Yesterday was a bit of a roller coaster for my NBA best bets, as Darius Garland fell one point, rebound or assist short of our parlay win, but we closed the night hitting three straight picks in the late games.
That momentum is something I want to keep going into an intriguing Wednesday night slate that features a primetime matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers.
Tonight’s picks feature two player props, a moneyline pick and a total. Let’s break them down:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-105) vs. Chicago Bulls
- Santi Aldama OVER 13.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
- Jalen Green UNDER 3.5 Rebounds (+115)
- Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers OVER 237 (-110)
Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-105) vs. Chicago Bulls
There are a few trends that are in the Sacramento Kings’ favor in this game, starting with the team’s record as a road favorite.
The Kings are 10-5 ATS as road favorites this season, good for the third best record in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls are in the bottom half of the league as home underdogs, going just 6-7-1 ATS this season.
The Kings should be able to run the score up against the Bulls, as they have the No. 1 offense in the NBA. The Bulls are just 24th in that statistic, and they take the fewest 3s in the league this season.
I love the Kings to win this game on the road.
Santi Aldama OVER 13.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
Santi Aldama is playing a bigger role for the Memphis Grizzlies with Steven Adams out and Brandon Clarke done for the season.
Over his last four games, Aldama has scored at least 10 points in each, and he’s grabbed five, seven, five and nine boards in those games.
The Grizzlies big man is averaging 9.3 points and 4.7 rebounds per game on the season, so I love him to clear this number with an increased role tonight.
Jalen Green UNDER 3.5 Rebounds (+115)
Jalen Green picked up seven rebounds against the Boston Celtics, but I think his prop adjustment is an overreaction.
Green has failed to pick up more than 3.5 rebounds in nine of his last 10 and 15 of his last 21 games, averaging 2.8 boards per game over his last 21 contests.
The Rockets guard is averaging just 3.8 boards per game on the season, so I’m not convinced that one good rebounding game suddenly means he will clear this number with ease tonight.
Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers OVER 237 (-110)
The Golden State Warriors can’t seem to win a game on the road (they’ve dropped eight in a row), and they are also money at hitting the OVER when away from Chase Center.
Golden State is 23-8-1 on OVERs in its road games, mainly because it ranks 28th in defense on the road this season.
The Clippers are a top-10 offense over their last 10 games, and they should have plenty of chances to score with the Warriors ranking No. 1 in pace this season. Los Angeles has hit the OVER in just eight of its home games, but I think Golden’s State’s style of play is too conducive to a high-scoring game tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Author: Peter Dewey
