The Super Bowl MVP is one of the more wagered outcomes outside of the actual Super Bowl itself. And yet, it probably shouldn’t be? Most of the time, the MVP winner of the Super Bowl is the quarterback from the winning team. It’s like the real MVP, only over the course of one game!
And Super Bowl LIX won’t be much different, with the exception of Saquon Barkley, who can easily win the award and is actually favored over Jalen Hurts to win the award for the Eagles, given how dominant their run game has been this season.
Let’s look at the recent history of the award and who might qualify from the various levels of betting availability. All odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
History of Super Bowl MVP
Let’s start in 1999, which is a reasonable timeline for the “modern” NFL (and also, quite depressingly, 25 years since I graduated high school), and look at the composition of the winners.
Quarterbacks won the award 15 of the 25 times since 1999, with Tom Brady (5x winner), Patrick Mahomes (3x), Eli Manning (2x), Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles all picking up the award. There’s really not much to explain here: in most of those instances, the quarterback who won the award was the story of the game and generally speaking played pretty well in a close matchup or made some huge throws or was just, you know, the quarterback.
Wide receivers are REALLY notable because they’ve won the award five times. Four of those instances came from the Steelers — Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes — and the Patriots — Deion Branch and Julian Edelman — with Cooper Kupp rounding out the wideout MVPs. Kupp is a weird one. He didn’t top 100 yards, but he did catch both of the touchdown passes Matthew Stafford threw and was generally awesome. Still, it’s a little surprising voters didn’t go QB here.
Ward and Holmes actually surprised me because I thought there might have been some anti-Ben Roethlisberger voting going on, but both of their wins were before his off-field issues surfaced. Ward had five catches for 100+ yards including the game-sealing catch from Antwaan Randle El on the trick play, so I can see it. Holmes, of course, had one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history and a pretty strong stat line. In both cases, Roethlisberger wasn’t that great statistically and voters were probably penciling in Kurt Warner or Larry Fitzgerald in the second one.
I think Branch and Edelman are easily explainable (and extremely applicable to this Super Bowl) as Tom Brady had won Super Bowl MVP twice in the previous four years, it was a lower-scoring game and each wideout went off for a big stat line. Voter fatigue is real and we could see it potentially this year if the Chiefs win Super Bowl LIX.
Defensively, you’ve usually got to have a GREAT defense for the award to show up on that side of the ball. Ray Lewis, Malcolm Smith, Von Miller and Dexter Jackson are the only defenders to win and each of those four was part of a dominant defense that took care of business throughout the regular season and then showed up during the Super Bowl. Also worth noting: all four of the games in which a defensive player won MVP was a blowout. That’s a real thing, because voters see a dominant defense and have more time to think about giving it to a defensive player when there’s not close, interesting football to be watched.
Notably, a running back hasn’t won Super Bowl MVP since in the last 25 years! Which brings us to …
Favorites
If there ever was a year to break the streak — the last running back to win Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1997 after the Broncos first of two Super Bowl wins — it’s this year with Barkley. Barkley’s run this postseason reminds me of Davis’ incredible performance. Davis popped off for four 100+-yard rushing games in the playoffs going for 184/101/139 yards before capping it with a 30-rush, 157-yard, three-touchdown Super Bowl against the Packers. Yeah, he was getting that hardware.
Barkley (+240) is the second favorite, behind only Mahomes (+105). Which means, yes, Barkley is favored over Hurts. I don’t think we’ve seen that in a hot minute, although Marshawn Lynch may have been favored over Russell Wilson back when the Seahawks and Broncos met. There’s a reason why: Saquon won’t win MVP but many people thought he should have been in the mix for the season he had. He’s had an even more dominant postseason, running for 442 yards and scoring five touchdowns in the three games leading up to Super Bowl LIX. If you think the Eagles win this game and win it like they’ve won their last three playoff games, Saquon is a pretty good look, because you’re getting more than double the payout on the Eagles moneyline.
