2025 NFL Draft what ifs for Round 1: What if Giants lost to Colts? What if Bills beat Patriots in Week 18?

The NFL Draft will certainly be filled with drama in the first round, especially in a year where every team has its own first-round pick. This is the first time every team has had its original first-round pick this late in the draft in the common-draft era (since 1967), creating even more intrigue with how night one of the draft will unfold.

Since there were no first-round trades yet, what if teams lost the games they were supposed to at the end of the season to improve their draft position? Some teams won games they shouldn’t have won that affected their draft position, games that altered the course of the NFL Draft. 

The Tennessee Titans have the No. 1 overall pick, but weren’t primed to possess it until some late-season results fell into their favor. The Jacksonville Jaguars won games late in the year that affected their draft stock; same with the New York Giants. The No. 1 pick wasn’t even guaranteed until Week 18, with so many uncertainties taking place. 

So let’s break this all down. What if certain teams in the top seven lost when they were supposed to, or didn’t win a game late in the season? How would that have impacted the draft order in a year where there aren’t many “blue-chip” prospects and franchise-level quarterbacks? 

Let’s take a look at some late-season scenarios and how they would have impacted the draft order. In a draft where having a top-three pick is vital, there are different scenarios that could have played out leading up to the draft. 

The Patriots beating the Bills in the final week of the regular season had such a ripple effect on the draft. Losers of six straight games, all the Patriots had to do was lose against the Bills to wrap up the No. 1 pick in the draft. (New England would have had the lowest strength of schedule between Tennessee and Cleveland, so would have had the tiebreaker for the No. 1 pick). 

If the Patriots possessed the No. 1 pick, New England wouldn’t have needed a franchise quarterback since the organization selected Drake Maye last year. What trade offers would teams have come up with to acquire the No. 1 pick from New England? Would the Patriots have taken Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter instead? 

Here’s a look at the top-five picks in the draft if New England loses to Buffalo in Week 18:

Week 17: Giants lose to Colts

The Giants had one of the most surprising victories of the season when they stunned the Colts in Week 17 — New York’s only win since Oct. 6 (Week 5 of the season). If the Giants lost that game, they would have lost 12 straight to close out the campaign and possessed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

New York wouldn’t have waited to see if Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter would fall. The Giants could have grabbed them, or perhaps took Cam Ward with the No. 1 overall pick. 

If the Giants lost to the Colts and all the other results stayed the game, here’s how the top five would have played out.

Week 17: Jaguars lose to Titans

The Jaguars actually beat the Titans twice last season, defeating Tennessee in Week 14 (10-6) and Week 17 (20-13). The Week 17 win ended up significantly altering Jacksonville’s draft position and set Tennessee up for the No. 1 overall pick after New England beat Buffalo in Week 18. 

If Jacksonville lost to Tennessee, how would that have impacted the top five? The draft would have certainly changed and more trades at the top would have been in effect. 

Since the Jaguars already have a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, how would that have impacted the draft? Teams would certainly be trading up to No. 1 to select Ward.  

What if all three scenarios happened?

Let’s look at the top five of the draft if all of the scenarios mentioned above took place: The Patriots lost to the Bills in Week 18, the Giants lost to the Colts in Week 17 and the Jaguars lost to the Titans in Week 17. How does the top five of the draft look with all three results in place? 

The Giants would have possessed the No. 1 pick and likely would have taken Ward. The Patriots would have been in position to take either Hunter or Carter, while the Jaguars’ pick at No. 3 would have been interesting. 

Perhaps Shedeur Sanders would be taken higher in the draft, given there would be two teams in the top five needing quarterbacks. Maybe the Titans trade up to snatch one of those quarterbacks. The Browns would also be in a precarious position at No. 4 as a potential trade-down candidate.

So many potential deals could have happened with this scenario, if only the upsets didn’t happen in Week 17 and 18. That’s the fun of playing the “what-if” game, seeing how much the draft would have changed if the expected losses come into play. 

There are always games that end up changing the course of the draft, especially this year with the the lack of elite talent at the top of the board. Every loss was paramount.