The first month of the 2023 regular season is nearly in the books with Week 4 officially underway. An NFC North showdown between the Lions and Packers got us started on Thursday night and now we have a jam-packed slate on Sunday and, of course, our primetime matchup on Monday night between the Seahawks and Giants.
As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Falcons at Jaguars (in London)
Time: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, stream on ESPN+
Open: Jaguars -3, O/U 43.5
“The Jaguars have not been great this season and I’m glad I faded them last week, but a trip across the pond is potentially exactly what this team needs. Jacksonville is more familiar with London than anyone else, plus we get a Calvin Ridley revenge game! The former Falcon had more receptions (8), receiving yards (101) and touchdowns (1) in Week 1 than he has recorded in his last two games combined (5 receptions, 72 yards, 0 TDs), but I bet Doug Pederson will look to get him more involved this week.
“Atlanta put up just six points vs. the Detroit Lions last week, and Desmond Ridder has been terrible on the road. He’s 0-3 away from Atlanta in his young career, and the Falcons have averaged just 11.0 points per game in those contests. The Falcons want to run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Both are talented backs, but Jacksonville ranks No. 7 against the run this year. I think this could be a get-right spot for Jacksonville.” — CBS Sports writer Jordan Dajani explaining why he is laying the field goal and looking for the Jaguars to beat the Falcons in London, 24-20. To see all of his picks for this week, click here.
Ravens at Browns
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Browns -1, O/U 42.5
“This is an enormous early-season division game between two good teams. The Ravens lost last week to the Colts at home and have been hit hard by injury. The Browns have won two of three behind a dominant defense. That defense will be the difference. Lamar Jackson and the passing game aren’t clicking yet. Browns win it.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Pete Prisco on why he is taking the Browns to pull off the 24-16 win over Baltimore. To see the rest of Prisco’s picks, click here.
Bengals at Titans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Bengals -2.5, O/U 42
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. Now, the model has Bengals-Titans in its crosshairs. We can tell you the model is leaning Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time! To see which way the model is going with the spread, you’ll have to head to SportsLine.
Broncos at Bears
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Broncos -2.5, O/U 42
“Once a year, the NFL should be allowed to flex a game to 3 a.m. and this year, I think the league needs to seriously consider putting this game there so that no one has to watch it. Instead of putting it on CBS, we’ll hand it off to our corporate cousin Comedy Central and then we can all laugh together while the Broncos and Bears try to play football. I could even announce the game, but only if I’m given a bottle of tequila that I can drink while I watch.
“Trying to pick a winner in this game is like trying to pick what you want for lunch, but your only two options are grilled hamster and a rock.
“On one hand, you have Chicago. If I’ve noticed one thing about the Bears this season, it’s that they show up every week with no offensive game plan and then they make it up as they go along. Not surprisingly, this has been working out horribly for them, and to be honest, I think people are starting to notice. I mean, we’ve barely played two weeks and Justin Fields is already having an existential crisis. That’s what playing for the Bears does to you.
“As bad as things are going with the Bears, things aren’t much better in Denver. We’re only three games into the season and the Broncos defense is already playing like it has given up all hope for the year. Giving up 70 points to the Dolphins was bad, but they also gave up 35 points to the Commanders in Week 2, which is basically the same thing as giving up 70.
“Through three weeks, the Broncos are surrendering 40.7 points per game, which makes me think the Bears offense might actually have a little bit of success on Sunday. Ha ha. I’m just kidding. The Bears offense isn’t going to have any success. We all know that.
“This is a big game for both teams, but I have to think it’s a bigger for the Broncos because the only thing more embarrassing than giving up 70 points in an NFL game is losing to the Bears. If that happens to the Broncos in consecutive weeks, they might as well just forfeit the rest of the season. The good news for Broncos is that I don’t think they’re going to need to forfeit the rest of the season.” — CBS Sports writer John Breech is taking the Broncos to edge out a 27-24 win over the Bears on Sunday. Click here to check out the rest of Breech’s picks for Week 4.
Rams at Colts
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Colts -1, O/U 45
“The Rams are playing consecutive road games and this one is on a short week. The Colts are back home after two victories on the road, including an upset of the Ravens last week. Anthony Richardson should be back at quarterback this week for Indy. This will be a close low-scoring game, but in the end I think Matt Stafford will make a big play to win it.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Pete Prisco on why he sees L.A. edging out a 20-17 win in Indy. To see all of Prisco’s Week 4 picks, click here.
