Caleb Williams and his father non-committal about QB entering 2024 NFL Draft: Could he actually return to USC?

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is projected as the No. 1 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, but recent remarks from Williams and his father suggest he has not yet made the decision to leave Los Angeles after the season.

“That’s for sure now going to be an in-the-moment decision at the end of the year. It’s my third year, and the dream and goal was to go three-and-out. Being around these guys and in college and enjoying it, we’ll have to see at the end of this year,” Caleb Williams said (via ESPN).

His father, Carl, echoed a similar statement in an interview with GQ.

“The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league — because of their desire for parity — gets the first pick. So it’s the gift and the curse. I mean, I’ve talked to Archie Manning — his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I’ve talked to Lincoln [Riley], and Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. 

“The organizations matter. He’s got two shots at the apple. So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school.”

Williams has to take that stance publicly. If he were to say that this is his last season with the Trojans, before playing the first game of the season, then the media would claim he has one foot out the door and cite the quarterback’s lack of focus for any struggles the team may encounter in 2023. 

“Coach speak” has trickled down to players as well. It is no different than the head coach of a team projected to finish with one of the worst records in the league speaking about the team’s goal to win a championship; to say otherwise sends the wrong message. 

Williams may return to school next year. The college lifestyle may suit him. His father makes a good point in that while a second quarterback contract is generationally lucrative, there is no guarantee he is able to reach the negotiating table if he were to end up in the wrong situation. It is his life and his choice. However, these comments and rumors that always spread this time of year rarely coming to fruition.

One factor that makes it a bit more of a discussion is the Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) that players are now able to earn as college athletes. Lofty projections of how much a player may earn have floated around the internet, but first-round NFL contracts are guaranteed. Last year’s No. 1 overall selection, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, signed a four-year deal worth nearly $38 million ($9.489 million annually). It is hard to imagine an NIL package coming close when considering that becoming an NFL quarterback opens new, lucrative marketing doors as well. 

Staying in college would rob Williams of something even more valuable: time. Another year in college means one year less of NFL earnings, in theory. It means an additional year before he reaches the negotiating window on life-changing money. Just over three years after becoming the No. 6 overall selection, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and his representation returned to the table this offseason to negotiate a new contract. The Oregon product signed a five-year extension worth up to $262.5 million ($52.5 million annually) or minimally $218.738 million guaranteed ($43.75 million annually). College NIL money isn’t coming close to matching those astronomical figures.

USC, too, benefits from Williams moving on and becoming the No. 1 overall selection; at least while head coach Lincoln Riley is there. Williams would be Riley’s third quarterback taken No. 1 overall in seven years; joining Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Those three players each won the Heisman Trophy. Williams has an opportunity to become the first two-time Heisman Trophy winner since Ohio State running back Archie Griffin accomplished the feat in 1974 and 1975. 

Riley will have no issue recruiting quarterbacks in the absence of Williams — either out of high school or through the transfer portal — to carry on the tradition in the Big Ten. USC signed the nation’s No. 5 quarterback, Malachi Nelson of Los Alamitos, in the 2023 recruiting class and already holds a commitment from the top overall prospect, Carrollton (Ga.) quarterback Julian Lewis, in the 2026 recruiting class.

How did we arrive at this point?

Williams was the nation’s No. 2 quarterback prospect in the 2021 recruiting class behind Southlake’s (Tex.) Quinn Ewers, who had been committed to Ohio State at the time. He joined the Sooners in January of 2021 after being recruited to Norman by Riley and now South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer; organically applying pressure to incumbent starter Spencer Rattler. Rattler was entering his second season as the starting quarterback at Oklahoma. The prior year, Rattler, who was 247Sports’ top ranked pro-style quarterback out of high school, had created national buzz of his own throwing for over 3,000 yards, 28 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. 

Although Rattler was starting, the drumbeat of Williams’ performance in practices grew louder and louder. With seven games remaining in the season, Riley installed Williams as the starting quarterback. Rattler would sub in for Williams during the Baylor game, but the writing was on the wall. Oklahoma had made the change and was not looking back. Rattler entered the transfer portal in the days following the regular season finale loss to Oklahoma State, signaling that it was Williams’ team moving forward. Riley was named head coach at USC two days prior. 

Williams remained in Norman for the team’s bowl victory over Oregon, but the idea of following his coach to Los Angeles was always in the back of his mind. On Jan. 3, 2022, the quarterback entered the transfer portal and committed to the Trojans less than a month later. Rattler landed on his feet in Columbia, South Carolina, with Beamer in an effort to rejuvenate his own NFL aspirations.

In his first Pac-12 season, Williams mesmerized audiences with his ability to manipulate the pocket and extend plays. He completed 66.6% of his passes for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns and five interceptions; adding 10 touchdowns on the ground en route to hoisting the Heisman Trophy on a well-lit stage in New York. The Washington D.C. native delivered the program’s first 11-win season since 2017 and only the second since 2008. 

The upcoming season may prove to be Williams’ last as a college football player, but he will certainly have options. The NFL will wait.