Shedeur Sanders falls in NFL Draft 2025: Predicting landing spots for top QB prospect in Rounds 1-2

It happened — Shedeur Sanders fell in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. 

During the pre-draft process, I couldn’t remember a more enigmatic, polarizing, mostly perceived-to-be top quarterback prospect than Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. Some draft analysts liked him. Most firmly believed he belonged later in the first round of the draft. 

After a stellar albeit non-dominant two-year stint at Colorado, we hardly saw Sanders after the season. No participation at the East-West Shrine Bowl. No workout at the NFL Scouting Combine. Just one mandatory press conference in Indianapolis. That’s it. 

Entering draft night, there were three clubs with distinct quarterback vacancies: the Titans, Giants, and Steelers. Others with conceivably impending quarterback vacancies — especially long-term — included the Jets and Saints, and there’s typically at least one team that secretly has plans to upgrade the position earlier than everyone expects. 

And if we look at the history of the drafting quarterbacks, it’s been a position that is selected earlier than any other on the field, even if a prospect is clearly flawed. In nine of the last 10 years, the average draft position for the first three quarterbacks is pick No. 12. That suggests Sanders’ fall is actually a bit shocking. 

But purely from an evaluation standpoint, this isn’t as shocking as the historical trends suggest. Before the draft, I wrote a piece that theoretically inserted top pick Cam Ward and Sanders into last year’s class that featured six first-round quarterbacks and ranked Sanders last, at No. 8. In my estimation, he was a very good, not great prospect on the field, somewhere in the Teddy Bridgewater to Geno Smith range. Bridgewater was the last pick in the first round in 2014. Smith went in Round 2.

And the maturity or off-field concerns were another thing. For a member of a media, it’s a totally uncertain variable in what is already a complicated, multi-layered evaluation process. I find it most sensible to stick to what I’m genuinely capable of: analyzing film, measurables and metrics. 

Now, I don’t actually “grade” for size at the quarterback position, because I believe that past ideologies centered around a quarterback being “too short” for the position are actually concerns about a lack of arm strength, because while not absolute, typically the shorter the quarterback, the weaker the arm. And it’s precisely why short quarterbacks — with sizable arms — like Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray, have been successful despite their lacking stature. 

Anyway, Sanders measured in at 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds at the combine. And while I don’t boost or disqualify a quarterback based on size alone, I can’t help but feel better about those who have big, thick frames. The more frail quarterbacks — just like any other position — at least seem more prone to injuries. 

Because of that, Sanders didn’t pass purely qualitative “size” test. However, I’ve realized having extra meat on your ribs doesn’t guarantee anything on the injury front. The one element at quarterback that does appear to help reduce injury risk: the ability to elude defenders. Logical enough, right? And, beyond the health factor, it’s quite useful to keep drives alive. 

And to me, Sanders looked somewhat slow-footed on film. He’s not Drew Bledsoe in the pocket. But by today’s NFL standards, he doesn’t possess the short-area suddenness and pure speed to run away from highly talented defensive tackles, edge rushers and linebackers on a regular basis. 

The numbers bear this out. Sanders’ pressure-to-sack rate was 20.1% a season ago after posting a concerningly high 25.1% in 2023. His average time to throw (TTT) of exactly three seconds was tied for the 26th-highest out of 156 qualifiers. If you’re an elite athlete and improvisational master, you can throw TTT out the window. Sanders isn’t either of those things. 

And, yes, Jayden Daniels‘ pressure-to-sack rate was 20.2% in his final, Heisman-winning year at LSU, but even Deion would admit Sanders is not close athletically to Daniels. That inability to routinely navigate away from pressure was likely another “strike” against Sanders as a genuinely top-flight quarterback prospect in my estimation. 

“Accurate” would be at the top, in bold letters, of Sanders’ draft resume. His adjusted completion percentage of 81.8% ranked third in the FBS in 2024 among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. The caveat? His average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.1 yards ranked 129th out of 156 qualifiers. 

While that’s a clear strength of his on film, it’s not C.J. Stroud or Joe Burrow caliber. And while there’s no way for me to quantify Sanders’ arm strength, I’ve deemed it only slightly above average. 

