An agent can’t get something for a client if he or she doesn’t ask for it. The easiest way to get an asking or target price is with multiple NFL teams vying for a player’s services. If a player’s market is soft, lowering the asking price will likely become a necessity.
Agents and NFL teams may have already gotten a sense of the 2025 free agent market. Meetings between agents of impending free agents and teams routinely occur at the NFL Scouting Combine, which ended on March 3. These types of discussions technically aren’t permitted by NFL rules. Teams are rarely penalized for tampering with players from other teams when those players are scheduled to become free agents.
The exclusive negotiating rights teams have had with their impending free agents ends on March 10. That’s when NFL teams are allowed to negotiate with the agents of prospective unrestricted free agents during a two-day period beginning March 10 at noon ET and ending at 4 p.m. ET on March 12. Prospective UFAs who don’t have an agent can also negotiate with front office executives of teams. Players can’t sign deals with new clubs until the 2025 league year and free agency officially begin at 4 p.m. ET. A player’s ability to re-sign with his current club is allowed during the period.
It was my responsibility while working on the agent side to create target or asking prices for the firm’s clients headed toward free agency regardless of whether I was the lead agent. Along those lines, I have set target prices with total contract value, overall guarantees and amount fully guaranteed at signing for 10 intriguing offensive players who will be unrestricted free agents or were designated as franchise players.
Players don’t necessarily sign for their target prices since free agency is a fluid process where adaptations must be made to changing market conditions. Some players are disappointed in free agency’s outcome because their market never develops for a variety of reasons (age, unrealistic contract demands, supply and demand at playing position, etc.).
Remember the target or asking prices for these players may be on the high side and aren’t necessarily what their actual deals will be.
- Contract package: $127.5 million/3 years ($42.5 million per year worth up to $135 million with incentives)
- Overall guarantees: $90 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $90 million
Darnold took advantage of 2024’s 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy being lost for the year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders. The plan was for there to be a transition to McCarthy from Darnold — who signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Minnesota Vikings to be a bridge quarterback — at some point during the season.
Darnold’s surprising career year unexpectedly had the Vikings playing for the NFC North title with the conference’s No. 1 seed and a wild-card bye on the line in Week 18’s regular-season finale against the Detroit Lions. He connected on 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to post a 102.5 passer rating. Darnold ranked fifth in the NFL in both passing yards and touchdown passes in addition to having the league’s sixth best passer rating. He also secured his first Pro Bowl berth.
Unfortunately, Darnold played his worst football of the season when the stakes were highest. He was awful in the Week 18 31-9 defeat to the Detroit Lions and the season-ending 27-9 wild-card playoff game loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Darnold’s completion percentage dropped to 53.1% while throwing for 411 yards with one touchdown and one interception for a 66.4 passer rating. He took 11 sacks in the two games, including a playoff-record-tying nine sacks versus the Rams.
Nonetheless, the team-friendly three-year, $100 million contract, averaging $33,333,333 per year worth a maximum of $115 million through incentives, Baker Mayfield signed last March to remain with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be Darnold’s reasonable worst-case scenario. The average salary for starting quarterbacks in 2024, excluding those on rookie contracts, was $40,887,398 per year, according to NFLPA data. Overall, Darnold was much better than average last season.
Minnesota decided against using a franchise tag on Darnold for $40.242 million. There is interest from the Vikings in Darnold returning if the price is right.
- Franchise tag: $26,179,200
- Contract package: $125 million/4 years ($31.5 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $85 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $65 million
Higgins would have been one of the most coveted players available if he had gotten to the open market. The Cincinnati Bengals used a franchise tag on Higgins for a second straight year presumably to buy more time work out a long-term deal with him. Players who receive franchise designations have until July 15 at 4 p.m. ET to sign multiyear contracts.
Higgins being traded after receiving a franchise tag isn’t out of the question especially if the Bengals start having concerns about signability. Cincinnati would likely want at least a first-round pick in return.
