We’re well into NFL Draft season, and sportsbooks have been rolling out different markets relating to this year’s draft on the best sports betting apps over the last few weeks. Today, DraftKings posted their first run of player position matchups, which can be found under the Draft Matchups section of the 2025 Draft tab, that allows bettors to take a stance on which player will be drafted first.
Here are the players in question and the odds associated with each matchup:
- Donovan Ezeiruaku (-185) vs. Emeka Egbuka (+150)
- James Pearce Jr. (-225) vs. Jalen Milroe (+175)
- Grey Zabel (-165) vs. Jihaad Campbell (+135)
- Josh Simmons (-140) vs. Walter Nolen (+110)
- Mykel Williams (-235) vs. Matthew Golden (+180)
As these are newly released, there is the potential they could move significantly by draft day, especially as news develops surrounding specific players. For example, while Williams is already a big favorite to be selected over Golden, any further buzz that ties him to the Carolina Panthers, who hold the eighth overall pick in the draft, would surely tilt the scales even further.
I have one best bet of the bunch I really like and another lean, both of which I will break down below.
Best bet: Donovan Ezeiruaku -185 vs. Emeka Egbuka
What this largely boils down to is how prevalent defensive line/edge rusher is for the teams picking outside of the top 10. When I analyzed all the “Position of first drafted player” team specials for NFL Draft props to build my betting market-based NFL mock draft, DL/edgewas the favorite for 13 teams picking 11th through 32nd, with three of those teams (Falcons, Bengals, Lions) at -150 or shorter to go with the position. Wide receiver was only the favorite for one team: the Dallas Cowboys, who are picking ahead of the range for Egbuka and are expected to either go with Tetaiora McMillan or Matthew Golden at No. 12.
It seems likely to me based on my survey of the entire betting market that the second tier of edge rushers behind Abdul Carter will be off the board by the Bengals’ pick at No. 17. At that point, it’s entirely possible Golden is the best receiver available, while Ezeiruaku is the top edge rusher on the board heading into a stretch where four of the next six teams are favored to go DL/edge with their first pick. I’d expect the floor for Ezeiruaku to be the Lions at No. 28, while Egbuka’s actual draft position line is set at 29.5 slightly shaded to the Under. Put it all together, and I think there’s at least a two-out-of-three change Ezeiruaku is drafted ahead of Egbuka, meaning these odds should be at minimum -200.
Lean: Jalen Milroe +175 vs. James Pearce Jr.
Pearce is well ahead of Milroe on the field and may even be a top-10 talent in this class. But will there be a team willing to risk a first-round investment on the Tennessee edge rusher with perceived character concerns? All it takes is one team to say yes, but at this point he has balanced odds at his draft position line of 31.5 at DraftKings, meaning it’s 50/50 he’ll go 32nd or later according to the market. That’s still slightly better from a draft stock perspective than Milroe, who is +125 to go in the first round (Pearce is -140 in that prop).
But the reason I’m leaning Milroe here is that even though his range is late first round to maybe even Round 3, I feel like Pearce’s is even wider based on what teams have found out in their research into whether he’s worth bringing into their organization from a maturity and character perspective. Milroe has met with the Browns and Giants, two teams who very much need a young QB but are expected to pass on the position at the top of the draft, and if Jaxson Dart goes in the first round as the market is projecting then one of these teams could snap up Milroe at the beginning of Day 2.
If these odds were around even on both sides, I’d probably stay away as I feel like this is a coin flip as to who is drafted first. But at +175 I am definitely leaning toward taking Milroe at value.
Go to Source
Author: R.J. White
April 15, 2025 | 4:55 pm
