49ers with largest free agent spending deficit in NFL history; what it means and what’s next?

Sound the alarms! DEFCON1! No team has been hit harder this offseason than the 49ers, and right on the heels of a season when no franchise was more ravaged by injuries than San Francisco. The 49ers lost a large contingent of household names that helped them dominate the NFC for the last five-plus years, headlined by the likes of Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward and Kyle Juszczyk, among others.

Looking up and down this list, they’ve lost almost half their starters as they attempt to shed salary with Brock Purdy’s massive contract extension looming. 

Notable 49ers departures this offseason

The natural reaction to this exodus would be to suggest the 49ers’ Super Bowl window is closed. After all, this is a historic amount of losses. Through four days of free agency, other teams have spent $321 million on 49ers free agents, the most on a team’s departing free agents in NFL history. San Francisco has also only doled out $37 million through four days of free agency. That adds up to the worst free agent spending deficit ($284 million) in NFL history, by over $80 million! 

Largest deficit in free agent spending in NFL history

Despite the historic numbers, this should be more of a quick reset for the 49ers rather than a major rebuild. This is the nature of free agency. Spending (or lack thereof) makes waves in the short term but they don’t last. The worst teams are usually the ones going on spending sprees and are back to the well again a year or two later. The best teams keep their cores together and reload in the draft while other teams overpay for their free agents.

Recent history would agree the 49ers’ losses could sting in 2025, but they should rebound beyond that. I averaged the five worst free agent spending deficits in each offseason since 2016 and found that no group improved their win total on average that year. Like I said, the short term is usually tough.

Teams with five largest deficits in free agent spending 

The 49ers are an extreme case, though, so let’s look at the teams with the single worst free agent spending deficit in each of the last 15 offseasons. From the list below, only the 2018 Patriots even won a playoff game that year (they happened to win the Super Bowl).

However, on that list, you’ll notice the Ravens, Steelers, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles have been able to win pretty consistently since their “worst” offseasons. 

Team with worst deficit in free agent spending in last 15 offseasons

So, am I hitting the panic button even though the 49ers have a bunch of holes to fill? Not at all. Neither are oddsmakers.

According to FanDuel, the 49ers’ odds to win Super Bowl LX are still sixth-best in the NFL. They’ve barely changed (14-1 to 15-1) since the Eagles won it all last month.

This is not 2015, when San Francisco lost Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Mike Iupati, Chris Borland and Anthony Davis. Now, that was one of the worst offseasons any team has ever had. 

This 49ers team still has its core. The most important players are here, plus Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are still running the show. 

Notable 49ers contracts

It’s an aging core with McCaffrey, Williams and Kittle, plus the prime years of Bosa, Warner and Aiyuk are precious, but there are even reasons to believe the 49ers could still make some noise this upcoming season. 

One silver lining for the 49ers coming off a last-place finish in the NFC West is they have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL in 2025 based on opponent record in 2024 (.415). They also play in a very winnable division where the biggest threat is the Rams, who are coming off back-to-back 10-7 seasons. 

Many of the 49ers losses this offseason were either on the decline, injury prone or both. Samuel clearly lacked his usual explosiveness last year. Greenlaw and Hufanga had major injury concerns. Aaron Banks was obscenely overpaid for an average guard and Javon Hargrave is 32 coming off a season-ending injury. 

Plus, the return of Robert Saleh should boost a 49ers defense that struggled in 2024. 

Here’s a closer look at what’s next for the 49ers to ensure they remain competitive going forward despite the historic offseason losses. 

What’s next for 49ers?

Brock Purdy extension

The 49ers are moving on from all these players to clear cap space for Purdy’s contract extension. He had a cap hit worth $1 million last year, 66th among quarterbacks. I expect it’ll be north of $50 million going forward, among the highest in the league. The 49ers don’t have the luxury of the veteran depth they had in previous years with a quarterback on a rookie contract, and they are going to bite the bullet in 2025 with the most dead money ($77 million) in the NFL. It makes sense to deal with all of the dead money in 2025 as they play the easiest schedule in the NFL. 

This front office believes they can build a winner around Purdy for years to come, whether the rest of us do or not, is another question.

Make decision on Brandon Aiyuk

After Samuel was traded to Washington, general manager John Lynch acknowledged the 49ers were listening to calls from other teams on Brandon Aiyuk, who is coming off a torn ACL and is tied for the fifth-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL ($30 million per year). The 49ers could decide he is no longer worth that price tag coming off the injury, especially if the draft capital in return would be too good to refuse. 

Develop built-in replacements

The 49ers already have built-in replacements from the 2024 draft for some of their biggest losses this offseason. Ricky Pearsall showed flashes of why he was a first-round pick last year with two big games to end the year. San Francisco is banking on him picking up the slack after the Samuel trade. The 49ers found a gem with guard Dominick Puni in the third round, which should lessen the blow from Banks’ departure. Renardo Green can make up for Ward’s loss (he will start opposite Deommodore Lenoir, who got extended through 2029) and Malik Mustapha filled it capably for Hufanga last year.

Reload in the draft

The 49ers have certainly been hit-or-miss in the draft with this regime, but there’s no denying they’ve hit some mid-to-late-round gems (Purdy, Warner, Kittle) and will have ample opportunity to strike again. They have 11 picks in the upcoming 2025 draft, tied with the Ravens and Dolphins for most in the NFL. They are always among the leaders in compensatory picks (four in 2025) and that will especially be true in the coming years with this year’s departures.

The 49ers also have the No. 11 overall pick in a draft loaded with defensive line talent. They should be able to make up for some of the losses up front like Floyd, Hargrave and Collins. They can look to the Rams for a blueprint after they got Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the first two rounds last year.

Find cheap one-year deals in free agency

Free agency isn’t over yet and San Francisco can make up for the loss of Greenlaw by signing former Cowboys linebacker Eric Kendricks, who is 33 years old and coming off a season with 138 tackles. He could be signed to an affordable one-year deal. The 49ers actually had a one-year deal in place with Kendricks last offseason before he changed his mind and went to Dallas.

Shanahan innovation

So there’s the draft, the 49ers core and a Purdy extension. Perhaps the thing that gives me the most confidence is Kyle Shanahan. He’s still one of the best offensive minds in the league and should be highly motivated after a Super Bowl hangover in 2024. The 49ers were hit hard by injuries last year, but some of the struggles fall on Shanahan’s shoulders. The 49ers did not have the same offensive firepower and creativity in 2024.

It’ll be fascinating to see what Shanahan comes back with in 2025. The passing game should be better in some ways. San Francisco was dead last in average target separation last year per NFL Pro insights and they got rid of Samuel, who lost a step. 

The run game could be improved even though they released Juszczyk because they signed tight end Luke Farrell to a three-year deal worth over $20 million. The team will be switching from 21 personnel (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE) to 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE).

All of this gives me reason to believe claims that the 49ers’ Super Bowl window is closed are premature. My expectations are lower in 2025, but still high over the next few years with the core this team has.