Higgins caught 73 passes for 911 yards with a career-high 10 touchdowns in 2024 despite missing five games because of assorted injuries. To remain in Cincinnati long term, Higgins will be justified in insisting on being the league’s highest-paid No. 2 wide receiver. That distinction currently belongs to Jaylen Waddle. The 2021 first-round pick signed a three-year, $84.75 million contract extension, averaging $28.25 million per year, with the Miami Dolphins last May. Higgins probably would have been able to command more than $30 million per year as an unrestricted free agent, especially with a team that has an abundance of 2025 salary cap space and a glaring need at wide receiver, like the New England Patriots, making him a top signing priority.
- Franchise tag: $23.402 million
- Contract package: $95 million/4 years ($23.75 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $60 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $50 million
Interior offensive linemen are rarely given franchise tags because there isn’t a differentiation between the three main positions (center, guard and tackle). This didn’t deter the Kansas City Chiefs from making Smith a franchise player.
Smith easily would have been the best offensive lineman available in free agency. He earned his first Pro Bowl berth last year.
A Smith long-term deal should put him at the top at the offensive guard salary hierarchy ahead of Landon Dickerson, who signed a four-year, $84 million extension, averaging $21 million per year, with the Philadelphia Eagles last March. Salary escalators make Dickerson’s deal worth as much as $87 million.
The franchise tag could pave the way for Smith to justify more money and/or better structure than if he hadn’t gotten it. A second franchise tag for Smith in 2026 at a NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement mandated 20% increase over his 2025 number will be $28,082,240. Smith would make nearly $51.5 million from two straight franchise tags. The guarantees in a long-term deal should reflect this.
- Contract package: $75 million/3 years ($25 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $50 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $40 million
Godwin was on pace for a career year with 50 catches for 576 yards when a dislocated left ankle ended his season after seven games. By contrast, Godwin’s Buccaneers receiving counterpart Mike Evans had 26 catches for 335 yards in those games. Evans signed a two-year, $41 million contract, averaging $20.5 million per year (worth a maximum of $52 million through incentives and salary escalators), last March to remain with the Buccaneers. There are $35 million of guarantees where $29 million is fully guaranteed at signing. At 29, Godwin is nearly two-and-a-half years younger than Evans.
Durability is a major concern with Godwin. The 2023 season was the first time Godwin didn’t miss a game since 2018. Godwin’s most serious injury has been the torn ACL and MCL in his right knee late in the 2021 regular season.
- Contract package: $90 million/4 years ($22.5 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $55 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $47.5 million
Completely healthy for the first time since the 2019 season, Stanley was on the field for 98.11% of the Baltimore Ravens‘ offensive snaps in 2024. Stanley, who turns 31 later in March, didn’t return to arguably being the NFL’s best offensive tackle but he had a Pro Bowl-caliber season. According ESPN Analytics, Stanley, had a 92% pass-block win rate, which was the same as Lions left tackle Taylor Decker. The Lions signed Decker, who is 31, to a three-year, $60 million contract extension, averaging $20 million per year with $31.83 million fully guaranteed, last July.
- Contract package: $12.5 million/1 year (worth up to $15 million with incentives)
- Overall guarantees: $12.5 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $12.5 million
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 4-2 during Justin Fields‘ six starts at the beginning of the 2024 season because of Russell Wilson’s calf injury. Fields threw for 1,106 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while completing 66.3% of his passes (106 of 160 attempts) for a 93.9 passer rating. Fields, 2021’s 11th overall pick, also used his legs by gaining 231 yards on the ground in 55 carries and scoring five times. Fields’ plan should be to find the best opportunity to be a starting quarterback, just like Darnold did in free agency last year. Darnold signing a one-year, $10 million deal with the Vikings is going to pay big dividends for him.
- Contract package: $7.25 million/1 year (worth up to $8.5 million with incentives)
- Overall guarantees: $6.5 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $6.5 million
Ertz bounced back from an injury-plagued 2023 season where he asked for his release from the Arizona Cardinals. He caught 66 passes for 654 yards with seven touchdowns serving as 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels‘ security blanket on the Washington Commanders. The three-time Pro Bowler was at the bottom of the pay scale for starting tight ends on veteran contracts. He signed a one-year, $3 million deal worth up to $5 million through incentives.
