NEW ORLEANS — After spending 24 straight hours on Bourbon Street, I’d like everyone to know that I’m finally ready to make my Super Bowl pick. As everyone knows, any time the Super Bowl is New Orleans, you have to survive 24 hours in the French Quarter before you can make your pick, so that’s exactly what I did. Actually, you don’t have to do that, but that’s what I told my bosses so I could expense my bar tab.
Since I’m in New Orleans for the game, I’ll be around if something crazy happens, and there’s a 87 percent chance something crazy will happen, because this is New Orleans. If I see an Eagles or Chiefs player getting a Hurricane from Pat O’Brien’s at 3:30 a.m. CT, I’ll be sure to let everyone know. Also, if I see someone walking around poking needles into a Patrick Mahomes voodoo doll, I’ll definitely be picking the Eagles.
Anyway, if this pick sounds like an incoherent mess, that’s because I wrote it at 1 a.m. after attending the annual spectacle known as Super Bowl Media Night. I ran into K.C. Wolf, who told me to pick the Chiefs. And then I later bumped into Eagles mascot Swoop, who demanded that I take his team.
Next year, I might just let one of the mascots make my pick.
Anyway, what all of this means is that I feel like I am now 100 percent prepared to make this pick.
So who am I taking in this game?
Let’s get to the pick and find out.
Also, since I’ll be in New Orleans this week, feel free to start following me on Facebook or Twitter or Instagram, you won’t regret it. However, I might eventually regret my Super Bowl pick. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Super Bowl LIX pick
Kansas City (17-2) vs. Philadelphia (17-3)
Date: Feb. 9 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
It’s fitting that the NFL season is coming down to these two teams, because no one has been more unbeatable than the Chiefs and Eagles. On the Eagles’ end, they’re 15-1 in their last 16 games and that only loss came by three points in a game where Jalen Hurts missed three quarters due to a concussion. On the Chiefs’ end, they’ve gone 22-1 in the past 23 games that Patrick Mahomes has started, and more importantly, they’ve won 14 straight games with Taylor Swift in attendance. If Taylor shows up, the Eagles might just want to forfeit.
This is a bizarre Super Bowl because I’m pretty sure most of America is rooting for both teams to lose, which I don’t think can actually happen. America is also rooting for the refs to lose, or to at least not help the Chiefs as much as they usually do.
Although half of America is convinced that the refs are helping the Chiefs, I don’t think it’s going to matter in his game. When I look at both teams, I feel like one definitely has a slightly better roster than the other. Offensively, I think the Eagles have a better offensive line, a better running back, better wide receivers and although I think Travis Kelce gives Kansas City the edge at tight end, he’s not in his prime anymore, so it’s not a huge edge (Kelce has averaged 68 yards per game this postseason while Dallas Goedert has averaged 62.7).
The only huge advantage the Chiefs have on offense is at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is going for his fourth Super Bowl ring and if he gets it, he’ll become just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win at least four Super Bowls, joining Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw.
Although Mahomes is the better quarterback in this game, the Eagles might be able to negate that advantage, because they’re coming off a season where they had the best pass defense in the NFL. The Eagles surrendered just 174.2 passing yards per game during the regular season, which ranked No. 1 in the league during the regular season.
If Mahomes can get the Chiefs passing offense going against the Philly defense, then you have to like Kansas City’s chances. For Mahomes, the magic number might just be 230: The Eagles only allowed 230 passing yards or more in six games this season and they went 3-3 in those games. On the other hand, they went 14-0 when surrendering less than 230 yards. As for Mahomes, his only loss as a starter this season came in a game where he went WAY under 230 (He threw for just 187 yards in Kansas City’s loss to Buffalo.
Basically, this isn’t going to be an easy matchup for Mahomes, but that might not matter because he seems to thrive in almost any situation he’s put in:
He’s 3-0 in the playoffs when facing the NFL’s top-ranked passing defense.
He’s 3-0 when wearing white in the playoffs.
He’s 8-0 when facing Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
He’s 15-0 in domes. THE MAN HAS NEVER LOST INDOORS.
So although I only think the Chiefs have one major positional advantage on offense, it’s clearly a big one.
I feel like the Chiefs also have one other huge advantage over Philly, and that’s the coaching staff. I think it’s safe to say that Andy Reid is the best coach in the NFL and if there’s one time when it’s almost impossible to beat him, it’s when he’s coming off a bye. Giving Andy Reid an extra week to prepare is like giving Joey Chestnut an extra 60 seconds to finish three hot dogs. it’s almost unfair (Reid is 33-7 in his career with an extra week to prepare for a team. Also, Mahomes is 14-2 after having a bye week).
