Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I don’t want to say everyone should throw a party this weekend, but everyone might want to throw a party this weekend to celebrate the return of the NFL. Sure, we’re not quite to the regular season yet, but the NFL will be returning starting on Monday with the franchise tag deadline. After that, rookies from nine different teams will report to training camp on Tuesday. Then, the Jets will become the first full team to report to training camp on Wednesday. Football season is here, people. This is not a drill.
Anyway, let’s get to today’s newsletter.
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1. Today’s show: Breaking down the Colts offseason and predicting how they’ll do in 2023
It’s time for another episode of our “All 32” series, and for today’s show, we’ll be covering the Indianapolis Colts. To talk about how things are going in Indy, we brought on Zach Hicks, who’s the co-host of the “Locked on Colts” podcast. If you’re looking for a new Colts podcast to listen to, you can check out Zach’s podcast here.
Here are two topics that hosts Katie Mox and Will Brinson covered with Hicks:
- Will Anthony Richardson be the Week 1 starter? Richardson is definitely the quarterback of the future in Indy, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be starting the opener. Before he can start, he’ll have to prove he’s ready and Hicks only gives that a 50-50 chance of happening. “They want him to go Week 1, they want to go him out there,” Hicks said. “I’d say percentage-wise, I’d put it at about 50% right now, just because you have to see some growth first, but I do know that they want to get him out here as early as possible.”
- Will Jonathan Taylor have a bounceback season? After leading the NFL in rushing in 2021, Taylor had a rough follow-up season in 2022 that saw him miss seven games due to injury. Will the Colts be getting the 2021 version of Taylor or the 2022 version? Hicks thinks it will be 2021 Taylor out there, especially if Richardson is the starting QB. “You could see a phenomenal season from Taylor, maybe even a return to 2021, maybe even better,” Hicks said. “You could see something right around the same caliber because you have a quarterback who will be taking pressure off Taylor [because of his ability to run].”
Hicks spent more than 20 minutes talking about the Colts, and if you want to hear everything he had to say, you can listen to today’s show here. You can also watch today’s show on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Five NFC quarterbacks under the most pressure heading into the 2023 season
Earlier this week, we took a look at the five quarterbacks in the AFC facing the most pressure this year, so we thought it would make sense to also take a look at the NFC quarterbacks facing the most pressure, and that’s what we’re going to do today.
Jeff Kerr made a list of the five NFC quarterbacks who are facing the most pressure heading into the 2023 season, and we’re going to take a look at his top three here.
1. Dak Prescott, Cowboys. “Prescott’s job isn’t on the line, but his legacy is. How many times are the Cowboys going to win double-digit games, advance to the playoffs and not get past the divisional round? This occurrence has happened four times under Prescott, and twice in the last two seasons.”
2. Derek Carr, Saints. “There will be no excuses for Carr if he can’t get the job done in New Orleans. Carr never played with a defense ranked better than 20th in points per game allowed in his nine seasons with the Raiders, but he’ll get that in New Orleans. … The Saints are fourth in the NFL in points per game allowed (20.9) over the past five seasons and haven’t had a defense ranked below 14th in points or yards per game allowed over that span. New Orleans has a top-three defense in yards allowed (314.2) over the last three seasons.”
3. Kirk Cousins, Vikings. “Sooner or later, Cousins is going to have to win more than one playoff game for the Vikings. Cousins is 35 years old and has just one playoff win in his 11-year career. Cousins is entering the final year of his contract and if Minnesota takes a step back this year after a 13-4 season in 2022, Cousins may be looking for a new job in 2024.”
If you want to see Jeff’s full list, be sure to click here.
3. Ranking the top 10 trios in the NFL
Last month, we ranked the best QB-WR-RB trios in the NFL, but don’t worry, we’re not just rewrapping that and giving it to you again. Nope, today we’re ranking a different kind of trio: We’re going to take a look at which teams have the best WR-WR-RB trio in the NFL.
Garrett Podell went through every NFL roster to figure out who has the best top two receivers and running back combination.
Here’s a look at his top three trios:
1. 49ers (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk). “McCaffrey catapulting the 49ers offense to a top-five level in nearly every critical metric while San Francisco was in the process of shuffling starting quarterbacks is a sign of how much of a game-changer he is at the running back. Between Samuel and a continued development for the 25-year-old Aiyuk, they along with McCaffrey enter 2023 as the league’s best offensive trio.”
2. Chargers (Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen). “Austin Ekeler has led the league in touchdowns scored in each of the last two seasons, making him one of only seven running backs to do so since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, and he also became only the second player in NFL history to have multiple seasons with 10 or more rushing scores and five or more receiving scores along with Pro Football Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (2000-2001). … Ekeler, one of the NFL’s best running backs, is surrounded by two awesome wide receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.”
3. Bengals (Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins). “Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could each be the top receiver on their own, separate teams. Instead, they partner together to give quarterback Joe Burrow one of the most electric pass-catching duos in the entire league.”
