Prisco’s Week 4 NFL picks: Packers take down rival Lions, Bills cool off Dolphins, Cowboys handle Patriots

It was a bounce-back week for me last week with my picks.

Well, kind of.

I went 12-4 straight up, but just 7-9 against the spread. So if you were in a pool picking winners, you did OK with my picks. If you were betting them, not so much.

That brings my season records to 29-19 straight up and 23-24-1 ATS. I need to pick it up picking games against the number.

That’s the plan this week. It’s time for a double-up, above 60 percent for both.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

This is a big early-season division game featuring two teams at 2-1 and both coming off victories last week. The Packers are banged up, but should have some guys back this week. Rallying from behind to beat the Saints last week will be the thing that gets Jordan Love going. That carries over here as the Packers win a tight one. 

Pick: Packers 24, Lions 20

I only make straight-up and against-the-spread picks, but the Sportsline Projection Model closely examines the totals for each game, and it’s showing huge value on one side of this matchup. See which side to bet right here.

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+)

The Jaguars were embarrassed on their home field Sunday by the Texans. They have been one of the bigger disappointments so far this season. Atlanta had problems in losing to the Lions last week on offense. The Jacksonville offense has struggled, but this is a chance to get it going. I think they will, even though they’ve lost the last three in London. That changes. 

Pick: Jaguars 27, Falcons 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Dolphins are flying high after scoring 70 last week, with an offense that has looked so good so far. But Buffalo has owned this series in recent years, and they are coming off a nine-sack day against Washington. The defense looks much improved over a year ago. That matters. Josh Allen is also back on track. Bills take it. 

Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 23

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This a game featuring two winless teams. That means it’s a survival bowl. You can’t go 0-4. The Vikings have played the better football of the two teams, but they can’t stop anybody. The defense will play better here and they will find a way to win it with Kirk Cousins having another good day. 

Pick: Vikings 21, Panthers 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is the dog game of the week. Both of these teams are disasters right now. The Broncos just gave up 70 points. But Chicago could play for weeks and not score 70. So what gives? I think Sean Payton will get his team to bounce back. The Bears are a bigger mess. 

Pick: Broncos 30, Bears 17 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is an enormous early-season division game between two good teams. The Ravens lost last week to the Colts at home and have been hit hard by injury. The Browns have won two of three behind a dominant defense. That defense will be the difference. Lamar Jackson and the passing game aren’t clicking yet. Browns win it. 

Pick: Browns 24, Ravens 16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Steelers seemed to find their offense in the victory over the Raiders last week, while the Texans blew out the Jaguars to get their first victory. C.J. Stroud played well in that game, but this Steelers front will pose a big problem for his offensive line. They get after him as the defense wins it for the Steelers with a little offense on top. 

Pick: Steelers 24, Texans 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Rams are playing consecutive road games and this one is on a short week. The Colts are back home after two victories on the road, including an upset of the Ravens last week. Anthony Richardson should be back at quarterback this week for Indy. This will be a close low-scoring game, but in the end I think Matt Stafford will make a big play to win it. 

Pick: Rams 20, Colts 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Both teams are coming off losses, and Saints will almost certainly be playing Jameis Winston against his former team with Derek Carr hurt. So this will be a game won by the Saints defense. The Tampa Bay offense wasn’t good against the Eagles. Winston will do just enough to win it. 

Pick: Saints 21, Bucs 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Commanders’ offensive line gave up nine sacks last week to the Bills. The Eagles’ defensive front is better than Buffalo’s. This will not go well for Sam Howell, who threw four picks last week. The Eagles’ offense was better against Tampa Bay Monday night and that will carry over. Eagles big. 

Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 19

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Bengals won a must-win game Monday night, but now they go out on the road on a short week to face a Titans team that didn’t play well last week. That’s usually a bad combination. But the Bengals seemed to get it going against the Rams. I think that carries over here as Joe Burrow continues to get healthier. 

Pick: Bengals 23, Titans 20

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This game between two 1-2 teams is an early-season biggie in the division. The Chargers can roll up big numbers on offense, but they can’t stop anybody. Look for Justin Herbert to play well here against a Raiders defense that made Kenny Pickett get on track last week. Chargers win a shootout. 

Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 24

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Pats are playing consecutive road games after beating the Jets last week, while the Cowboys are coming off a horrible loss to the Cardinals. That loss will get the Cowboys back on track, especially on defense. The Pats won’t be able to get much offense going, but the Cowboys will get enough. It’s low scoring, but the Cowboys win it. 

Pick: Cowboys 23, Pats 9

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The 49ers will have been off for 10 days here, while Arizona is coming off an impressive victory over the Cowboys. They are playing much better than anybody expected. The 49ers, though, are a big challenge. Even so, I think Arizona can hang around in this one. 49ers in it, but it’s tighter than expected. 

Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 21

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

No Aaron Rodgers makes this a less-than-marquee Sunday night game. But here it is. The Jets can’t score and the Chiefs are playing outstanding defense. The Jets have a good defense, but Patrick Mahomes got it going last week. The Chiefs will win a tough road game. 

Pick: Chiefs 23, Jets 9

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)

This is a long trip for the Seahawks to play a team that has extra rest. The Giants were awful in their last game against the 49ers, but back home they will get it going on offense against a so-so Seattle defense. Geno Smith won’t keep up. Giants win it. 

Pick: Giants 30, Seahawks 26