NFL

NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 1, 2023: Model high on Commanders, Seahawks

by
SaC Bot
September 3, 2023

USATSI

The Week 1 NFL schedule features a plethora of mouthwatering NFL matchups, including division rivalries like Bengals vs. Browns, Raiders and Broncos and Cowboys vs. Giants. Division rivalries are often tough to predict given the familiarity of both teams, but it will be especially difficult in Week 1. According to the latest Week 1 NFL odds, 15 of the 16 games feature one-score NFL spreads. Aaron Rodgers will make his debut for the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog against Josh Allen and the Bills in the latest NFL Vegas odds. The Giants, meanwhile, enter their division rivalry against the Cowboys as 3.5-point underdogs at home in the Week 1 NFL betting lines.

All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Commanders (-7) cover against the Cardinals. With Kyler Murray on the PUP list and Colt McCoy released, the Cardinals appear to be rolling with journeyman Joshua Dobbs as their starting quarterback. This will be his seventh season, but he didn’t throw his first touchdown until 2022 as he’s struggled to make game-day rosters and has primarily been the No. 3 QB.

Thus, he’s facing a steep uphill battle to find success against a Washington team that had the No. 3 total defense last year. The Commanders also had the league’s best third-down defense, while Arizona had the 26th-ranked third-down offense, even with Murray running the show. The Commanders are projected to harass Dobbs into multiple turnovers and three sacks as Washington is forecasted to win by double-digits. The model has the Commanders (-7) covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: The Seahawks (-4.5) cover the spread at home versus the Rams well over 50% of the time. This NFC West rivalry has been even over the years, with Los Angeles holding a slight 6-4 edge over the last 10 meetings. However, the Seahawks beat the Rams both times last season.

Seattle’s offense averaged 23.9 points per game last season, which ranked ninth in the NFL. The Seahawks will return the majority of their playmakers, including quarterback Geno Smith. Smith led the league in completion percentage last season and the model expects he’ll lead the Seahawks to a convincing victory over the Rams. According to the model, Smith throws for 238 yards and 1.72 touchdowns, helping the Seahawks cover the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.