The Chiefs also have Steve Spagnuolo, who is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL right now. The problem for Spags is that if there’s one quarterback he hasn’t been able to figure out, it’s Jalen Hurts.
- The best passing game of Hurts’ regular-season career? That came against the Chiefs (He threw for 387 yards in a a 2021 game against the Chiefs).
- The best passing game of Hurts’ postseason career? That also came against the Chiefs (He threw for 304 yards Philadelphia’s 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII).
If there’s one thing I feel sure about in this game, it’s that the Chiefs are NOT going to let Saquon Barkley beat them. No running back has EVER rushed for 100 yards against the Chiefs in a playoff game under Steve Spanuolo (That’s an 18-game streak). If you include the regular season, the only player who topped 100 yards during against Kansas City in 2024 was Lamar Jackson, who obviously is not a running back.
The Chiefs will do everything they can to slow down Barkley and that’s why I think this game is going to come down to how well Jalen Hurts plays. One reason Hurts has been so good is because DeVonta Smith seems to go off every time he faces a Spagnuolo defense. In three career games, Smith has averaged 6.7 catches and 107 yards per game against the Chiefs. It’s almost like the Chiefs are so determined to stop other parts of Philadelphia’s offense that they end up letting Smith go wild.
If there’s one team in the NFL that I’ve had a good read on all season, it’s the Chiefs. Since their Week 6 bye, I’ve gone 14-0 picking their games straight up and 11-3 against the spread. In the wild-card round, I predicted that they’d score exactly 23 points against the Texans and that’s what happened. In the AFC title game, I predicted that they’d beat the Bills by exactly three points and that’s what happened.
The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls, and well, there’s a reason that’s never happened. At some point, you run into a team that’s designed to beat you and I feel like the Eagles match up with the Chiefs better than any team Kansas City has faced this season.
Is that the Philadelphia Symphony Orchestra I hear? I think it is.
I’m starting to hear that song in my sleep, but I don’t care, I’m taking the Eagles.
The pick: Eagles 34-24 over Chiefs
Record picking Eagles games this season: 11-9
Record picking Chiefs games this season: 17-2 (My best record picking any team)
Last Week
Best pick: Two weeks ago, I predicted that the Chiefs would beat the Bills by exactly three points in the AFC Championship game and guess what happened? The Chiefs beat the Bills by exactly three points in the AFC Championship game. Now, did I know that the Chiefs were going to get the benefit of every single call in the game? Of course, I did. It’s the Chiefs.
That being said, the Bills only have themselves to blame. Back in 2017, they traded away the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft to the Chiefs and then the Chiefs used that pick to draft Patrick Mahomes. So if you want to blame the Chiefs’ dynasty on someone, don’t blame the refs, blame the Bills.
Worst pick: I went 2-0 picking the conference title games, so there is no worst pick this week. Actually, I take that back, I’ve been making fun of myself for 20 straight weeks in this section and I can’t let that streak end now. For my worst pick, let’s go all the way back to my preseason predictions: Back in September, I predicted that the Super Bowl would be an all-cat affair between the Bengals and Lions. Well, I now hate cats because my pick totally bombed. The Bengals were the best bad team in 2024 (or were they the worst good team? I’m not sure) and the Lions choked in the divisional round. Next year for my Super Bowl pick, I’ll be automatically going with the Chiefs in the AFC and then I’ll pick an NFC team out of a hat.
All right, guys, I have some sad news. This was my final picks column of the season, which means I am now going to go into hibernation and do nothing for the next seven months. Just kidding, that’s not how things work. I’ll still be writing over the next seven months, but the picks won’t be returning until September. If you can’t wait that long, then I highly suggest you sign up for our NFL newsletter, which I’m in charge of. It’s basically the offseason version of this picks column except without the picks. It comes to your email box every weekday and you can sign up by clicking here (Just look for the Pick Six newsletter).
If you sign up, I’ll see you soon. If you don’t sign up, I’ll see you in September for the opener, but you should sign up.
Picks record
Straight up for AFC and NFC title games: 2-0
SU overall in playoffs: 8-4
Against the spread for title games: 1-1
ATS overall in playoffs: 5-7 (1-5 in wild-card round, 4-2 since then)
Final 2024 regular-season record
Straight up: 180-92
Against the spread: 140-126-6
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably well into his third Hurricane at Pat O’Brien’s.
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Author: John Breech
February 4, 2025 | 10:35 am