Dolphins at Bills
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -2.5, O/U 53.5
“Everyone and their brother is dying to bet Miami, and they can’t understand why the Dolphins aren’t favored after dropping 70 on the Broncos last week. It’s a fair question, but it clearly ignores how good Buffalo remains. The Bills are good. Josh Allen is good. The Dolphins are really, really good and Mike McDaniel might be the best coach in the NFL *right now.* Having said all that, Sean McDermott is in his bag defensively at the moment and Allen took the Week 1 Jets lesson to heart. If Vic Fangio flips him for real, then you tip your cap. But everyone is going to back the Dolphins here and be shocked when the Bills are the better team. Well, not everyone.” — CBS Sports writer and Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on why he is laying the 2.5 and riding with the Bills to take down the Dolphins. To see more picks from Brinson. click here.
Vikings at Panthers
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Vikings -3 -X, O/U 44
“You shouldn’t bet this game, but my parents are going to be in Charlotte for this matchup. And I’ll be damned if I won’t fade Kirk Cousins — even at 1 p.m. — in the interest of hoping my family can see some good football. Also … the Vikings defense isn’t good, they won’t pressure Carolina as much as people expect, and the Panthers offensive line will/should be motivated by the eight (EIGHT!) false starts from last week. This is a quietly desperate Panthers team — even if the Vikings are better, they’ll find a way to let Carolina stay within a field goal.” — CBS Sports writer and Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on why he is taking the 3.5 points with the Panthers as they host the Vikings. To see the rest of his best bets for Week 4, click here.
Steelers at Texans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Steelers -3, O/U 40.5
“How can you not be impressed by what we’ve seen from C.J. Stroud over the last few weeks? In my estimation, he’s the best out of the rookie quarterbacks through three weeks and that includes an upset win last week against Jacksonville. Now, Houston heads home to host the Steelers, who were able to edge out a win on Sunday night in Las Vegas. I wasn’t overly impressed with Pittsburgh’s offense in Week 3 outside of Calvin Austin III’s 72-yard touchdown. The Raiders secondary is arguably the worst in the NFL at the moment and it didn’t seem like the Steelers could consistently exploit it. Given the way Stroud has played and my questions still lingering about the Steelers offense, I’ll gladly back the home dog with a field goal in my back pocket.” — CBS Sports writer Tyler Sullivan on why he is taking the points with Houston, and also sees them pull off the home upset over the Steelers. To see all of his picks for Week 4, click here.
Buccaneers at Saints
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Saints – 3, O/U 40.5
“Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury and it’s unclear if he’ll suit up in this matchup. If he does, he’ll almost certainly be less than 100%, so it seems wise to grab the field goal here and look for the Bucs to head into New Orleans and pull out a win. Tampa Bay has been solid with Baker Mayfield under center and has been extremely efficient on third down. Mayfield has the highest completion percentage (78.1%) in the league on third down this season and a 129.4 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Saints have been unable to move the chains as their 53.1% punt rate is the highest in the league and that was with a healthy Carr.” — CBS Sports writer Tyler Sullivan saying why he is taking the points with Tampa Bay in their NFC South matchup with the Saints. To see all of Sullivan’s picks for Week 4, click here.
Commanders at Eagles
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Eagles -7, O/U 44.5
“I’m having a tough time figuring out the Commanders. I think Sam Howell has potential, but his offensive line isn’t doing him any favors. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 170 yards and four interceptions in the 34-point loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, and was sacked nine times for a loss of 45 yards. Howell is being sacked at a near-historic rate, as the 19 the Commanders have allowed so far are tied for second-most through three games of a season since 1970. Next Gen Stats says Howell was pressured on 27 of 39 dropbacks last Sunday, which was the second-highest pressure rate recorded in a game in the Next Gen Stats era.
“I know the Commanders upset the Eagles in Philly in prime time last year, but that’s when king Taylor Heinicke was quarterbacking. The Eagles are without a doubt one of the best teams in the NFL, and they have one of the best defensive fronts highlighted by rookie Jalen Carter. This is a pretty big number, but I think the Eagles remember what happened last year when they were 8-0. Philly is 2-0-1 ATS this year while Washington is 1-2.” — CBS Sports writer Jordan Dajani explaining why he is laying the points and rolling with the Eagles to cover against Washington. To see all of his picks, click here.
