2025 NFL Coach of the Year odds, early picks: Mike Vrabel among favorites, plus identifying two value bets

The head coaching carousel came to a close this week as the New Orleans Saints agreed to deal with Kellen Moore to lead the franchise into the future. Moore filled the last of seven openings this cycle, and now all 32 teams have a head coach installed as they embark into the offseason. That presents us with an opportunity to get our initial glimpse of the upcoming Coach of the Year race for 2025. 

Below, we’ll roll through the odds for each coach in the league to win the award at next year’s NFL Honors, and we’ll unveil our early picks, including a value play and a long-shot wager worth considering. 

2025 Coach of the Year odds

NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

The pick: Mike Vrabel (+850)

The NFL has recently shied away from giving this award to head coaches who exceeded expectations in their first seasons with their new clubs, with Kevin Stefanski (Browns) and Kevin O’Connell (Vikings) winning the last two years. Prior to that, however, four of the six winners did claim the award after Year 1 in their new situation. We could see a return to that norm in 2025 with four of the five coaches with the highest odds all hired this offseason. 

Out of that bunch, Vrabel is the most fascinating candidate and our pick here. He’s not a rookie head coach like the betting favorite Ben Johnson in Chicago, and was widely viewed as one of the top in-game coaches in the league during his tenure in Tennessee. Vrabel also won this award back in 2021, but voters haven’t shown that to be a massive speed bump in his attempts to win again, as Stefanski won for the second time in his career just two years ago.  

Now, Vrabel leads a Patriots squad that has rising second-year quarterback Drake Maye solidified as QB1 and enters the offseason armed with the most amount of cap space in the league along with the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft. That should provide ample opportunities to revamp the roster around Maye and contend for a playoff spot, assuming they hit on their player acquisitions.

It also doesn’t hurt that Vrabel is facing the third-easiest schedule in the NFL next season based on their opponents’ total win percentage from 2024.

The value pick: Kyle Shanahan (+2200)

It’s pretty shocking that Shanahan has yet to win this award in his career, but that’s the reality. The 2024 campaign was a forgetful one for his San Francisco squad as the 49ers were ravished by injuries that helped derail their season and finished with a 6-11 record. However, if they enter next season with a clean bill of health, this is still a highly talented squad that was either playing in the Super Bowl or NFC Championship in each of the previous three years. 

Of course, there is work to be done on the roster this offseason with Brock Purdy’s looming contract extension and Deebo Samuel possibly being traded, along with free agency and the draft. That said, the pieces of a team that has made deep playoff runs are still in place. Given that the Niners now have the easiest strength of schedule in the league next year, there’s a possible path to the No. 1 seed, which would almost surely put Shanahan among the betting favorites, if not the outright favorite. 

The long-shot pick: DeMeco Ryans (+2500)

The Houston Texans had mirroring seasons over the past two years, winning the AFC South and advancing to the divisional round. However, the 2024 season was much more trying for the organization, particularly on offense, which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik at the end of the year. With Ryans installing Nick Caley as the OC after coming up through the coaching ranks with the Patriots (Bill Belichick) and Rams (Sean McVay), the unit should see a boost in 2025. 

While C.J. Stroud had a down year by his standards in his sophomore season, I am expecting a bounce back this upcoming season, which sets the Texans up to again rival for the division crown. With a schedule that ranks in the bottom half of the league in strength, they could put together enough wins that find them in play for the top seed in the conference, especially if AFC West and AFC North clubs are beating each other up throughout next season. That would set the narrative up nicely for Ryans to gain traction for the award.