Super Bowl QBs tale of the tape: Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes as Eagles rematch Chiefs in NFL championship

NEW ORLEANS — Two years after they went head to head in Super Bowl LVII, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are set to square off for the next Lombardi Trophy. And once again, the headlining showdown of the NFL’s ultimate game just might be under center, where Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are angling to boost, or reshape, their legacies as Super Bowl LIX’s starting quarterbacks.

Mahomes, of course, is already on a Hall of Fame trajectory. A win on Sunday would give him a record three straight Super Bowl victories, and four rings in seven years as the Chiefs’ starter. Hurts, on the other hand, is trying to make up for an oh-so-close Super Bowl bout with Mahomes to close the 2022 season. At 26, he’s already the first Eagles quarterback to ever reach two Super Bowls in his career.

As we anticipate their Sunday showdown, we’ve studied the tape and the numbers to break down which signal-caller — Hurts or Mahomes — has the edge going into their matchup at Caesars Superdome:

The season overview: Hurts vs. Mahomes

The following statistics include both regular-season and postseason play.

Remove Hurts’ bountiful rushing-touchdown total, and it’s not hard to see that these two championship-caliber quarterbacks have experienced a similar 2024 campaign. Neither veteran has approached the aerial heights of their 2022 MVP race, but for different reasons: Hurts has simply thrown it much less, embracing more of a background role in a Saquon Barkley-led ground attack, whereas Mahomes has relied much more on short-area targets, spreading the ball as a point guard more than big-time playmaker.

Both quarterbacks have also experienced roughly a tale of two seasons, enduring a turnover-littered stretch to open the season — with Hurts forcing passes in key spots, including the red zone, and Mahomes trying but struggling to push the ball to youngsters like Xavier Worthy — before reining themselves in. They’ve been masters at ball security since those early goings, which is a big reason why they’re also, above all, undeniable winners, combining to go 32-4 in regular- and postseason starts.

What can these numbers — and other advanced statistics — tell us in addition to the eye test? What lies beneath the surface in the matchup of these high-profile quarterbacks? Let’s proceed.

Note: Advanced statistics referenced below are courtesy of NFL Pro.

Accuracy

Earlier in his career, Hurts was much more of a hit-or-miss passer, tending to flee the pocket as a runner. He’s almost elevated his accuracy each year as a pro, however, and his 68.8% completion rate this season is a personal best. Mahomes isn’t far behind, and he’s also been more accurate over a longer period, but his Eagles counterpart deserves more props than he’s getting in this department. Yes, he’s throwing it less, but he’s hitting a higher rate of his passes while throwing into tighter windows.

Edge: Hurts

Ball control

Mahomes is arguably unmatched when it comes to situational football (more on that below), but that doesn’t mean he’s been a standard-setter in terms of ball protection. Did you know he’s totaled 40 giveaways over the last three seasons, which ranks sixth-worst among all quarterbacks? Granted, Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen is No. 1 on that list. But Hurts has been even sturdier with the rock when it counts, totaling just one turnover over his seven playoff games since 2022.

Edge: Hurts

Big-play magic

At the dawn of his NFL stardom, Mahomes topped everyone here, launching one bomb after another as the primary pawn of Andy Reid’s video-game offense. He is a much different type of player now. The pesky backyard-style athleticism remains, and sometimes shows up in surprisingly long scrambles, but Mahomes’ passing is almost exclusively dink-and-dunk material; he’s throwing it deep 7.2% of the time compared to Hurts’ 8.8%, whereas Hurts is connecting downfield when he’s asked to air it out.

Edge: Hurts

Rushing impact

This is one area where Mahomes is supremely underrated, especially on this type of stage. We all know he can shake loose and extend plays like the best of them, but he’s also one of the NFL’s most dangerous crunch-time rushers, saving his best sideline tiptoes or open-field sprints for the most critical times. Hurts’ volume of work is just more extensive, and he’s also a bit more dynamic when at full health, offering both short-yardage undeniability on the “Tush Push” sneak and slippery chain-moving feet around the corner.

Edge: Hurts

Situational poise

Mahomes has to claim one of these categories, right? This just happens to be one of the most pivotal. Hurts certainly deserves consideration, given his clutch ball control for two Super Bowl-contending teams in three seasons. No moment is too big for him. But that’s precisely Mahomes’ game, to an even greater degree. With five fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives this season alone, the two-time champion excels at making the right reads and reactions when the stakes are highest.

Edge: Mahomes

Super Bowl experience

Hurts turned in an elite Super Bowl debut to close 2022, scoring four total touchdowns in a 38-35 defeat to Mahomes’ Chiefs, but he also lost a fumble in that one. More importantly, Mahomes easily outweighs his fellow quarterback in sheer big-game experience at the NFL level. Like Tom Brady with the New England Patriots and later Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his comfort and familiarity with this territory can neither be matched nor fully quantified as he seeks to claim the top prize for a third straight year.

Edge: Mahomes

Head-to-head history

Hurts and Mahomes have met three times since the former took over as the Eagles’ permanent starter in 2021, and each of the last two have gone to the wire; those matchups were decided by a combined seven points. Mahomes has easily been the more productive passer in their head-to-head contests, combining for 10 passing scores to just two picks, though Hurts has combined for 20 first downs and five scores on the ground. The Chiefs quarterback is 1-1 against Hurts in the regular season, and 1-0 in the playoffs.

Edge: Mahomes

The final verdict

The tally from our seven categories is as follows:

1. Jalen Hurts (4)
2. Patrick Mahomes (3)

It’s a close one, as it should be for the Super Bowl. Mahomes fans could make a case their man deserves the nod in the accuracy department, considering his heavier workload for a less talented passing lineup. But the truth is, almost every category here, besides maybe total Super Bowl experience, was close to a coinflip. Eagles fans should be happy that Hurts has been the more efficient of the two quarterbacks as of late, but it’s also always hard to bet against “situational poise” on the NFL’s biggest stage, which is why it might not even matter that Mahomes’ numbers haven’t been the prettiest this year. No matter what, we expect their Sunday head-to-head to be ultra-competitive, taking this game to a must-see finish.