Mahomes I have no interest in. Even if the Chiefs win, you’re only getting a 25 cent bump off their moneyline and, as mentioned, voter fatigue could set in. Now, if it’s a close game and he does what he usually does and creates magic and steals the game with some late athletic plays, he’s probably winning. But the price just isn’t great.
Hurts (+375) isn’t a crazy look either, if you like the Eagles to win in a different fashion. He was easily getting the award if Philly beats K.C. a few years ago after throwing for 300 yards and a touchdown and rushing for three more. It’s just a question of where you think the production will come from if the Eagles win. I’m probably not looking too far down the board if I’m betting Philly players because Barkley and Hurts are decent value given the close spread.
Kelce tier
There’s a big drop-off after the “Big Three.” Travis Kelce (15-1) is the only other player inside of 30-1. Again, there’s a reason for that, because the Chiefs spread things around so much and the Eagles production is generally so concentrated with the rushing attack. Kelce isn’t a horrible look if you think he’s going to have a monster game and voters could be interested in rewarding him for his playoff success. But he’ll need to catch multiple touchdowns and really see nothing else from the rest of the Chiefs players — even if he has three touchdowns, they’re all likely coming from Mahomes. He’d need to run or pass for one separately to pull this off probably.
Medium shots
Here’s where we find the tertiary players, some of whom are good looks. I like Xavier Worthy (30-1) a lot, personally. The Chiefs rookie fits the mold of explosive playmaker who can rack up big stats and steal the award in a Mahomes voter fatigue situation where there might not be a ton of offense. He also should get at least one rush attempt — his over/under is 1.5, juiced to the under — and could get more potentially. If he rips off a couple big plays, with maybe a rushing touchdown that takes away from Mahomes’ stats, Worthy is live to win at a nice price.
A.J. Brown (35-1) is tough because even if he explodes, the production is coming via Hurts passing the ball and Hurts would have to not score on the ground.
Long shots
We got here quickly! Only six players below 60-1 is pretty wild, but that’s just the nature of this game, how the award is voted on, in particular when it’s a close game, and also the books being a little sharper when it comes to this award than in the past.
Kareem Hunt (66-1) doesn’t really interest me because of Philly’s run defense. DeVonta Smith (66-1) and Dallas Goedert (100-1) have the same issues as Brown. Jalen Carter (66-1) is an incredible player but that’s probably not high enough unless the Eagles just dominate the Chiefs defensively.
Chris Jones (66-1) is probably my favorite long shot on the defensive side, because if the Chiefs romp the Eagles somehow and bottle up the run/slow down the “Tush Push” (like they did against Buffalo), people will be looking for someone on the defensive side to reward and we’ve seen Mahomes win three times in five years already.
If the Eagles do win big, defensive players could come into play, although in that scenario Saquon is probably ripping off a run or two, or Hurts is walking into the end zone. Zack Baun (80-1) and Nolan Smith (250-1), in particular the latter at that price, stand out as guys who could make game-flipping plays that put the Eagles in position for a dominant win.
Other than that, it’s pretty slim pickings unless you expect an explosion game out of Marquise Brown (125-1) or DeAndre Hopkins (150-1) in a low-scoring affair.
Those guys are on the same mobile scroll as Kenny Pickett (250-1) and Carson Wentz (250-1).
Who should you bet on?
For me it’s pretty simple: take a look at the Eagles up top if you think Philly is winning as both Barkley and Hurts provide value off the moneyline, although picking your lane is a tough spot there.
Worthy is a decent dart throw regardless of how it goes if the Chiefs win and Jones (in a Chiefs blowout) or Baun/Smith (in an Eagles blowout) are probably your top defensive choices.
Vegas projects this to be a close, higher-scoring Super Bowl and the MVP odds reflect that fairly well.
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Author: Will Brinson
February 5, 2025 | 11:20 am
