Please excuse Seattle Seahawks fans if they need a numerical roster to identify their offense this season.
The Seahawks, under the direction of embattled general manager John Schneider, have undergone an offseason offensive overhaul that has wiped out virtually all of last season’s key offensive figures. Gone is former offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who was fired after one season. He has been replaced by Klint Kubiak, son of longtime NFL coach Gary Kubiak and the offensive coordinator for the Saints last year.
Then on March 5, the team released fan favorite and 10-year veteran receiver Tyler Lockett, a victim of the salary cap. Two days later, Seattle traded quarterback Geno Smith, who had started the team’s last three seasons, to the Raiders after the sides failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension. And then on Sunday, the front office shipped arguably the team’s best and most talented offensive player, two-time Pro Bowl receiver DK Metcalf, to the Steelers.
Schneider’s biggest offensive addition thus far has been the signing of free-agent quarterback Sam Darnold, previously of the Vikings. The 27-year-old Darnold is coming off easily the best season of his career in his only season in Minnesota. Named the starter after the season-ending injury to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy in the preseason, Darnold set career-highs in passing touchdowns (35), passing yards (4,319) and passer rating (102.5) while leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record and a Wild Card playoff berth. After Minnesota allowed Darnold to test free agency, the Seahawks agreed to a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the former No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
But the signing of Darnold hardly improved Seattle’s chances for next season, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Seahawks’ projected win total rose only marginally with the Darnold acquisition, from 7.7 to 8.0. The model also says that Darnold addition had minimal impact on Seattle’s chance to win the NFC West (up to 13.1% from 10.5%) and make the playoffs (up to 30.3% from 25.3%).
One year after the team went 10-7 and just missed out on the playoffs in head coach Mike Macdonald’s first season, why is the model not so high on the Darnold move? Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says the model puts more weight on Darnold’s first six seasons than his last one. Over his first six seasons with three different teams (Jets, Panthers and 49ers), Darnold threw almost as many interceptions (56) as touchdowns (63).
In addition, in the Vikings’ two biggest games last season—the regular season finale against the Lions and the Wild Card game against the Rams—Darnold struggled. Over those two games, he completed just 43 of 81 passes for 411 yards, one touchdown and one interception while being sacked 11 times as Minnesota was blown out twice.
“The model is not a believer in Sam Darnold and assumes his big 2024 season had much more to do with having a top-three offensive head coach (Kevin O’Connell) and a top-three receiver room (led by Justin Jefferson) than him,” Oh says.
Darnold will step in for Smith, who performed decently last season. Smith ranked fourth in the league in passing yards (4,320) and fifth in completion percentage (70.4%), while helping the Seahawks rank eighth in the NFL in passing offense (236.5 yards per game) and 14th in total offense (332.2). Of course, Smith did all of that with the services of Metcalf and Lockett, which Darnold won’t have.
“Seattle could improve more in the eyes of the model assuming they add some receivers after trading Metcalf and releasing Lockett,” Oh says.
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Author: Gene Menez
March 12, 2025 | 5:15 pm