Statistically, Ertz was very similar to Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry last season. Freiermuth had 65 receptions, 653 yards receiving and seven touchdown catches. Henry caught 66 balls for 674 yards with two touchdowns. At 34, Ertz isn’t going to make the type of money as Freiermuth, who is 26, or a 30-year-old Henry. Freiermuth received a four-year extension, averaging $12.1 million per year, from the Steelers shortly before the 2024 regular season started. Henry remained with the Patriots in 2024 free agency on a three-year, $27 million contract worth a maximum of $30 million through incentives.
It’s been several years since an older tight end wasn’t severely penalized by age in free agency. In 2020, Jimmy Graham signed a two-year, $16 million deal, averaging $8 million per year that was worth up to $17.6 million thanks to incentives and salary escalators, with the Chicago Bears. Graham was coming off a 2019 season where he had 38 receptions, 447 yards receiving and three touchdown catches in 16 games as a 33-year-old. That same year, Greg Olsen went to the Seattle Seahawks on a one-year deal worth $7 million when he was 35. Olsen had 52 catches for 597 yards with two touchdowns in 14 games during the 2019 season.
- Contract package: $30 million/3 years ($10 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $21 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $15 million
Harris had his fourth straight season with 1,000 yards rushing in his four-year NFL career. He is the only player to do so over the last four seasons (2021 through 2024). Harris rushed for 1,043 yards on 263 carries for a 4.0 average with six touchdowns in 2024.
The 2021 first-round pick’s production is largely a function of volume. His 1,097 rushing attempts are the NFL’s second most since he entered the league.
Harris doesn’t fare particularly well under the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. For example, he is minus-121 yards rushing over expectation during his four NFL seasons.
Nonetheless, the Steelers did Harris a favor by declining to pick up his fully guaranteed $6.79 million, fifth-year option for 2025. He could be the beneficiary of the contracts signed by James Conner, Chuba Hubbard and Rhamondre Stevenson.
The New England Patriots signed Stevenson a four-year, $36 million extension (worth up to $48 million through incentives), averaging $9 million per year with $17.116 million fully guaranteed, last June. The Carolina Panthers rewarded Hubbard with a four-year, $33.2 million extension (worth up to $37.2 million) with $16.558 million of guarantees in early November. Conner is the most recent relevant data point. He received a two-year, $19 million extension, averaging $9.5 million per year, from the Arizona Cardinals at the end of November.
- Contract package: $42 million/3 years ($14 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $29 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $29 million
Dalman heads the offensive center free agent class. Run blocking is Dalman’s strength but he continues to show improvement in pass protection. Lloyd Cushenberry got the top offensive center contract in 2024 free agency. He signed a four-year, $50 million contract, averaging $12.5 million per year, with the Tennessee Titans. The deal contained $30 million in guarantees where $26 million was fully guaranteed at signing. This was way before Creed Humphrey reset the center market with the four year, $72 million extension, averaging $18 million per year, he received from the Chiefs last preseason.
- Contract package: $45 million/3 years ($15 million per year)
- Overall guarantees: $31 million
- Fully guaranteed at signing: $24 million
Becton took a one-year, $2.75 million deal worth up to $5.5 million through incentives after four injury-plagued and disappointing seasons with the New York Jets. The 11th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft resurrected his career by moving from left tackle to a right guard, a position he had never played. Becton’s reversal of fortune is somewhat reminiscent of Kevin Dotson’s in 2023 when he thrived moving from left guard to right guard after a preseason trade to the Rams from the Steelers, who were probably going to release him in the roster cutdown.
Dotson remained with the Rams in free agency on a three-year, $48 million contract, averaging $16 million per year with $32 million in guarantees where $15 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Becton’s salary floor shouldn’t be less than the three-year, $30 million deal, averaging $10 million per year with $17 million fully guaranteed, Jon Runyan Jr. received from the New York Giants last March in free agency.
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Author: Joel Corry
March 6, 2025 | 3:10 am
