Cowboys vs. Chargers odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 25-11 run

The Los Angeles Chargers will try to retain momentum when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers (2-2) won their past two games before having a bye in Week 5. They lost their first two by a combined five points, one in overtime. The Cowboys (3-2) are trying to regroup after a 42-10 demolition at the hands of San Francisco on Sunday Night Football last week. They have scored at least 30 points in three games, but also lost 28-16 to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3. Dallas won the most recent meeting, 20-17 in 2021, to snap a three-game Chargers win streak against the Cowboys.  

Kickoff in Los Angeles is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Chargers odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 51. Before you make any Chargers vs. Cowboys picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 171-119 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 25-11 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Cowboys vs. Chargers 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chargers vs. Cowboys:

• Cowboys vs. Chargers spread: Dallas -1.5
• Cowboys vs. Chargers Over/Under: 51 points
• Cowboys vs. Chargers money line: Dallas Bay -126, Los Angeles +105
• DAL: Dallas is 10-1 ATS following a loss since the 2021 season. 
• LAC: Los Angeles is 12-6 ATS in its past 18 games as an underdog.
• Cowboys vs. Chargers picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Cowboys vs. Chargers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Cowboys can cover

The Cowboys rank fifth in yards allowed (292) and second against the pass (168.6). The Cowboys are tied for second in the league with 11 takeaways, including three interceptions from cornerback DaRon Bland. They have scored four touchdowns on defense and special teams and are averaging almost 27 points per game (eighth in NFL). The Chargers are giving up 26 per contest to rank 24th in the NFL.

Micah Parsons is a menace to quarterbacks and is among the favorites for Defensive Player of the Year. Dallas leads the NFL in pressure rate at 51% and Parsons is at 22.3% (second-best in the league) with four sacks. Quarterback Dak Prescott has four interceptions, but three came last week. He is completing 69% of his throws and now faces the NFL’s worst pass defense (300 yards per game). Dallas wideout CeeDee Lamb has 358 receiving yards. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Chargers can cover

Los Angeles has had defensive issues, but has 16 sacks in four games, and the Chargers’ plus-five turnover margin is tied for third-best in the league. Khalil Mack had six sacks in the victory against the Raiders and Joey Bosa (three sacks) should be ready to return. The Chargers have been in every game and the offense is averaging 27.5 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NFL. The unit is also averaging 389 total yards (fifth) and 269 yards through the air (sixth).     

Quarterback Justin Herbert will continue to rely heavily on receiver Keenan Allen with Mike Williams (ACL) out for the season. Allen is tied for eighth in the league in receptions with 35 for 434 yards. Herbert has 1,206 passing yards, with seven touchdowns and just one interception. The Chargers expect to get versatile running back Austin Ekeler back. He rushed for 117 yards on 16 carries in the opening loss to Miami, but suffered a high ankle sprain and hasn’t played since. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Cowboys vs. Chargers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, projecting 50 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

So who wins Chargers vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chargers vs. Cowboys spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.