One interesting thing I found about Garrett’s ranking is that eight of his 10 teams made the playoffs last year. The only two teams that didn’t were the Browns and Raiders. If you want to see there they rank along with everyone else, be sure to check out Garrett’s entire story here.
4. One overvalued player on each NFC team
In yesterday’s newsletter, we covered the most overvalued players in the AFC, and in the spirit of fairness, we’ll now be covering the most overvalued players in the NFC.
Jeff Kerr went through every roster in the NFC and came up with one overvalued player from each team. Here are three players who made his list:
- Cowboys OT Tyron Smith. “The Cowboys are banking on Smith, who has played in just 17 out of 50 games over the last three years, to play the bulk of the season at left tackle. That’s a hard task for a 32-year-old left tackle who has 12 seasons in the NFL under his belt.”
- Buccaneers LB Shaq Barrett. “Barrett has been one of the best pass rushers in the league since he arrived in Tampa Bay, but injuries slightly affected his pass rush. Barrett had just 22 pressures and three sacks last season, while the Buccaneers defense fell from 47 sacks in 2021 to 45 in 2022.”
- Packers OT David Bakhtiari. “The Packers have banked on Bakhtiari to anchor an offensive line that is a top 10 unit when he plays. When healthy, Bakhtiari is one of the best left tackles in football. Problem is, those days are few and far between.”
If you want to see the full list of overvalued players from each NFC team, then be sure to click here.
5. Broncos safety Justin Simmons talks to CBSSports.com
Justin Simmons has had a lot of individual success in his NFL career so far, but the same can’t be said for his team. Since his rookie year in 2016, Simmons has been voted a second-team All-Pro a total of three times, but he still has yet to sniff a playoff game because the Broncos have never made the postseason during his seven seasons in Denver. However, that could change this year with Sean Payton taking over the head-coaching job.
Simmons talked to CBSSports.com’s Jordan Dajani this week, and here’s a quick look at some of the biggest things the two guys touched on during their conversation:
- Sean Payton has been awesome. If you’re wondering what the offseason has been like in Denver so far under Payton, it sounds like things are going well. “Sean has been great,” Simmons said. “Super educational, really competitive, and man, it just makes me look forward to camp and then preseason and then obviously heading into the regular season. It gets me really excited.”
- Simmons can’t wait to watch Russell Wilson this year. “Russ has to be one of the hardest-working guys that I’ve ever been around. Period. His preparation and attention to detail, work ethic — when you talk about all those things — man, it means so much to him, and he works so hard. I can’t wait to watch him this year, and have a front row seat being his teammate, because I know how hard he works and I know how much it means to him.”
- Best QB he’s ever played against is exactly who you think it is. “I would definitely have to say [Patrick] Mahomes and then also, for just my career in general, I think Tom Brady was really special. I played against him I believe twice, once when he was with the Patriots and once when he was with Tampa. I think just the way that he can break down the game from an offensive standpoint and knowing what the defense is going to be in, knowing what matchups he wants, getting the motions to what he wants and knowing your checks. I think all those things are what made him super special.”
If you want to read the full interview with Simmons, then be sure to click here.
6. Extra points: Quinnen Williams gets huge extension
It’s been a busy 24 hours around the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Jets give Quinnen Williams $96 million extension. There will be no “Hard Knocks” drama about Quinnen Williams’ contract negotiation. The 2022 All-Pro has signed a four-year, $96 million extension that includes $66 million in guaranteed money. At $24 million per year, Williams is now the second-highest paid defensive tackle in the NFL behind only Aaron Donald. For more details on this big signing, be sure to click here.
- Super Bowl champion announces his retirement. Malik Jackson, who was a defensive starter on the Broncos team that won Super Bowl 50, has decided to call it a career. The veteran defensive tackle revealed on Friday that he’s “done” playing football. Jackson was drafted in 2012 and then spent 10 seasons in the NFL with four different teams (Denver, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cleveland). Jackson’s lone Pro Bowl season came in 2017 with the Jaguars. His final season came with the Browns in 2021.
- Rivers family expecting 10th child. Philip Rivers is going to be a dad again. The only reason we’re noting that here is because the new baby will be the TENTH child for Philip and his wife Tiffany. The former NFL QB, who retired in 2020, told AL.com that he’s “Fired up” about child No. 10. Currently, Rivers’ oldest child is 21 while his youngest is four. He’s now one child away from being able to field an entire football team.
- Josh Jacobs won’t report to training camp without a new deal. It looks like there could be a lot of running back drama during training camp. Not only do we have Saquon Barkley threatening to skip camp if he doesn’t get a new deal, but it looks like Josh Jacobs is planning the same thing. Jacobs told Fox 5 in Las Vegas that he won’t be reporting to training camp if he doesn’t get a long-term deal done with the Raiders by Monday’s 4 p.m. deadline for franchise tag players.
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Author: John Breech
July 14, 2023 | 1:31 pm