Raiders at Chargers
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chargers -4, O/U 50.5
“This game between two 1-2 teams is an early-season biggie in the division. The Chargers can roll up big numbers on offense, but they can’t stop anybody. Look for Justin Herbert to play well here against a Raiders defense that made Kenny Pickett get on track last week. Chargers win a shootout.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Pete Prisco is predicting the Chargers will earn the 31-24 win over Las Vegas. To see all of his picks for Week 4, click here.
Cardinals at 49ers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Team -14, O/U 42
“I’m not saying the 49ers are on upset alert, but am I alone in thinking this line is too high? The Cardinals have led in every game they’ve played so far this year, and are 3-0 ATS. In fact, they are one of just five teams to hold halftime leads in all three games this season! Joshua Dobbs is fourth in the NFL in completion percentage (72%) and is one of just four starting quarterbacks who hasn’t thrown an interception yet. (Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert are the others).
“We all thought the Cardinals were going to be the worst team in the NFL, but they absolutely are not. They are gritty, and held the Dallas Cowboys to just one touchdown in five red zone trips last week. The Cards were double-digit underdogs, yet came out and punched the Cowboys in the mouth. Give me that backdoor cover!” — CBS Sports writer Jordan Dajani on why he’ll take the Cardinals to keep their game with the 49ers within the number. To see all of his Week 4 picks, click here.
Patriots at Cowboys
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Cowboys -7, O/U 42
“I’m not sure what rock bottom is in the NFL, but getting blown out by the Cardinals has to be pretty close. I mean, I’d rather give up 70 points in a game than get boat raced by the Cardinals. As someone who picked the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl this year, I have to say, I’m highly concerned with what I’ve seen so far. Sure, they’re 2-1, but after watching them play for three weeks, I’m starting to think their offense might not be that good. I’m not sure if it’s Dak Prescott’s fault or if it’s Mike McCarthy’s fault (now that he’s calling plays), but it’s someone’s fault.
“In Week 1, the Cowboys beat the Giants 40-0, a score that makes it look like the offense had a huge game, but that’s not what happened. In that game, Dak Prescott didn’t even throw for 150 yards and he completed just 54.7% of his passes. That’s not great. In Week 2, the Cowboys beat the Jets 30-10. Once again, the score makes it look like the Cowboys offense rolled, but once again, that wasn’t the case. Dak was much better in that game, but the defense forced four turnovers, which is a big reason why the blowout happened. In Week 3, Dak got outplayed by a guy (Joshua Dobbs) who had only been with his team for ONE month before beating the Cowboys (Dobbs was traded to Arizona on Aug. 24). If your franchise QB gets outplayed by a quarterback who’s only been on his team for one month, that’s a problem.
“What I’m trying to say here is that the Cowboys offense has been struggling all season and Bill Belchick is the last guy you want to face when your offense is struggling. I mean, Belichick devised a defense that held the Dolphins to 24 points in Week 2, which right now I think qualifies as one of the best game plans in NFL history considering the Dolphins put up 70 on Sunday.
“I think Belichick out-coaches McCarthy and lets Ezekiel Elliott score two touchdowns on his old team in a game where the Patriots pull off the upset.” — CBS Sports writer John Breech on why he likes the Patriots to head into AT&T Stadium and pull off the upset over the Cowboys. To see all of Breech’s Week 4 picks, click here.
Chiefs at Jets
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Chiefs -7.5, O/U 43
R.J. White, a Fantasy and gambling editor for CBS Sports, has been extremely sharp with his against-the-spread picks and went 535-450-30 on his ATS picks from 2017-22, which returned more than $3,500 to $100 players. Now, White is zeroing in on this Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Jets. White heads into this week 45-29-2 (+1397) on his last 76 picks in games involving New York, so you’ll certainly want to know which way he is rolling here. We can tell you he’s leaning Under the total and he’s found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. To see what that is and White’s pick, head over to SportsLine.
Seahawks at Giants
Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Giants -1, O/U 45.5
“We’re going to attack the trend of the Giants strugglingly mightily in prime time. The club is 1-13 SU in prime-time games since 2019 and Daniel Jones has been historically bad on this stage. The Giants QB is 1-11 in prime time and that .083 win percentage is the worst mark since the merger for a quarterback (min. 10 starts). Since 2017, New York is just 1-7 ATS at home in prime time and averaged just 12.8 points per game over that stretch. At this point, you have to tail that trend until the Giants give us a reason not to. Seattle’s defense has not been great so far this season, but its offense should be able to keep the Seahawks afloat here in a favorable spot.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he is taking the Seahawks to upset the Giants on the road. Click here to all of his Week 4 picks.
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
September 29, 2023 | 12:00 pm
