd. The Bears also played the Broncos a few weeks ago. After a strong start to that game, the NFC North franchise faltered in the end. The win-loss record for the Bears’ remaining opponents is 29-33.

Remaining schedule

• Week 7: vs. Raiders
• Week 8: at Chargers (Sunday Night Football)
• Week 9: at Saints
• Week 10: vs. Panthers (Thursday Night Football)
• Week 11: at Lions
• Week 12: at Vikings (Monday Night Football)
• Week 13: Bye
• Week 14: vs. Lions
• Week 15: at Browns
• Week 16: vs. Cardinals
• Week 17: vs. Falcons
• Week 18: at Packers

The Week 10 matchup against Carolina will have Bears fans conflicted. Do they win and essentially lock up the No. 1 overall selection from the Panthers or lose and strengthen their odds of getting Nos. 1 and 2 overall? The only other game on their schedule featuring a team with one loss or fewer is Week 16 against Arizona. Kyler Murray should be back by that point in the season.

3. Denver Broncos (1-5)

Sean Payton’s first season in the Rocky Mountains has been forgettable. His team’s lone win came in Week 4 against the Bears. The win-loss record for the Broncos’ remaining opponents is 31-28.

Remaining schedule

• Week 7: vs. Packers
• Week 8: vs. Chiefs
• Week 9: Bye
• Week 10: at Bills (Monday Night Football)
• Week 11: vs. Vikings (Sunday Night Football)
• Week 12: vs. Browns
• Week 13: at Texans
• Week 14: at Chargers
• Week 15: at Lions
• Week 16 vs. Patriots (Sunday Night Football)
• Week 17: vs. Chargers
• Week 18: at Raiders

Denver does not have any games remaining against teams with one loss or fewer so it is reasonable to think they will be an underdog in each of their remaining 11 games. Prognosticators were off-base on the AFC West franchise’s outlook as they have three prime-time games remaining.

4. Arizona Cardinals (1-5)

Arizona has been scrappy under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon. Quarterback Kyler Murray has not yet returned so it will be interesting to see how that situation is handled moving forward. The win-loss record for remaining opponents is 36-26.

Remaining schedule

• Week 7: at Seahawks
• Week 8: vs. Ravens
• Week 9: at Browns
• Week 10: vs. Falcons
• Week 11: at Texans
• Week 12: vs. Rams
• Week 13: at Steelers
• Week 14: Bye
• Week 15: vs. 49ers
• Week 16: at Bears
• Week 17: at Eagles
• Week 18: vs. Seahawks

The Week 16 game against Chicago could be very important. If neither team has distanced themselves in the losing race, then one will have a head-to-head matchup on their resume. 

New York’s lone win of the season was a Week 2 showdown with Arizona. The Cardinals jumped out to a 20-0 lead at home and were then outscored 31-8 in the second half. It will be fun to see how that outcome impacts the draft order at season’s end. The win-loss record for the Giants’ remaining opponents is 34-30.

Remaining schedule

• Week 7: vs. Commanders
• Week 8: vs. Jets
• Week 9: at Raiders
• Week 10: at Cowboys
• Week 11: at Commanders
• Week 12: vs. Patriots
• Week 13: Bye
• Week 14: vs. Packers (Monday Night Football)
• Week 15: at Saints
• Week 16: at Eagles
• Week 17: vs. Rams
• Week 18: vs. Eagles

New York has a game against the Patriots in Week 12. Those two teams are currently side-by-side in the draft order. 

6. New England Patriots (1-5)

New England’s season long struggles continued Sunday in a loss to Josh McDaniels and the Raiders. The Patriots have not yet played a team with one loss or fewer this season. The win-loss record for the Patriots’ remaining opponents is 34-29.

Remaining schedule

• Week 7: vs. Bills
• Week 8: at Dolphins
• Week 9: vs. Commanders
• Week 10: vs. Colts
• Week 11: Bye
• Week 12: at Giants
• Week 13: vs. Chargers
• Week 14: at Steelers (Thursday Night Football)
• Week 15: vs. Chiefs (Monday Night Football)
• Week 16: at Broncos (Sunday Night Football)
• Week 17: at Bills
• Week 18: vs. Jets

New England has a difficult schedule but there are two opportunities against franchises in similar places right now. The first comes in Week 12 against Brian Daboll and the Giants. The second is a late season affair with Denver. Both games are on the road so that could certainly play a role in the Patriots’ final draft position. It is difficult to envision Bill Belichick ending in a position to pick in the Top-5 overall.