DK Metcalf got his wish. He wanted out of Seattle, he wanted to get a new contract, and he wanted to go to a warm-weather team.
Two out of three ain’t bad.
On Sunday, just days before the start of the new NFL year, Metcalf was dealt to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for a second-round pick and a pick swap in Rounds 6 and 7 in the 2025 draft, per multiple reports. He’s also in line to land a five-year, $150 million contract. Those numbers certainly suggest he’ll suit up as the team’s No. 1 receiver.
He’s expected to maintain his role as a perimeter “X” receiver. Why wouldn’t he given his natural strength, size and speed? Metcalf should be also expected to lead the Steelers in targets; it remains to be seen if he’ll combo with fourth-year receiver George Pickens or if Metcalf will fully replace Pickens. The Steelers might not be done making moves involving receivers.
Last year, Metcalf had a five-season low in targets per game with 7.2 in spite of the fact Seattle was top-five in pass rate across the league (62.8% of snaps). You can probably blame that on an injury he suffered late in Week 7 that sidelined him a few weeks; before the injury he averaged a whopping 8.7 targets per game, propelling him to 15.1 PPR points per game. When he came back in Week 11, Metcalf averaged a measly 5.9 targets per game and 10.7 PPR points per game.
In years prior, Metcalf averaged anywhere from 7.4 to 8.3 targets per game. Obviously, we’d love to see his opportunities hit those marks.
That could be tough to come by in Pittsburgh. In 2024, Pickens led the Steelers’ primary receivers with 7.4 targets per game. You’d have to go back to 2022 to find a Steelers wideout with at least eight per game — Diontae Johnson had 8.7, but he also had practically no competition for looks from then-QBs Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky.
And if we’re looking at Arthur Smith’s offenses through the years, just TWO receivers had more than 7.4 targets per game with him calling plays: Calvin Ridley with 10.4 per game over five games with the Falcons in 2021, and A.J. Brown with 7.6 in 2020 in his second-to-last year in Tennessee. Smith’s Steelers were in the bottom five in pass rate last season (50.7%) and his offenses have rarely if ever been sky-high in terms of pass attempts per game. That’s a strike against Metcalf.
So it feels safe to say Metcalf’s upside for target volume isn’t great. And that’s without even knowing who will throw to him.
Naturally, folks will start linking Metcalf and the Steelers to Russell Wilson. The veteran QB played in Pittsburgh last year, and he and Metcalf were teammates for three years in Seattle. Metcalf even had a 1,300-yard, 10-score season with Wilson in 2020, then had 967 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021. His numbers have never been as good since. Neither have Wilson’s.
Wilson would be a much better option for Metcalf compared to, say, Justin Fields, who was also with the Steelers last year but really never threw very much nor very well. If it’s him, or someone like him, Metcalf’s upside would be even more minimal. And obviously, if the Steelers somehow make a big splash at quarterback then Metcalf’s upside could be much better, though that seems somewhat unlikely to happen via trade now that they’ve moved a second-rounder.
Metcalf remains a high-end No. 3 receiver for me. I’d be shocked if he didn’t lead this team in targets, but he might lead them with 115. I’d be comfortable taking him in Round 6 or so.
Pickens’ status is up in the air — will a team rescue him from Pittsburgh and make him their No. 1 guy, or will the Steelers keep him since he’s not going to cost them a lot in 2025 before letting him walk? As long as he’s not a lead target-earner, he’s probably not worth overvaluing as a No. 3 Fantasy option. A shame, because he’s clearly capable of making highlight reel plays but makes too many mistakes on and off the field.
Stud-less in Seattle?
In the wake of Metcalf’s departure, the Seahawks have Jaxon Smith-Njigba and … Jake Bobo? Tight end A.J. Barner? A rookie? And they’ll be catching passes from … someone named Sam. Sam Howell is on the roster, but free-agent-to-be Sam Darnold has a legit connection to new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak that might cement him as Seattle’s guy for the next few seasons at a very high salary. That sounds awfully scary, especially since Seattle’s offensive line isn’t great on paper and Darnold has a long history of struggling when heavily pressured, including what we saw in his last two games in Minnesota.
Smith-Njigba does have a pathway to massive target volume — maybe 10.0 per game — even if they’re not quality targets deep downfield. PPR managers will swoon for that kind of upside, which is why he’s in the top-15 conversation, even with a Sam throwing to him.
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Author: Dave Richard
March 9, 2025 | 10:15 pm