Therefore, in hindsight, we should’ve have expected Sanders to be selected later than most hyped quarterback prospects. Therefore, a slip to the second wouldn’t represent a precipitous fall. I’m just surprised one team who picked earlier didn’t fall in love with the allure of Sanders and the attention he’ll indisputably bring to the city and franchise.

Now that we’ve reflected on Sanders as a pro prospect and the reasons he may have fell, let’s look forward to when he may hear his name called and what team he could land with.

Shedeur Sanders NFL Draft landing spots

By Tyler Sullivan

Pittsburgh Steelers

• First pick at 2025 NFL Draft: No. 21 overall

Arguably the most important thing for a young quarterback is attaching himself to an organization with stability, and the Steelers have that in spades. Mike Tomlin has been entrenched with the franchise since 2007 and has yet to have a sub-.500 season while on the job. Even as he mixed and matched his quarterbacks last season between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, and the offense was allergic to scoring 20 or more points down the stretch, Tomlin somehow willed Pittsburgh to the playoffs. Sanders presents more upside than his quarterback room from a year ago, and Pittsburgh just spent the offseason bolstering its wide receiver room, trading for DK Metcalf to pair with George Pickens. Those two, alongside tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Jaylen Warren, make a compelling collection of talent that should be appealing to Sanders. 

Los Angeles Rams 

• First pick at 2025 NFL Draft: No. 26 overall

Sanders would likely want to hear his name called much earlier than this, but the Rams would be the top landing spot for him by a pretty clear margin in my eyes. Yes, this would result in Sanders being put on the shelf for the first couple of years of his career, but that’s not a bad thing. As Los Angeles continues to contend for playoff contention with Matthew Stafford — who is entering his age-37 season — over the next year or two, Sanders can be Sean McVay’s developmental project, which should be the envy of any quarterback prospect currently walking the planet. Whenever Stafford is ready to hang it up, Sanders emerges after marinating in McVay’s system and can hit the ground running, which is a scary proposition for opposing teams in the NFC West. 

L.A. also has a solid offensive line and a strong collection of talent around the quarterback position, headlined by wideout Puka Nacua, so Sanders would have key weapons at his disposal. 

Cleveland Browns (+250)

• Second pick at 2025 NFL Draft: No. 33 overall

The Browns picking Sanders with the second overall pick appears less and less likely as we approach the draft. Still, I love the fit with his skillset and head coach Kevin Stefanski. Sanders is more of a traditional pocket passer, which is the type of quarterback that Stefanski has thrived with, ranging from Kirk Cousins to Joe Flacco. Heck, he even helped Case Keenum post an 11-3 record as a starter with the Vikings in 2017 when he was the offensive coordinator, and saw him throw 22 touchdowns, just seven picks, and over 3,500 yards. The confidence meter of Sanders having a productive career after being put in the hands of Stefanski would be through the roof in my eyes. 

New York Giants (+400)

• Second pick at 2025 NFL Draft: No. 34 overall

The Giants are another team within the top three of the draft that could easily pluck Sanders, but — similar to Cleveland — it feels like they may be going in a different direction. That said, the team does have an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Daboll, which should help Sanders’ development at the NFL level if he were to find his way to New York. The Giants also have a strong collection of receivers. Malik Nabers is the clear-cut No. 1 option and could blossom to superstar status as soon as this season, while Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson are two other intriguing targets. With Russell Wilson signed, Sanders could also develop behind the scenes for a bit, and won’t be saddled with the pressure of playing right away, which could be a plus. 

New Orleans Saints (+160)

• Second pick at 2025 NFL Draft: No. 40 overall

The more and more I think about the Saints landing Sanders, the more I like it. First-year head coach Kellen Moore has a proven track record of developing quarterbacks, working with the likes of Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and most recently Jalen Hurts as he came up through the ranks as an offensive coordinator. The former quarterback has firsthand experience of playing in the league and should be able to help Sanders transition to the next level. 

Of course, there’s also a clear need at the position for New Orleans after Derek Carr’s season may be a risk due to a shoulder injury. But even putting that to the side, the Saints are a team with an offensive-minded head coach and boast some fascinating weapons like wideout Chris Olave and veteran running back Alvin Kamara, so Sanders would have some playmakers right out of the gate.